janetjanet998

following Oroville , DWR said that the peak inflows, or lake level rises, into a lake occur a few hours after peak rainfall rates...then the rate of rise starts to decline without any more rain but .22 feet per hour for a lake the size of Cumberland is crazy, especially at these high levels since it takes more volume of water to raise it per foot the higher it is since the lake is shaped like the letter V the 6pm TVA data is flawed but the NWS river graph hints that may be even higher then a .22 rise between 5 and 6 2/20/2019 3 PM 742.18 25,420. +.18 2/20/2019 4 PM 742.38 25,510 +.20 2/20/2019 5 PM 742.60. 25,470. +.22

I think Corps and river forecast center uses the WPC rainfall maps....if you get training like happened this morning it throws it into chaos, any press releases or forecast released that day are based on the lower general WPC numbers released at 3am...that is why sometimes these people are behind the curve... for example ...look at the Cumberland river level forecast upstream of the lake...even though they were updated this afternoon...they are getting blown away.... Wolf creek Dam was repaired...by putting in a very deep cut off wall to stop seepage and leaking out of the earth part....but at least those leaks and seepage relieved pressure...so it will be interesting to see what happens since the pressure has to go somewhere else... Lewisville Dam near Dallas( big trouble there a few years ago). I know they actually dig pressure release wells...but thats a different set up...(no bedrock there just dirt) I have no idea what will happen if the entire watershed get 5 inches....it will be a nowcast thing to see where training sets up ..again most of the water shed is SE of the lake ..even a few miles north of the actual lake is out of the water shed

I didn't see the Euro map mentioned ,,,but 5 more inches from N MS to Jackson KY sounds like Lake Cumberland watershed more info on the latest With the additional rainfall expected this week, reaching elevation 750 is possible. The pool of record is 751.69 set in May 1984. In the history of Wolf Creek Dam, which spans back to 1950, elevation 745 has been exceeded twice – 747.12 in April 1962 and the pool of record. “This winter has been an unprecedented event in that we continue to see rainfall events and have not had enough consecutive dry days to regain storage in the reservoir, nor have downstream conditions been conducive to increasing discharges from the dam,” said Robert Dillingham, hydraulic engineer in the Nashville District Water Management Section. “It remains a priority for the Nashville District to lower Lake Cumberland and regain the flood control storage in the reservoir as soon as downstream conditions allow.” Dillingham said the Nashville District has made preparations downstream to allow releases from Lake Wolf Creek Dam, which will likely be larger than have been observed in several decades. “Releases from the reservoir will be increased and we plan to lower the reservoir as soon as possible,” Dillingham added. “However, considering March and April are historically the highest precipitation months, it could take several months before Lake Cumberland returns to a seasonal elevation.” https://milfeed.com/2019/02/20/corps-of-engineers-dispels-wolf-creek-dam-safety-rumors/

you can see these wet areas in old youtube videos too...and even when the lake is low..the concrete is stained...similar to if your ceiling ever leaked then dried Nashville District ‏ Verified account @NashvilleCorps Follow Follow @NashvilleCorpsjavascript:void('8') More #NashvilleCorps dispelling rumors today that Wolf Creek Dam in #Jamestown #Kentucky is in danger of imminent failure https://www.lrn.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Releases/Article/1762058/nr-19-006-corps-of-engineers-dispels-wolf-creek-dam-safety-rumors/ … #WaterManagement #DamSafety #USACE #LakeCumberland NR 19-006: Corps of Engineers dispels Wolf Creek Dam safety rumors NASHVILLE, Tenn. (Feb. 20, 2019) – The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Nashville District is dispelling rumors today that Wolf Creek Dam in Jamestown, Ky., is in danger of imminent failure. A local radio station commentator put out false information this morning that Wolf Creek Dam could fail at any time and local residents downstream needed to formulate an evacuation plan. “This is completely false,” said Kyle Hayworth, Dam Safety Program Manager with the Nashville District. “The dam is not failing. There have been no signs of distress with the project, and our dam safety staff has been and will continue to monitor all of the Cumberland River Basin dams throughout this high-water event.” The Corps of Engineers is also aware of a social media video making its rounds that shows water leaking from the concrete face of the dam, and is addressing similar public fears, letting people know there is no reason for alarm. “The water observed seeping out of the concrete is at a joint where drainage systems relieve internal pressures inside the dam,” said Brad Long, acting chief of the Nashville District’s Civil Design Branch. “It is not a dam safety concern. It will likely continue until the pool elevation returns to normal levels.” The Nashville District is posting the very latest updates on its website and on Lake Cumberland’s Facebook page. The public is highly encouraged to seek out these resources for reliable information about water management, operations at the dam, and impacts around the lake.

