janetjanet998

MS river at Saint Louis expected crest of 41.7 tie for 6th highest......that is with only precipitation expected thru 12z ...super wet pattern continues for at least another week 1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993 (2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973 (3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016 (4) 42.00 ft on 04/01/1785 (5) 41.89 ft on 05/22/1995 (6) 41.70 ft on 05/06/2017

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 656 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019 KSC085-220015- /O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190522T0015Z/ JACKSON- 656 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY... AT 656 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF WHITING, MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

NE kansas going nuts...

the old cell has cycled and has a hook again

warned now

still on ground MOC183-189-212330- /O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190521T2330Z/ ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS MO- 624 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL ST. CHARLES AND WEST CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTIES... AT 624 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER HARVESTER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

I think it was a semi embedded supercell for a bit..had a huge hail spike right before it dropped

triple point area of occluded front ....check out STL V AD and surface obs

can't tell if it fell apart or just too close to radar site

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 106 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 130 PM CDT. * AT 106 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIR GROVE, OR NEAR STRAFFORD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF MISSOURI...AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS. DAMAGING GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. ..AR/MO/IL A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MO AND EASTERN OK THIS MORNING. THIS LINE HAS BEEN IN A LULL OF INTENSITY, LIKELY TIED TO LINGERING DIURNAL STABILIZATION. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY TO REJUVENATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, POSING AN INCREASING RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND TRANSIENT QLCS TORNADOES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOW VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND RAPID LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER AR SPREADS INTO SOUTHEAST MO. THIS TREND INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WOULD ALSO POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ..KS IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SPREADING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY, CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KS. BY LATE AFTERNOON, STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CAPE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CAPE AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A FEW SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN KS AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST MO BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

STL area might get interesting later..notice they mention the warm air at 700mb... now .watch the opposite happen with bad luck (hope not) AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...WESTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS. DAMAGING GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. ..SYNOPSIS THE LARGE-SCALE/UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY MEAN TROUGHING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO NORTHERN MX. TWO EMBEDDED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES WILL AFFECT THIS REGIME, THE FIRST NOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEAR THE CO/NM LINE. THIS LEADING LOW SHOULD EJECT EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, IN A CURVING PATTERN. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW -- APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY WEST OF THE OR COASTLINE, WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NEARBY PARTS OF CA/NV. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, A BROAD, SOMEWHAT DUMBBELL- SHAPED CYCLONE WITH FUJIWHARA VORTEX-INTERACTION CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD EVOLVE AROUND THOSE TWO MAJOR/EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS, AND EXTEND FROM CA TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PRONOUNCED RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, 11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, DIFFUSED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST, AND COVERING NORTHWEST OK, THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN KS. THIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A BETTER-DEFINED CYCLONE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN NE. MEANWHILE A BLENDED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN AR INTO NORTHEASTERN OK, WITH A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN OK AND WEST-CENTRAL TX. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP TO A PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN OK TO CENTRAL TX. MEANWHILE THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW ZONE SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND MO, REACHING PORTIONS OF IA/IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..MO/IL TO ARKLATEX A QLCS WITH PERIODIC/EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND BOOKEND VORTICES, WITH A HISTORY OF QUICK-SPINUP TORNADIC/TDS ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN OK, SHOULD PROCEED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK THROUGH THE MORNING, EITHER SIDE OF A MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. REFER TO SPC WATCH 205 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. THE SAME COMPLEX, OR A REDEVELOPED VERSION, IS EXPECTED TO POSE AN EXPANDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE OZARKS, WITH SOME BACKBUILDING OR RE-STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RICH RESERVOIR OF NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE OVER EAST TX. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS A COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO DESTABILIZATION ALL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR, INCLUDING AIR-MASS RECOVERY IN AREAS OF MO PREVIOUSLY COVERED BY STABILIZING OUTFLOW SAMPLED WELL BY 12Z SGF SOUNDING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLANAR PROGS REASONABLY SUGGEST A SOUTHWARD INCREASE IN MLCAPE, FROM THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE OVER PARTS OF MO TO OVER 2000 J/KG IN EAST TX (WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAKER, HENCE MORE-CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT). THE PRESENCE OF A STABLE LAYER NEAR 700 MB APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF A RESIDUAL EML ADVECTED FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND OBSERVED IN PRIOR SOUNDINGS. THIS FEATURE ALOFT, SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY OVER THE OK/TX WARM SECTOR, MAY RESTRICT DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST FORCING -- IN THIS CASE THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT. AS THE LEADING/ROCKIES CYCLONE AND TRAILING TROUGH PIVOT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, MID/UPPER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS REGION, BOOSTING DEEP SHEAR, WHILE THE PASS RESPONSE MAINTAINS OR INCREASES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. AS SUCH, THE PARAMETER SPACE WILL FAVOR BOTH DAMAGING GUSTS (SOME SEVERE), AND OCCASIONAL TORNADOES. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERALL SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE EJECTS/OCCLUDES AND THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES IN THE WARM SECTOR.

looks like we have. repeat but a tad south ...severe warned semi hooky storm over Bixby.....but storms also just SE

theres actually 2 TOR warnings for Tulsa Metro...on west (gusted out now)...one over the east side of the city and also the mini hooking storms south metro

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 906 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHEASTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHWESTERN TULSA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 930 PM CDT. * AT 906 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANNFORD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE... TULSA... SAND SPRINGS... SKIATOOK... MANNFORD... KEYSTONE STATE PARK...

tx BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 843 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN WESTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT. * AT 842 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE COLORADO CITY, OR NEAR COLORADO CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

Tulsa storm showing some signs of a hook...

new cell rapidly getting going just SW of Tulsa...in the open warm sector for a while T-storm warned

got to make sue the boundary doesn't get pushed back north by the LLJ. ....and back into those storms.... seen it happen before

its right in the center of OKC now.shows up on doppler

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 703 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 TXC125-269-210045- /O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-190521T0045Z/ DICKENS TX-KING TX- 703 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL DICKENS AND WESTERN KING COUNTIES... AT 702 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF GUTHRIE, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. TRAVEL WEST OF GUTHRIE ON HIGHWAY 114 IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED. RESIDENTS OF GUTHRIE AND THE FOUR SIXES RANCH SHOULD PREPARE TO TAKE ACTION FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO. edit: update now just a funnel cloud

please don't ban me but BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 653 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK TEXAS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL DICKENS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... WESTERN KING COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT. * AT 652 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH OF DUMONT, OR 14 MILES EAST OF DICKENS, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. TRAVEL WEST OF GUTHRIE ALONG HIGHWAY 114 IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.

on the flip side the storms in western TX still look discrete with hooks ..the 22z HRRR is lost

no in fact is always dangerous when you have a boundary around because it really can increase shear ,,,,but of course you need storms to ride along that boundary that sagging boundary is almost on the NW side the City now

TX ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 627 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK TEXAS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL DICKENS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * AT 627 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SPUR, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. A SECOND STRONG ROTATION WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF DICKENS. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.