janetjanet998

another .35 last HR at airport.. 2.95 total

Don't think TVA, or anybody for that matter, expected this..the levels of the TN river are spiking up much faster then the gradual increase over the next few days I can only imagine what this is doing the the tributary lakes This is what i was cocerned with for Lake cumberland today...but they are only getting sideswiped

Knoxville Highest rainfall total in one day 6.14"July 16, 1917 as luck would have it timing wise........ it started raining hard at midnight..and the ending frontal storms should hit about midnight 2.60 as of 9am (.42 last hr)

Lake cumberland rise lake increasing....steadty moderate rains...no change to outflow up 1.37 feet or .057/hr last 24 hours ending at 4am 2.4 feet from record...should break late this evening 2/23/2019 3 AM 749.00 34,360 +.05 2/23/2019 4 AM 749.08 34,460 +.08 2/23/2019 5 AM 749.21 34,520 +.13 2/23/2019 6 AM 749.32 34,540 +.11

Heavy steady (not not excessive rates yet) rains the past 6 hours. 2.17 inches time and per hr rainfall 23 07:53 0.42 23 06:53 0.38 23 05:53 0.40 23 04:53 0.27 23 03:53 0.33 23 02:53 0.26 23 01:53 0.11

The little Tallahachie river at Elta MS ( out of TVA area), is now above record stage... 30.54 and still climbing..records go back to at least 1973 29 The post office and businesses and homes in the low lying area near the river in New Albany are flooded. Several homes along County Highway 46 are flooded. Flood water is covering County Highways 46 and 47. flood waters are approaching the level of Highway 355 near Etta

23Z HRRR very is scary for central and SW TN including nashville....the current training band of light-moderate rain turns into training storms

TN River at Savannah forecast crest now 393.81. which would be 3rd all time 1) 401.20 ft on 03/21/1897 (2) 396.11 ft on 03/20/1973 (3) 392.70 ft on 01/02/1927 (4) 392.42 ft on 02/06/1957 (5) 392.29 ft on 02/16/1948 (6) 391.61 ft on 01/13/1946 (7) 390.70 ft on 05/12/2003 (8) 390.42 ft on 12/12/2004 (9) 389.05 ft on 04/10/1936 (10) 389.00 ft on 01/14/1974 392 Second floor of houses on stilts is flooding all along the river. North end of Dorthy Lane at Campsite is beginning to flood. Many houses are flooded at Campsite.

Top 5 crest now expected at Cairo and Paducah on the OHIO 56.5 cario and 53.5 at Paducah this is all depended if the heavy rain one make it more north I think...if not they will be lower they are dumping huge amounts out of the Kentucky Lake and Barkley but they have no choice... 420,000 cfs!! ---------------------------------------- Lake Cumberland 2/22/2019 2 PM 748.20 36,200. +.06 2/22/2019 3 PM 748.26 36,200. +.06 2/22/2019 4 PM 748.30 36,220. +.04

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 212 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019 ...POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING... DISCUSSION LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO MIDDLE TN AT FORECAST TIME. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE WARM FRONT, CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CENTRAL MS AND AL, IS STARTING TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID-STATE AT THIS HOUR. AS IT APPROACHES THE AL-TN STATE LINE THIS EVENING, ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SPUR HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. PW VALUES THAT ARE UNHEARD OF THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY MOISTURE AND IT'S DURING THIS TIME, WHEN WE START TO SEE SOME WARM FRONT-INDUCED CONVECTION BEGIN, THAT IS OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. THE PROBLEM IS, IT'S GOING TO BE DURING HOURS OF DARKNESS. THIS PRESENTS ADDED ISSUES WHEN DEALING WITH FLASH FLOODING: YOU CAN'T SEE IT COMING. THE AREA(S) OF CONCERN HAVE NOT CHANGED. THOSE SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-24 HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT DUE TO THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. I CAN'T STRESS THIS ENOUGH: IF YOU DON'T HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE ALREADY, NOW IS THE TIME TO DO IT. IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA THAT IS ALREADY FLOODED OR YOU KNOW IT CAN FLOOD QUICKLY, HAVE A PLACE OF HIGHER GROUND WHERE YOU CAN GO IN A HURRY TO ESCAPE RISING FLOOD WATERS. PLAN, THEN ACT. DON'T REACT. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE MID-STATE BEFORE THE NOON HOUR TOMORROW. WHILE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK FROM THE RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE ANY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION OF THE FORECAST: HOW MUCH OF A BREAK CAN WE GET? IS THERE ANY CHANCE WE SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS? AND EVEN IF WE DON'T SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, WILL THE WARM AIR ADVECTION START EARLY ENOUGH AND BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW EVENING? BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE WAA WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING 500-800 J/KG INTO AREAS OF MIDDLE TN SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-65. THIS IS TROUBLESOME BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAT WILL BE AROUND. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS HAVE QUITE THE CURVE IN THEM IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT IF WE DON'T REALIZE THE INSTABILITY, WE'RE MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE DEALING WITH A BROKEN QLCS THAT WILL HAVE EMBEDDED ROTATION. ALL OF THAT SAID, HERE'S THE KICKER: WE DON'T NEED WINDS OF 60-70 MPH TO HAVE PROBLEMS TOMORROW EVENING. AS WET AS THE GROUND IS AND WILL BE, WINDS OF 40-50 MPH ARE LIKELY TO TOPPLE TREES JUST AS EASY. SO, NO MATTER THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, IF WE DO SEE ANY WINDS TOMORROW EVENING, IT'LL LIKELY BE A LONG NIGHT. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO DEW POINTS IN THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MS AND NORTHERN AL. IF THEY START CREEPING TOWARDS 55-60 DEGREES, THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THAT MUCH GREATER HERE IN MIDDLE TN. HERE'S THE GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF THIS: MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING AT LEAST 3 DRY DAYS AFTER THIS IS ALL OVER. I'M GOING TO CARRY VERY SMALL POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON AS THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO HOLD THEIR GROUND WITH VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. IF THE EURO VERIFIES, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 5+ DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. FINGERS CROSSED...

