janetjanet998

nah....I remember old school high risk CAP bust days when literally almost nothing happened

I think both are now outflow dominated ...I can see the gust front on KFDR and both may be north of that boundary

Yes it seems..being helped by outflows...seems like the boundary is now in the NW side of the Metro...

some sign of new development NW of Lawton that may try to make it into the Western Metro..lets see if the have the same issue if they develop

Thats the issue.... also there was supposed to be many discrete supercells over southern OK at this time in the open warm sector that wouldn't have that problem

outflow boundary seen. now on OKC radar sagging SE...cold north winds behind it....Clinton now 59..the Mangum cell and the one behind it very close to it . if it turns more right it may follow it and may go nuts....if it doesn't may spin up before becoming elevated ditto for the cell west of Tulsa though its not as unstable there and looks more outlfowish remember the old runs of the NAM NEST that had some sagging boundary under cutting these cells?

what is that supposed to mean. (it only takes one or two?). are you saying if one strong tornado hits a city rather then one county it somehow verifies? there is no discrete storms right now over Southern OK..HRRR models from earlier had discrete storms there by now in addition to the current ones west the storms over Northern OK are nothing but heavy rain training outflow crap,,and this outflow seems to be sagging SE,,the best shot is the lead storms west of Tulsa if the can turn more east and moving along the boundary instead of to the left of it the latest 21z HRRR merges what supercell there are into lines within 3 hours That isn't to say there won't still be a decent amount of tornadoes some strong....

SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM A POSSIBLE SCENARIO OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OK. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO INVOLVES SEVERAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND APPROACHING THE I-40 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE OKC METRO.

the OK cells look like crap..as another poster mentioned they run north into that boundary..spin up for a bit...then become elevated//also look "grungy"..they need to turn more right the next cell looks to go in Northern kingfisher county no sign of development in the open warm sector besides the dry line back in western TX

sort of an odd grouping with the TOR warned west cell in Texas...two hooking supercells turning right close to merging and an old left splitter form the lead cell is merging with the anvil precip of the TOR warned cell I did notice the latest HRRR seems to merge cells a little quicker then before..some sign of that in the TX panhandle

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND... ..SUMMARY AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES, SOME POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK AND VIOLENT, IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MORE ISOLATED BUT STILL POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING TORNADOES AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND HAIL, IS POSSIBLE IN SURROUNDING PARTS OF TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, AND ARKANSAS. ..SOUTHERN PLAINS A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S YIELDING VERY HIGH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-5000 J/KG. MEANWHILE, SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASING AS A 50-60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGHENS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS LEADING TO A RARE COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS AS DEPICTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION, STRONG LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION, AND APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE FORCING, ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS INTENSE SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MDT AND HIGH RISK AREAS. ANY STORM THAT PERSISTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST CONCERN, INCLUDING A THREAT OF LONG-TRACK AND POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES, WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THESE AREAS, WITH NEW STORMS FORMING THIS EVENING OVER WEST TX AND SPREADING ACROSS NORTH TX AND MUCH OF OK OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME AREAS. ..NORTHEAST STATES RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY, WHERE A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS AREA, AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/KARSTENS.. 05/20/2019

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK...WESTERN NORTH-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 201617Z - 201845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WATCH BEING ISSUED DURING THE 1PM-2PM PERIOD. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUBBLING CUMULUS FIELD OVER WESTERN NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK. RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING LATE THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN OK. UPWARDS OF 4000 J/KG MLCAPE IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK WITH INTENSIFYING WIND PROFILES. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A REASONABLE DEPICTION OF FREE WARM SECTOR INITIATION OCCURRING OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK DURING THE 2-3PM PERIOD. THE OBSERVATIONAL TREND IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MORE PRONOUNCED BANDS OF LOW CLOUD COVER ---PERHAPS INDICATIVE OF HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND/OR LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONES IS SUPPORTIVE EVIDENCE FOR THIS MODEL-BASED DEPICTION. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THESE CLOUD FEATURES WITH EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THEREAFTER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY RARE COMBINATION OF INTENSE LOW-LEVEL SRH, VERY MOIST BOUNDARY, AND EXTREME BUOYANCY. AS SUCH, THE RISK FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..SMITH.. 05/20/2019

LOL

I think surface based convection developing in the TX panhandle now

13z HRRR still discrete and even has discrete cells in the warm sector developing near the Metroplex at 20z moving into southeast OK..I assume developing on a confluence axis in the open warm sector

correct...and the WF didn't make it as far north as forecast...most TN at one time was in the bullesye too (MOD risk)

big increase over southern sections form an hour ago 12z NAM Nest still likes more linear storm mode it seems

