janetjanet998

DAY 2 VALID 12Z TUE FEB 19 2019 - 12Z WED FEB 20 2019 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS TO PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE RISK REMAINS IN PLACE. THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN STILL FEATURES A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WHEN THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND ACCELERATE TO BETWEEN 45 KTS AND 60 KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE AXIS OF A 160 TO 180 KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO POSITION. THE RESULT WILL BE A WELL-DEFINED MOISTURE PLUME GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES NEAR THE GULF COAST AND LESSER VALUES DOWNSTREAM. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND INCREASING RAINFALL RATES FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WERE SOME CONSISTENT SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT COMPARED WITH EARLIER THINKING...BUT THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY/INTENSE RAINFALL IS STILL ON-TRACK WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES APPEARING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RESULTED IN MAINTAINING THE MODERATE RISK AREA BUT ADJUSTING THE PLACEMENT OF IT AREA SOMEWHAT WEST OF WHERE IT WAS IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS. ALSO NUDGED THE EASTERN PERIHERY WESTWARD. TOO, SINCE IT APPEARS A BROAD SPRAWLING HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FEEDING STABLE AIR ON THE EASTERN FLANK...BUT LEFT THE SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE AT OR NEAR THE BOUNDARIES COLLABORATED ON SUNDAY. THERE OVERALL PLACEMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED IN A FAIRLY NARROW CHANNEL BETWEEN THE DEEP SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. EVEN SO, THERE WAS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND WPC TENDED TO STAY BETWEEN THE WESTERLY ECMWF AND THE EASTERN OPERATIONAL GFS (WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE GFS-FV3). BANN DAY 3 VALID 12Z WED FEB 20 2019 - 12Z THU FEB 21 2019 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY... A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE ON-GOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 3 FORECAST AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE BEYOND 21/12Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS THEY WERE ON DAY 2...BUT THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF OBSERVED AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A MODERATE RISK AREA OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PLACED WHERE THE OVERLAP APPEARED GREATEST FROM THE DAY 2 AND DAY 3 WPC QPF. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM DAY 2 WILL BE EASING EASTWARD OVER PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO DIMINISH A BIT, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY FOCUS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA THAT GETS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON DAY 2...BUT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA OR SOUTHERN TENNESSEE MAY HAVE 48-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES DESPITE MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EACH DAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK TO DECREASE IN RESPONSE. ELSEWHERE, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCREASING SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL WILL MAKE IT AND WHEN/WHERE THE NEXT ROUND INITIATES. AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MODERATE RISK AREA EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PHASE OF THIS LONG-TERM RAINFALL EVENT. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. DID NOT EXTEND EITHER THE SLIGHT RISK OR MARGINAL RISK AREAS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. BECAUSE THIS IS A LONG-TERM EVENT, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG OR NEAR THE AXIS WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CURRENT DAY 2 AND DAY 3 RAINFALL FORECAST, REFER TO QPF AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

after this period a little pattern change...perhaps ..models move a strong high down form Canada...flattening the flow however, models seem to want to rebuild the pattern somewhat (more like strong southern jet) but perhaps more south in the 10-15 day time frame...but some of the members hit you guys again the first graphic is the 10 day mean and the last is the full 16 day run..the increase in t he second image is mostly from some members nailing you guys again

12z NAM still hits the OH river hardest with the first wave Lake cumberland rising rapidly 738.32 as of 6am...up 1.5 feet in 18 hours

trends are still trending NW.....may be the case now where no one gets the huge 8-10 inch amounts but more get 4-5+(i.e. OH valley.too) ..of course convection could slow/stall the north movement of any warm front too 06z GFS now has the final wave max pecip north of the OH river I have noticed WPC forecast lags trends.....and river forecast are based on WPC I think

as of 4pm today Nashville up to 8.07 for the month, including 1.24 today FEB RECORD 12.37 in 1880 Wettest month on record MAY 2010 16.43 (most fell in 2 days) Lake Cumberland rising again at 736.89 ..the watershed got hit pretty good today . outflow still holding at 28,000. record 751 feet and change.. I think odds are increasing it will pass that mark....top of flood pool 760.. do you cut back on outflows to help downstream flooding? hold steady? or increase to 35K to keep the lake from rising faster?