HRRR, RAP and 18z NAM products lift the WF north of you without much rain really...everything NW,,,likely too far NW 18z NAMnest destroys the TN/KY state line..NAM central KY 18z RAP clueless

BNA MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN IS STILL SOUTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-24 WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS FALLING THIS MORNING. TO THIS POINT, WE'VE BEEN SPARED ANY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN BY THE FACT THAT WE REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, WHICH IS STILL WAY DOWN IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS KEEPING THE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF US ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THIS IS GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. CONVECTION WILL BE OUR BIGGEST ENEMY IN THIS SITUATION BECAUSE IT MEANS RAIN RATES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM WHAT IS 0.5-1.0 IN/HR (WHICH IS CLOSE TO MANAGEABLE) TO 1.0-2.0 IN/HR OR MORE. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE. THIS MORNING'S RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST IS ONLY GOING TO SERVE TO EXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. IN THE MEANTIME, IF ANY CONVECTION STARTS, FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO COME OUT QUICKER. THIS REMAINS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU HAVEN'T DONE IT ALREADY, PLEASE DEVELOP A PLAN SO THAT YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES HAVE HIGHER GROUND TO RETREAT TO IF FLASH FLOODING BEGINS IN YOUR AREA.

lake Cumberland getting a train of Moderate rain now...models increase the rates overnight in this band (or reform it),,location is the only question...flood warnings for the eastern part of the watershed from rainfall this morning.. (up to an inch) 2/22/2019 8 AM 747.88 35,960 +.04 2/22/2019 9 AM 747.98 35,960 +.10 2/22/2019 10 AM 748.00 35,960 +.02 2/22/2019 11 AM 748.05 35,960 +.05 2/22/2019 noon 748.10 35,960 +.05

so far no heavy rain Current State of Lake Cumberland FEBRUARY 22, 2019 LEAVE A COMMENT The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to monitor stream conditions throughout the Cumberland River Basin and to manage the release of water from its 10 dams, including Wolf Creek Dam on Lake Cumberland, as heavy rain continues to impact the region this week.The basin has received two to five inches of rain over the past four days, four to seven inches of rain over the past seven days, and seven to 12 inches of rain over the past month. The latest forecast from the National Weather Service calls for three to four inches of rainfall in the next 72 hours. At this time, long-term forecasts are more positive with little precipitation expected beyond the next 72 hours. Lake Cumberland’s elevation is was over 746 at the last Corps report late Thursday afternoon. The flood control pool extends from elevation 723 to 760 and is currently 60 percent full. The Corps says the lake will continue to rise for the next several days ahead of the rainfall as inflows currently exceed outflows. Current discharge at the dam is now 35,000 cfs. The pool of record is 751.69 back in 1984. Many of the roadways leading to the lake have been closed off and the public is urged to be cautious when approaching these areas. ---------------------------- Lake Cumberland hits second-highest elevation in history and is expected to keep rising The water elevation at Lake Cumberland has hit a level seen only three times since Wolf Creek Dam was finished nearly 70 years ago, and is approaching a record with continued rain expected. The level as of 8 a.m. Friday was 747.84 feet above sea level, according to the U.S Army Corps of Engineers. The only other times the lake level has topped 745 feet were in April 1962, when it hit 747.12, and in May 1984, when it was 751.69, the record. Under typical conditions, the lake fills to a level of 700 feet to 723 feet by mid-May.