it is going to a battle with lake Cumberland all spring....the lake this year, and early winter 2018, has peaks and valleys similar to that stair step river crest post,,, but over a longer time span.. but each valley is higher when it starts raining again ..it may peak a few days after it stops raining say early next week....fall 10-13 feet when it is dry for a week....but if it turns wet again it will start at a higher level maybe about where it is now perhaps? better hope after a dry period after next week too..so it can get down closer to the full summer pool 723..only 9 feet from the record and only 19 feet from spilling over the top of the spillway....which may not be in play this time...but if we get a repeat of this in a couple weeks who knows... record outflow is 40,000 ..holding at 25,000 ....down from 29,000 yesterday,,,, so do they dump more water now thinking about the very long term later in the spring? they really can't because of the next storm you mentioned /20/2019 noon 741.62 25,330 2/20/2019 1 PM 741.80 25,330 2/20/2019 2 PM 742.00 25,420

SOMERSET Heavy rains the last few days have pushed Lake Cumberland to a level not seen in more than 20 years. The elevation of the lake surface was 741.62 feet above sea level at noon on Wednesday, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It was last at that level in 1998, when it hit 742.4 feet. Continued rain could push the lake to 750 feet, according to the corps. https://www.kentucky.com/news/state/kentucky/article226520435.html

Cairo crest forecast 54.5 11th all time Paducah 51.5 8th

still no updated crest numbers for the OH Lake Cumberland hit hard, in fact you couldn't ask for a better train set up..most of the watershed is to the SE of the lake and that is exactly the area that got hit with 2-3 inches over much of the basin 10 feet from the record 2/20/2019 9 AM 741.06 25,150 2/20/2019 10 AM 741.26 25,240 2/20/2019 11 AM 741.42 25,240 2/20/2019 noon 741.62 25,330

Lake cumberland stats (last column outflow) ..getting trained now 10.8 feet from record high,,,only the 8th time above 740 feet 2/20/2019 6 AM 740.75 25,060 2/20/2019 7 AM 740.84 25,060 2/20/2019 8 AM 740.94 25,060

12z NAM hits them with another train tommrow night/friday too..

the seems to be a loosely organized convective system over MS. with he head near the MS/TN/AL state line .the warm front of this is what is training over central TN..up the cumberland basin..the "cold front" is pushing more east but still training later it looks like lake cumberland rising rapidly now 1-2.5 inches fell along the OH river last night the levels at Paducha and Cairo are spiking well above forecast points now flash flood warnings for nashville

1.4 at KCHA so far 2.24 KHSV there is a precip min north of this from Nashville to lake Cumberland watershed...between the more heavy precip near the MS river 00z NAM troubling for central TN...in.later periods(may change to a different location)

they have cut back on flows from Cumberland. now down to 25,000 cfs from 29K...will be interesting to see if they increase again once the first slug of precip passes lake level as of 4pm 740.22. for some reason the river gauge on the NWS site is below the TVA gauge ...the TVA page updates in batches and is delayed but you can see the 15 min rises on the NWS river gauge in real time (hr delay) under tabular data not much news out of TVA or the media about the lake level....internet rumblings and rumors last weekend said the Corp expects tto hit 745...but that was before the higher then expected rain that fell over the weekend I can tell you it its going to go higher then 745....epsecially if any training sets up over the watershed.. DWR( CA version of TVA) was always behind the curve on Dduring Oroville and said it wouldn't go over the emergency spillway when it was obvious it was.. DWR calculates inflow into their lakes but taking the known out flow and the change in lake level per hour using a known chart....TVA doesn't do that to at least doesn't makes it public

Lake Cumberland 740.08 and still rising without any new rain I hope they reset the radars total storm totals after the bright banding is over..I forsee people on social media sites pointed out the inflated amounts flash flood warnings north central MS.... for some reason they didn't increase the OH river crests today/// it's nowcast time....I suspect the front will get hung up more then modeled KMSL already over 3/4 on an inch already