click for latest. (2027z time stamp) .YIKES

18Z NAM with yet another tick NW with the Tuesday/weds system..now nails OH River perhaps a concern is they are expecting the huge rain amounts in SE TN..so they are sending all this water down TN River below Pickwick into the OH river eventually? what is the heaviest falls more NW with the increased flows from the TN too?

Tennessee Valley Authority ‏ Verified account @TVAnews 2h2 hours ago More In the East Tenn. area we are releasing very high flows from the tributary dams (Norris, Cherokee, Douglas, etc.) and expect to make reductions as early as tomorrow to begin storing water. Continue moving tremendous amounts of water down the Tenn. River.

well the 1-3 precip updates on WPC are in so are the 4-5 days and 6-7 but the total day 5 and day 7 not updated yet.(the sum of the above)..both should be interesting to say the least..plus that doesn't include precip before 00z this evening right now weak thunderstorms training up the cumberland river watershed... so far they haven't increased outflow at lake cumberland to the 35,000 planned...lake level down only an inch since the peak yesterday over 3/4 inch at nashville so far today no2 over 7.5 for the month...should break the FEB record with ease now (11-12ish forgot the exact amount)]

small slight risk added for today Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1008 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 Day 1 Valid 15Z Sun Feb 17 2019 - 12Z Mon Feb 18 2019 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...Tennessee Valley/Cumberland Plateau/Southern Appalachians... The 12Z hires model suite suggests multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall over the next 12 hours as multiple shortwave impulses embedded within strong deep layer southwest flow advance off to the northeast this afternoon and evening. In fact, the 12Z NAM and recent runs of the HRRR guidance support a low level jet reaching as strong as 50 kts and nosing in across the southern Appalachians by around 00Z. Strengthening frontogenetical forcing, backing mid/upper level flow aloft (favoring strong deep layer jet-aided ascent) and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with PWATs increasing to near 1.25 inches should favor an axis of moderate to heavy rain across the TN Valley and adjacent areas of the southern Appalachians. A relatively broad Marginal Risk area has been highlight across these areas given concerns at a minimum over locally wet antecedent conditions. However, the heaviest rainfall amounts which may exceed 1.5 inches, through 06Z tonight should be focused over southeast TN, far northern GA and southwest NC where the best nose of the low level jet and at least some modest instability will favor heavier rainfall rates and also working in tandem with stronger orographic forcing. Given the expected rainfall, and wet antecedent conditions, it is expected that ongoing runoff concerns will be further enhanced and become more widespread. also older day 3 outlook Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 326 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 19 2019 - 12Z Wed Feb 20 2019 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY... Heavy rainfall will begin Tuesday afternoon and continue beyond the end of the Day 3 forecast period on Wednesday morning...with much of the 17/00Z guidance showing an axis of 2 to 5 inches of rainfall by the end of the Day 3 forecast period at 12Z Wednesday. Given expected rainfall rates and training of cells/repeat convection, WPC hoisted a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall. A system moving out of the Southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains will induce falling surface pressure over the southern tier of states on Tuesday. Low level winds become southerly along the Gulf Coast and accelerates to between 45 kts and 60 kts by Wednesday morning. The low level jet and the associated moisture transport vectors are expected to peak between 4 and 5 standardized anomalies ahead of the system...and maximum precipitable water values increasing to near 1.75 inches along the Gulf Coast. Rainfall is expected to become more widespread with rainfall rates increasing Tuesday night due to increase low level moisture in addition to mid level shortwave energy sweeping in from the west. Aloft, the entrance region of a 160 kt to 180 kt jet will set up increasing amounts of divergence/difluence by the end of Day 3...with increasing threat for flash flooding from either cell training or multiple rounds of convection at any given spot. WPC QPF opted for a position a bit east of the 16/12Z ECMWF moisture/QPF axis (and certainly more east of the 17/00Z ECMWF run)...but not as far east at the 17/00Z operational run of the GFS largely based on the bias of each model. The idea to not be as far east as the 17/00Z GFS was supported by the 17/00Z run of the GFS-FV3 which tended to offer more support to the 16/12Z ECMWF idea. Over time, the system becomes increasingly convective and the axis of heaviest rainfall pivots from a southwest-northeast orientation on Tuesday morning to one more south-north early Wednesday morning. This is the beginning of a prolonged period of heavy to excessive rainfall event which is expected to continue well beyond the end of the Day 3 forecast. For precipitation forecasts for Thursday and beyond, refer to graphics and dicussions from the WPC Medium Range section.