seems hr focus is a little more west for now EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 957 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2019 DAY 1 VALID 15Z FRI FEB 22 2019 - 12Z SAT FEB 23 2019 ...A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF MS, AR, AL AND TN... 15Z UPDATE: LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AXIS AND METEOROLOGICAL SETUP WITH RESPECT TO CURRENT HIGH RISK. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS IN GOES-16, REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC, AND SURFACE/VWP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST GREATER MOISTURE FLUX/CONVERGENCE UPSTREAM AS FAR WEST AS EXTREME EASTERN TX. HI-RES CAMS PARTICULARLY THE HRRR AND ARW/ARW2/NMMB ALSO INDICATE THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRAINING ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY, EVENTUALLY TRAINING INTO AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED OVERNIGHT IN SE AR AND N MS. WHILE, ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE A BIT DRIER OVER E TX, N LA, SW AR, THIS GROWING QPF SIGNAL AND DEEP MOISTURE FLUX (AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT) SUPPORT A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK TO THE TX/LA BORDER. ADDITIONALLY, THE HIGH RISK WAS PULLED WESTWARD, AS WELL, CLIPPING SE AR, WHERE THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACTIVE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS. THE MODERATE RISK WAS PULLED BACK TO THE

they have increased outflow at Wolf Creek up to 39,000 at one point. (all time record 40K)...this has slowed the rise and so far no heavy rain is helping too lake up another 2.71 feet the past 24 hours an average of .0112 per hour..at 4am the lake is .67 feet behind my "overflow post" and not rising the .12 per hour for today....so things looking better...I think they got more aggressive with the outflows when crunching numbers...they implied a week ago ago they had plenty of flood storage and wouldn't increase to 35.000 until it stopped raining...so something changed 2/22/2019 1 AM 747.52 35,860 2/22/2019 2 AM 747.58 35,860 +.06 2/22/2019 3 AM 747.65 39,860 +.07 2/22/2019 4 AM 747.71 35,860 +.06 2/22/2019 5 AM 747.76 35,960 +.05 2/22/2019 6 AM 747.81 35,960 +.05

12z and 18z NAM products= bad 00z = "hold my beer" all depends on placement ..and nowcasting.....NAM with a stripe of 6- 7 inches from Northern MS into TN ..the odd part is it has very little precip in that area thru 06z ..yet heavy rain there now Namnest actually keeps a lot of the max precip south and west of the TVA watershed (west Tn and N MS) no update from TVA about Cumberland since 2..but NWS river data suggest rate of rise slowing to perhaps .1 an hour?

it looks like Corps is finally seeing what I was pointing out and have increased outflows from the Lake Cumberland to 33K..will they keep it up as the system moves in though? On the Friday media report they said they will only increase to 35,000 cfs when "conditions allow" to help downstream flooding....that means they wouldn't do it with heavy rains in the forecast I wonder what changed..mmmmmmm..believe me that they don't want this water going down the river at this point unless they have too for a reason 2/21/2019 noon 746.35 29,380 +.15 2/21/2019 1 PM 746.50 30,700. +.15 2/21/2019 2 PM 746.65 33,060. +.15 this should have been done earlier IMO..Friday they said it would take 48 hours to build a flood wall....so Monday or Tuesday they should have been ready to increase but they dropped it to 25K instead

18z NAM best case for Cumberland as it keep the train south(current obs and short range models agree) and north with the last part ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TN...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DUE TO ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PLUS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL... 21z update... After collaborating with WFOs JAN/MEG/OHX/HUN, a High Risk was assigned to portions of south central TN, northeast MS and far northern Alabama for Day 2. The main reason for the upgrade is the saturated antecedent conditions across these areas. In many spots, rivers are in flood, and the most recent National Water Model showed a large area of very high streamflows from previous activity. The aforementioned offices indicated that as little as 1.00 inches of rainfall in three hours could have significant impacts. As surface low pressure tracks from the TX Panhandle into the Mid MS Valley, a 35/45 knot low level southwest flow transports 1.50 inch precipitable water air (which is between two and three standard deviations above the mean) and 500 J/KG of MUCAPE along a frontal boundary moving north across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. The combination of moisture and instability could result in convection with hourly rainfall rates in excess of 1.00 (as seen in the 12z NAM CONUS Nest and the 12z WRF ARW) over the aforementioned areas. This would be sufficient to cause significant flooding issues where storms training (which is possible, given that the 850-300 mb mean wind becomes better aligned with the propagation vectors). Hayes