12z models so far keep the training storms along and west of the MS river out of the TVA system the first event,,but NAMS sometimes too far NW NOTE: radars will likely be bright branded at the beginning of this event so precip amounts will be overdone the further you get from the radar site EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 948 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2019 DAY 1 VALID 15Z TUE FEB 19 2019 - 12Z WED FEB 20 2019 1500 UTC UPDATE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. ORAVEC ...A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS BETWEEN THE ARKLATEX AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY... LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/MID-SOUTH/OHIO VALLEY... THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS MOISTURE SURGING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH ON AN 850 MB JET OF 50-70 KTS, WHICH ADVECTS A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5-1.75" NORTH ACROSS LA INTO SOUTHEAST AR AND ADJACENT MS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ASCENT IS AIDED BY INCREASING DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND INCREASING RAINFALL RATES IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THE 18Z & 00Z GFS GUIDANCE, INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) ECLIPSES 1000 KG/(M*S), WITH ITS NARROWNESS INDICATING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME QUALIFIES AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH INCREASINGLY FAVORS CELL TRAINING WITH TIME. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RISES TO 60-80 KNOTS. MESOCYCLONES ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE INCREASINGLY FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF A COLD TROUGH SQUALL LINE ONCE THE 850 HPA FLOW STARTS TO VEER TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WITHIN THE SURFACE LOW'S WARM SECTOR, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN MS, WHERE A LESSER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK HAS BEEN INDICATED. A TOTAL OF 3-4" APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 5-6" RANGE POSSIBLE PER THE MODEST SIGNAL SEEN IN THE 00Z MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. IN NORTHERN LA, NORTHERN MS, EASTERN AR, AND TN, HOURLY TOTALS IN THE 1-2" RANGE SHOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST (DESPITE THE 00Z HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATING LOWER). THIS, ALONG WITH TWO WEEK PRECIPITATION OF 300-500% OF AVERAGE SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR, TN, KY, AND THE OH VALLEY RESULTED IN MAINTAINING THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM CONTINUITY WITH COSMETIC CHANGES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREAD IN REGARDS TO THE QPF IN GENERAL WITH THE 00Z NAM THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST -- AS USUAL -- WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN REGIONAL, 00Z ECMWF TO SOME DEGREE, AND 18/00Z GEFS-BASED QPF REFORECAST WERE MORE EASTWARD. WHEN ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE CONCERNING WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT WERE EXPECTED, THIS BROADENED THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOOTPRINT FROM CONTINUITY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN REGIONAL AND QPF REFORECAST. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO TN WITH TIME, WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST HOURLY RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, RAINFALL SHOULD BE OF LONGER DURATION DUE TO MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH HOURLY TOTALS CLOSER TO THE 0.5" RANGE SO DID NOT ALLOW THE MODERATE RISK AREA TO SHIFT VERY FAR INTO KY. COORDINATED WITH THE WINTER WEATHER FORECASTER TO ATTEMPT TO DELIMIT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS. ROTH DAY 2 VALID 12Z WED FEB 20 2019 - 12Z THU FEB 21 2019 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY MOTNING... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIFNALL FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ..SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SHOULD BE ON-GOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD, AIDED BY A WELL DEFINED MOSITURE PLUME COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...GOOD MID-LEVEL FORCING AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. MAINTAINED THE ON-GOING MODERATE RISK AREA IN PARTS OF ALABAMA WHERE THERE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE DAY 1 AND DAY 2 PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN ON DAY 1, WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 2 INCHES. THE SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT REFLECTS THE HIGHER GROUND MOISTURE CONTENT AND REDUCED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE MODERATE RISK REMAINED WHERE OVERLAP OF HIGHER QPF OCCURS, BUT THE INCREASE IN FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES FURTHER SOUTH IN BOTH MS/AL LEADS TO ONLY A SLIGHT RISK DESPITE SIMILAR RAINFALL TOTALS TO NORTHERN AL. LATER UPDATES MAY BE MADE AS RAINFALL TOTALS ADJUST, BUT ALSO CHANGES IN FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DUE TO PRIOR RAINS OCCURRING BETWEEN NOW AND THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. BANN DAY 3 VALID 12Z THU FEB 21 2019 - 12Z FRI FEB 22 2019 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY... ..SOUTHERN U.S. AFTER A BRIEF LULL, MORE MOISTURE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO PARTS OF LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL INITIALLY LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH MAXIMUM VALUE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES EARLY IN THE EVENT AND A FEED OF COOLER/DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH, RAINFALL RATES AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE WANING EARLY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWED DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW QUICKLY IT TAKES TO INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...BUT THE CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE AFTER 22/00Z WHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300K TO 310K LEVELS INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER LA/AR/MS RECOVER AND SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES BY 22/12Z. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS AND SUSTAIN RAINFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE WAS SOME DEBATE OVER THE NEED FOR A MODERATE RISK AREA...BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE (BOTH IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT) TO REMAIN WITH A SLIGHT RISK AREA DESPITE THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE CAN STILL BE MADE IF NEEDED. SINCE THE NEXT PHASE OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND BEYOND, REFER TO FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS PREPARED BY THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