12z NAM another inch NW bump on the "tuesday night" wave 3+ inches over central KY..most of guys about an inch edit GFS too (in thru 69 hr)

I think the GFS and GEFS had a NW flow for a few runs after next weekend for a bit yesterday,,but seems more flat now..and in end of the run is back tiothe same pattern

Hunstville ... AS ONE WOULD EXPECT FROM GUIDANCE 3+ DAYS OUT, THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL NOW APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO THE STALLING FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL 2-3" OF RAIN WILL FALL IN THIS PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK, WHICH MAY INTRODUCE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD WITHOUT RAIN. RAIN TOTALS FROM TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD 5-8", WITH ISOLATED AREAS POTENTIALLY 10"+. IT IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 200-500 J/KG OF CAPE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONGER CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. ALL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN ABNORMALLY CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN US TROUGH, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY RETREAT AGAIN OVER THE TN VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG STORMS NEXT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ESTIMATED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE 1-2" ON TOP OF WHAT WE EXPECT THIS WEEK. CURRENT ANALOGIES BEING USED ARE THE FLOODING EXPERIENCED ON CHRISTMAS IN 2015, AND POTENTIALLY AS BAD AS THE SPRING FLOODS OF 2003.

00z NAM NW with the first wave.(well second wave if you count tomorrow as the first)..max of 3.25 inches or so in southern KY thru 84 hour still 1.5 to 2.5 over much of eastern TN very little of it falls outside the OH valley watershed (aka south of TN river) and more over KY near the river itself

info on the 2003 event The Major to Record Flooding of May 2003 across East Tennessee During the four day rain event (beginning at midnight on May 5th and ending at midnight on May 8th), a bull’s eye of over twelve inches of rain was reported in McMinn County, TN at both Etowah and Athens. The heaviest rains fell during the first 35 hours (midnight May 5th through 11:00 P.M. May 6th), where 11.6 and 11.1 inches fell at Etowah and Athens, respectively. Storm total rainfall of greater than six inches fell somewhere in each county south of a Sevier to Morgan County line. In the Little Tennessee River and Hiwassee River basins, greater than nine inches fell during the entire event. All of this water drained into Watts Bar and Chickamauga Lakes, which eventually flowed down to Chattanooga. https://www.weather.gov/mrx/may03flood

well yesterday it was reported flows would be reduced from Kentucky lake and Barkley into the OHIO river...so far outflows from the combined dams have only dropped from a combined 323,000 cfs to 280,000 cfs which is still a huge amount they also are still releasing 177,000 from Pickwick I (was 114K 2-14) into basically the start of Kentucky Lake...and the downstream hydrography suggest they may increase it? plus another 10K from buffalo and Duck the Cumberland river into Barkley is at 74,000 bfs at Dover, so a combined 261,000 cfs plus local runoff going into Ky lake and Barkley) ...180,000 out the OH river will crest soon at Cairo at 52 feet, the 20th highest on record (61.7 2011) and hold steady for 5- 6 days before falling that is WITHOUT most of next weeks rain factored in.....which is creeping more north into more of the OH valley ,,,each run... you can bet they are heaving heated discussions on what to do with all of the water...I suspect they will store it in Kentucky and Barkley to a point until the OH river crest passes... Kentucky lake level 353.9 and slowly rising now,,,normal summer pool is 359 I think the record is 372 or something in 2011 when they stored It until the OH crest passed.. ----- lake Cumberland 736.90. looks like it crested at 736.94...with 28,100 cfs outflow ...as of yesterday they were going to increase that to 35,000 after they build flood walls (record 40K) Dale hollow, just downstream is releasing 5,000 cfs the max combined allowed release is 40K I think.... note: Nashville needs 5.55 inches to break the monthy record