if that train sets up the typical WSW to ENE fashion then I assume the cumberland watershed above(SE of the lake) the lake gets that too..or at least a toned down version

well I assumed the rate of rise would level off by now and it looked like that was happening. as the rate fell to .14 feet per hr this morning for a few hours..but the last few hours rate is increasing again( not on TVA site yet but will be soon) It could be the crest wave off the main stem is hitting the lake and this is more then the decline in other inflows.. another wild card is Laruel River lake...this is a dammed up area for Flood control with no spillway in the watershed ..I have seen You-tube videos of it overflowing in the past but can't find any info on its current status...did it just start to overflow? has it been all along? not yet? I'm not sure if TVA is legally bind to keep the combined runoff flows from Wolf Creek, Dale Hollow and the 500 sq miles of local runoff maxed 40.000 cfs..the articles I found just implies that is procedure but as I pointed out they are wasting time and water but not moving outflow up to 35,000 now...as they planned last friday

all going into the lake of course...looks like the river at williamaburg just upstream from that has peaked for now..but a second peak similar to the one today is in the forecast plots...it will go even higher if training happens again .lots of replies on facebook on that post...I think as time goes on more and more people may question if the lake will over flow...amd there will be hype and panic on social media even it is does all that MAY happen is it will spill over a little and really have no more outflow(since by then inflow should be much lower then now) then it does now assuming the shut the gates and just let it go? but it is going to be a battle all spring to get the flood control storage back in the upper Cumberland basin for any huge spring events 2/21/2019 9 AM 745.92 26,040 +.25 2/21/2019 10 AM 746.05 26,130 +.13 A slight uptick in outflow,(about 500 since this morning),this is what happened when it increased to 29K before but just a drop i the bucket to what is needed edit: outflow increased again 2/21/2019 11 AM 746.20 +.15 28,420

Time for for some math ( in a hurry I made have made errors) 2/21/2019 4 AM CST 745.00 25,850 2/21/2019 5 AM CST 745.18 25,940 +.18 2/21/2019 6 AM CST 745.36 25,940 +.18 the lake has risen an average of .18 feet per hour ending at 4am and amazing 4.32 feet..the max rolling 24 period will be higher then that even The corps has a major problem..Dale Hollow 655.25. just downstream, has zero outflow right now...and rising fast too.. up almost 2.95 feet on 24 hours..it overflows at 661 feet..came within inches in a few times in the past..outflow of 5,000 keeps the lake steady it seems,,,but that is 5000 that takes away from Wolf Creek outflow If the Cumberland lake averages .14 an hr rise the next 24 hrs 4 am-4am from that 745 level .14 rise per hour ending 10z Friday that's 748.36 no more rain .12 average rise the next 24 hours 751.24 mod-heavy rains widepread training? .16 the next 24 hours 755.08 record smashed light rain to scattered heavy stuff with the line of storms .14 next 24 hours 758.04 no more rain but still rising fast from old rain .04 per hour the next 24 hours 759.4 no rain .02 per hour the next 24 hours 759.88 no rain .01 per hour the next 24 hours 760.12 lake overspills here 10z thursday Feb 28th no rain now some days like tommrow I may have over estimated rises, and some days underestimated ..but you can take away some one day but add it to the next set of numbets. etc etc ...the lake may still be rising at .08 inch per hour or so before the next batch of rain starts adding to it too The above assumes the basin gets trained again..12z NAM (usually NW) keeps that just SE of the basin 2/21/2019 7 AM 745.50 25,940 +.14 2/21/2019 8 AM 745.65 25,940 +.15

WOW...only 8 feet from the record....still climbing fast....hopefully the train will stay south and the last part north....the GFS is disturbing with 2-3+ inches at 760 it spills over the top of the spillway...(again may not get there this time but later in the spring?) .this isn't Oroville where it spills on to a hillside and erodes it away but still.....there will be no flood control at that point.. if it is like any other situation there is a control plan that you do X, Y, and Z when A, B and C happens the control plan likely says no more then X amount of outflow when there is so many inches of future predicted rains for downstream flood control... that is likely why they dropped outflows to 25K from 29K and have delayed the increase to 35K they mentioned last Friday... but every hour of these lower outflows means an extra hour of 5-10 or even 15K cfs(if they eventually increase to the record 40K) that they will have to make up in the future 2/20/2019 6 PM 742.86 25,560. +.26 2/20/2019 7 PM 743.07 25,560. +.21 2/20/2019 8 PM 743.29 25,650. +.22 2/20/2019 9 PM 743.49 25,740 +.2 2/20/2019 10 PM 743.73 25,660. +.24