well with light rain moving into the southern TVA area..lets call the event started....it may rain continuously somewhere in watershed (TVA/OH) the whole week.....best chance for a break in between systems on Thursday as the firehose weakens and heads south before the next wave lake Cumberland as of 10pm last night 739.52 should hit 740 this morning..record 751.7ish. 2.5-3.5 inches basin wide should break it if outflows remain 29,000ish....any training ..all bets are off OH river crest without the big weekend system (both points running ahead of last nights forecast points) Paducah 49.5 cairo 53 both top 18 all time crests (even a slight increase will move up the list fast) Lake Barkley/KY lake levels about 755.1 feet. summer pool 759. record 772ish..outflows into OH 282,000 cfs the weekend event looks troubling because there is potential of the front to get hung up , usually poorly modeled, due to convection and training.....

They have have increased flows out of Barkley again to 100K this evening....Ky lake still 188K... So 288,000 total into the OH...ALOT....for reference 600K (record) was the max outflow after the may 2010 event.. TVA page now says 238K from Kentucky alone expected on the 2OTH that wasn't the plan two days ago( see news article in my earlier post). I assume since the new crest on the OHIO will be higher and later....dumping out water now won't increase the peak so they want to ditch as much as possible util the crest gets closer

so yesterday the TN river at Savannah was expected to rise to 390 feet (major 387) the 24th . just updated now says 385 and change....so they either plan on releasing less water from pickwick or expected less rainfall....or maybe both

lake Cumberland now at 739.08 ft and rising up 2 feet the past 24 hours outflow 28,720....flow at Cumberland river at williamburg KY upstream 18,000 cfs expect to hit 27,000 by weds and hold above 24,000 all week there is obviously other inflow then the Williamsburg number but I think you get the point if other words inflow will be increasing going to get really interesting

you will briefly get hit with the WF...(heavier west).but then likely a break...a big key for you is how much the firehose get pushed into north GA out of the watershed Thursday for a bit(6-9 hours maybe) before it heads back north with the next wave..

yep....2 days ago it looked like SE TN was going to get 8 inches ..so they sent all this water down the river..it has to get into KY lake at some point...and then inot the OH river..so far not much reduction at Kentucky/Barkley but now areas more NW we get into the action too

I assume (EURO) that some of that precip over central MS and AL is from the later system next week...better not have a north trend with that into the TVA watershed again

with some for rain factored in ..I believe 48 hours so thru 12z weds... creast raised to 53 feet from 52 feet at Cairo next monday will TVA hold more water back now or later? looks like they are not slowing down the outflow that much .. huge amounts of water are planned to be dumped from the TN river into Kentucky lake this week

I'm in Peoria IL..I just track and follow extreme weather events as a hobby(30+ years) , (ie the Oroville Dam mess and houston Harvey flooding) this is a unique situation...due to the record wet last year...and the fact soils are wet and runoff already very high...and with this system dumping so much water over a large area..at least it isn't later in the spring and lakes are closer to their summer pool already...the flip side that no green vegetation to help soaked up some of it yet.. the pattern better break after this .... 12z GVSFV3 nails Kentucky lake area 6-7 inches and you guys still 4-5 ....

thru this weekends system..note: two days ago models wanted to blast a huge high from Canada down shutting this off..got delayed.....now trends are for more rain next week at least for southern parts of your area ....