Wolf Creek Dam increasing releases to drawdown Lake Cumberland NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Feb. 15, 2019)– The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District plans to increase releases at Wolf Creek Dam in Jamestown, Ky., as soon as conditions allow in an effort to drawdown the water level at Lake Cumberland. Water managers at the Nashville District headquarters in Nashville, Tenn., said Wolf Creek Dam is currently discharging water at a rate of 28,000 cubic feet per second, but plan to increase to 35,000 cfs as soon as conditions allow. The current elevation at Lake Cumberland is the highest observed since April 25, 1998 when the pool crested at 742.44 feet. The pool of record is 751.69 set in May 1984. In 2019 inflows are averaging 33,270 cfs and the lake has risen 19 feet Wolf Creek Dam last discharged water at a rate of 35,000 cfs in March and April of 1997. The flow of record from Wolf Creek Dam is 40,000 cfs in January 1974. River View Road had not been developed at that time. https://www.dvidshub.net/news/310958/wolf-creek-dam-increasing-releases-drawdown-lake-cumberland Local dams to release less water, hope to reduce flooding impact downstream (KY lake and Barkley into OH river) As the Ohio River reaches its peak, Looney says less water will be released out of the dams, causing lake levels to rise above typical summer levels. He says that should also help reduce the impact of flooding downstream. https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/2019/02/14/local-dams-to-release-less-water-hope-to-reduce-flooding-impact-downstream/

Tennessee Valley Authority 53 mins · The River Forecast Center is tracking significant rainfall with numerous rounds of heavy rain beginning as early as Monday and continuing through the week. Most of the heavy rain is expected Tuesday through Thursday. We are preparing by increased releases from the tributary reservoirs like Norris, Douglas, and Cherokee to create as much storage space as possible. On the main stem Tennessee River, reservoirs are being pulled down to below winter pool to have some storage and handle local inflows. We continue to work with the US Army Corps of Engineers to help reduce flooding on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. This rain event could result in high river flood stages, especially in Alabama and below Pickwick in the Savannah to Johnsonville areas. River stage info: Chattanooga, TN: http://tva.me/XehH50lyZqL South Pittsburg, TN: http://tva.me/8XyT50lyZqK Whitesburg, AL: http://tva.me/ZM9T50lyZqP Florence, AL: http://tva.me/lpmw50lyZqN Savannah, TN: http://tva.me/Eam150lyZqO Clifton, TN: http://tva.me/7Bkb50lyZqM Perryville, TN: http://tva.me/vNt650lyZqQ

it may be off its peak right now but still...... C031-081-070100- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-180407T0100Z/ DE SOTO LA-RED RIVER LA- 754 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL DE SOTO AND CENTRAL RED RIVER PARISHES... AT 754 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER COUSHATTA, OR 21 MILES EAST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 739 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018 LAC031-081-070100- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-180407T0100Z/ DE SOTO LA-RED RIVER LA- 739 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018 ..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE CITY OF COUSHATTA ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL DE SOTO AND CENTRAL RED RIVER PARISHES... AT 738 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COUSHATTA, OR 16 MILES EAST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR COUSHATTA. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

And now has weakened

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 847 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0843 PM TORNADO GRAND PRAIRIE 32.75N 96.98W 01/15/2017 DALLAS TX TRAINED SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO STATE HIGHWAY 161 AND ARKANSAS

Confirmed now

Still nothing confirmed but new warning Dallas county