janetjanet998

I will bore you all with my concern for this area.. The area Below is called the Levee district of East Peoria....At one time it consisted of nothing but Caterpillar Manufacturing Buildings... if you look at Google maps you can see these buildings and several small blocks of homes (built for the CAT workers orginally)..there may be 150 homes in the area...the area west of Main street and south of Camp is this levee district.. this is also known as the "bottoms" There are still several large active CAT buildings but the ones on the NE side have been torn down and replaced with Costco, Target, Gordmans and many other commercial buildings ...in the past 10-20 years They still assemble all the Large CAT dozers here worldwide (building SS) ..which can seen stored on Google earth anyway that levee isn't the best.. and the flood 5 years ago they shut down all the CAT buildings and people started to flee the homes I don't recall where i saw it but someone was quoted as saying the river would flood all the way to main street before the levee was there...there was rumours of it leaking in 2013 old news articles from 2013 Caterpillar shuts down East Peoria plant amid flooding Caterpillar Inc. shut down its East Peoria campus on Sunday as the water level of the Illinois River continues to raise. "The company has been and will remain in contact with local authorities to continue monitoring the situation and will communicate with employees and other stakeholders about when the East Peoria campus will re-open and when employees would be expected to return to their normal work place," https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-xpm-2013-04-22-chi-caterpillar-shuts-down-east-peoria-plant-amid-flooding-20130422-story.html Residents in East Peoria Bottoms Packing Up https://www.centralillinoisproud.com/news/top-local-news/residents-in-east-peoria-bottoms-packing-up/94570766

New crest at PIA 28 feet Monday and still be above 27 into Thursday again that is without any more rain factored in Historic Crests (1) 29.35 ft on 04/23/2013 (2) 28.80 ft on 05/23/1943 (3) 28.70 ft on 03/23/1979 (4) 28.40 ft on 03/07/1985 (5) 27.94 ft on 03/14/2009 (6) 27.40 ft on 12/09/1982 (7) 27.10 ft on 03/23/1982 (8) 27.09 ft on 06/30/2015 (9) 27.06 ft on 09/20/2008 (10) 26.86 ft on 03/03/1997

IL river: Looks like Morris crested at 23.04ft a few hours earlier and just under 1/2 foot of the forecast from the morning 8th all time DVN long range ONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2019 BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS CONTINUING THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEK, SO INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS. VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS APPEARS TO BE A CLASSIC MADDOX SYNOPTIC FRONTAL-TYPE HEAVY RAINFALL SITUATION. THERE WILL BE A DEEP TROUGH ANCHORED IN THE ROCKIES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS TREMENDOUS MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG BAROCLINIC EAST-WEST ZONE WILL BE RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM AIR ADVECTION/STRONG FORCING. THE TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING FORCING AND MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE EVENT, WHICH WILL DETERMINE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN. IT IS ALSO TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.

No they were calling for 23.5 two days ago......bumped it up to 27.5 yesterday... based on higher then expected rainfall and forecast rainfall the next 24 hours or so...(ie todays) also need to keep an eye on the hyrographs upstream to see of they meet the expected crest (Morris today and Lasalle later)..both of those locations had the crest lowered 1/2 foot today usually here the crest is 4 or so after the heaviest rain stops upstream... they have delayed the crest here until Sunday night now which makes more sense also the IL river from Henry downstream is very slow reacting ...especially form PIA downstream ..it won't fall off the crest for a couple of days... and when there is no rain after a crest the steepest slope is only a fall of around .4 to .5 feet per day starting 4 days or so after the peak I suspect the river will crest 27.2 ish monday. I am basing this slightly lower crest because todays "secondary" rains will fall mostly south of the basin... so the total rains of last night and today will be slightly less then expected I suspect the river will be above 26 all next week ........without any more rain..so that will be the starting point for the rains it was 15.4 ft at the start of this deluge The Hydro forecasts are tricky and always change and seem to be behind "real time" ..and the IL river basin is rather narrow so any outflows pushing the expected precip in or out of the basin is unpredictable The media will also base their info off the hydro forecast Don't surprised if you see crazy numbers starting Sunday evening as the forecast precip for Monday and Tuesday start to come into play Trust me if we get widespread 2-3+ inches of rain just upstream next week it will break the record..that is exactly what happened in the Quad cities If the max falls further upsrteam closer to Jolietr area it will flatten the crest for a longer period but we prob won't break the record..but that will just keep the danger going for the longer term better hope it stays south..and the high over the northenr plains will push the storm tracks south after mid week the 12z CMC is really troubling over the next 10 days with 4-7 inches ..12z GEFS mean 2-2.25 inches inthe basin...with the heaviest south towards OH river would someone post the EURO totals thanks

not counting today 1/2 -2/3 inch or so 4 day rainfall PERFECT for the maximum affect for the IL at PIA.. (Marshall. Putnam , nothern Livingston then the I-80 counties from Princeton to Joliet...with other less important areas of the Basin for PIA impact upstream from these area also getting hit..(FOX, Des Plaines, Kankakee etc)

I think we will have RECORD flooding here in Peoria on the IL river .... Crest already expected to be very high early next week 27-27.5 feet .. models show active pattern again next week and if the heavy rains fall upstream ,,then we are in trouble here record is 29.4 set just 5 years ago

surprised this thread is dead Record flooding now expected on the MS river at Quad cities breaking the 1993 record FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ROCK ISLAND LD15. * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. * AT 8:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.6 FEET AND STEADY. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST. * RECENT ACTIVITY, HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL NOW PUSH THE RIVER TO A HISTORIC CREST IN THE QUAD CITIES. * FORECAST, RISE TO 22.7 FEET THIS EVENING, THEN BEGIN FALLING. * IMPACT, AT 22.7 FEET, WATER IS AT THE BASE OF THE SOUTH EMPLOYEE ENTRANCE OF THE QUAD CITY TIMES BUILDING.

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 301853Z - 302100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CAN BE EXPECTED. WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. THE AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F. MLCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE BY THE RAP. IN ADDITION, THE RAP HAS MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ESTIMATED IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE EXACT TIMING OF INITIATION. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ECHOS IN THE VICINITY OF STEPHENVILLE. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A STORM WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN 20Z AND 21Z. AFTER THAT, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WITH A CLUSTER MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO AREA, POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE RED RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

I'm sure the locals already know this...but southern/central VA could use another radar site

6 or 7 TOR warned storms now

jinx? TDS NW of NW of Chapel Hill?

lots of warnings the past couple of hours...not many confirmed either TDS or spotter

not sure there ever was a TDS

Robbins, NC.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...WESTERN CLARENDON AND NORTH CENTRAL ORANGEBURG COUNTIES... AT 214 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. MATTHEWS, OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROOKDALE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

Whitmire, SC

* AT 154 PM EDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ORANGEBURG COUNTY AIRPORT, OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF ORANGEBURG, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0906 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 191406Z - 191530Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE MORNING. TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT. DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS GA/FL PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION IS RESPONDING TO THIS FORCING AND IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE; ALTHOUGH, A FEW DISCRETE PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN VA, SEVERAL SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ADVANCE NORTH THIS MORNING AS LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION, BUT REMAINS POSSIBLE WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS.

there are already TOR warmed storms ahead of the line in NC/va....