I see pros and cons... a lot of schools got hit in the 1974 super outbreak and the recent OKC outbreaks....a bit of bad luck and a large group and kids could be in danger..plus school buses out 3-4pmish on the other hand a newer built school is more sturdy then a home and much better then a mobile home ...plus a lot of parents work and its hard to find day care on short notice ...so early teen aged kids might be home alone even watching their younger siblings without adult supervision in trailers or flimsy homes

PAI got lucky last time the river crested at 28 ft 5th highest ..we missed the first 2 of the 3 heavy rain waves that was forecast 10 days ago..the last wave bumped the river back up to 27 feet after falling to 26.8 or so The river is still 24 feet here..and its already raining upstream 12z GFS ..enough said

local downpours keeping the river steady..00z would kill this area 3-4 inches from here to Chicago new crest forecast adds this * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.0 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.

WPC going with anther 1.75- 2 inches this week..a crest of 28 ft still expected here tomorrow but that is without the rain factored in which may cause a secondary crest..some of that should get into this evenings frecast also the river is running a hair above forecast points so 28.1 or 28.2 look more likely for the "old" forecast Historic Crests (1) 29.35 ft on 04/23/2013 (2) 28.80 ft on 05/23/1943 (3) 28.70 ft on 03/23/1979 (4) 28.40 ft on 03/07/1985 (5) 27.94 ft on 03/14/2009 18z NAM total disaster for this area....with widespread 2-3 inches here and upstream

Was in EP today so I took a drive around the levee district .....I forgot when the river get this high it backups under the levee in front of that IT Building thru the storm drains and indeed water is starting to flood the road there in front of that building ..that is why he will have to work from home it hit hits 29...he won't be able to get into the parking lot..... also farm creek in indeed very high against the north side of the district behind Target and Aldi ...like I said I have seen it go from almost bone dry to a raging deep torrent .....don't think it has ever started at this height then add that same raging deep current crossing my fingers that here and just upstream do indeed get the split,,say only 1 inch versus 3+....ILX even mentions this is the discussion I don't think people around here understand the gravity of the potential situation yet ==================================== Richland farms are the homes in the Levee District aka "Bottoms" No Flood Evacuations In East Peoria…Yet The river in East Peoria was at 25.83 feet, as of 6:45 a.m. Saturday, with a current crest of 28 feet forecast Monday with more rain forecast in the coming week. East Peoria officials Saturday afternoon said evacuations are not recommended at this time. However, if severe flooding continues, residents in the Richland Farms area and those along the river along Main Street and westward will need to have a plan in place for themselves and their pets and have basic supplies ready and provisions for their animals, including food and water. Residents are encouraged to develop a voluntary evacuation plan that can be exercised if an order to evacuate is issued. https://www.1470wmbd.com/no-flood-evacuations-in-east-peoria-yet/ East Peoria city officials and the Fon du Lac Park District are continually monitoring the flooding situation on the Illinois River and the condition of the levee, and recommend residents be proactive by planning ahead in the event of an emergency. https://www.facebook.com/EPCityGovernment/

Pattern recognition suggest a classic southern IA Northern MO MCS turning more ESE and missing PIA to the south and only hitting this area with moderate comma head rains and even less upstream ...as high pressure noses in from the NE...good news after a minor hit here Monday...00Z NAM has huge amounts in MO in an ESE moving MCS the GFS is Meh for heavy rain here with huge amounts well south in the lower MS river valley and another weaker max NW ICON also a shift south CMC splits the goal posts like the GFS GEFS Mean also trending down with only 1.35 or so upstream of me next week with also a hint of a split

I don't remember at what gauge height it over tops back in 2013 the river was originally supposed to crest a little higher then the 29.35. around 30 I think ...CAT moved out all of the inventory dozers and raised important equipment off the floor That is also why people started to flee the homes in the bottoms ,,,, another wildcard: I remember every flood since 1979 and at the height of the crests there wasn't the potential for heavy rains.....I might go over there Sunday to check this out....but after typical downpours, Farm creek can rise from nothing to many feet deep In that location.....Farm creek is what runs along the north side of the Levee district ..well with the river super high Farm creek will likely be backed up and be very high .....so if upstream gets a deluge...will the runoff come close to overtopping the north side of the levee along the creek before the runoff hits the river and spreads out? The IT building you referred too (building AD) is in the NW corner of the levee district about 800 feet from the river and right next to the smaller branch of Farm creek (it splits on two near target) of course we are getting way way way ahead of ourselves ......all depends how much more rain and where