janetjanet998

I agree and the situation may be grim: I will focus on Cumberland....rather then TN river...perhaps someone else could do that? 1) Laurel Lake is now full....now 3000 cfs was pushed thru the power plant at times...but the max inflow In these events were in the 10-15K range....with the 1800 over flow now and the power plant it is releasing about 5K outflow into cumberland....but with the bowl now full...if we have a repeat, 8-12K of extra inflow per hour would be flowing into Cumberland in stead of filling up the bowl it overflows at 1018.5 feet..it will fall below that but next time less space before it overflows 2) Cumberland lake looks to make it to 756 at least now....it is clear this evening there are worried about hillside erosion under/near the transmission towers..at outflow 58,000..any increase in outflow would increase that erosion..if that tower tips they might loose the power plant controls and./or the spillway gate controls...??? not sure about that though...went back and looked at the video...if appears they are trying to fill in the eroded area with gravel The had similar issues at oroville on the main spillway ...they were worried about back erosion cutting way at a vital transmission tower so they had to decrease outflow on the damaged main spillway..from 65,000 to 50,000 bfs and in the meantime the lake overflowed and went over the emergency spillway witch started back cutting that away....and almost eroded out the side of the Dam...in that case, since they had no choice, they increased flow to 100,000 on the main spillway to get the level level lower ASAP....the tower ended up being fine in hindsight 3) I mentioned this before but according to the math (at least at these levels) on the US corp page a .01 inch change in lake level hour is about 7400 cfs..for example if inflow is 100,000 and outflow is 26000 the lake would rise .10 that hour.. (100-26)/10 well the flip Side is true...if outflow is 60,000 and inflow ZERO the lake would fall .081 an hour...or 1.95 a day or 13,61 in a week.. well of course inflow won't be zero but in a week if that actually happened would only be down to 740 feet..of course that won't happen 4) max inflow in this event was over 220,000 Cfs.....without the Dam or flood pool...thats coming downstream next time 5) Dale Hollow and Center Hill very high too 6) any rain that falls later in the week will slow the fall of these lakes 7) Euro SE storm in day 11 ? see day 10..(then I assume dry after that)

it is indeed eroding the shore line and hat tree is indeed tiipped. over....in fact in this video there is construction equipment ,looks like they are trying to use grout .... transmission tower concerns? see at the 21 second mark'

oh boy.....Is all the outflow eroding away part of the embankment beneath the power plant? is that why the lowered it?...see this video taken today (or yesterday) maybe at the 48 second mark in the trees...and also see what appears to be a wet spot dark green above that. also I winder why they reduced flows from the spillway but turned the power plant back on?? edit: in the 2018 drone video there appears to be erosion there too...or at least more rocky then dirt edit again: did a tree tip over there from outflow erosion?

I noticed that too.....not up to the 60K predicted ..it could because 5K is going out of Dale Hollow now?? center Hill very high too going to be a long spring... Corps turns attention to drawing down storage reservoirs https://www.dvidshub.net/news/311799/corps-turns-attention-drawing-down-storage-reservoirs

Lake Cumberland lake at 754.48... stilling rising .. up .13 last hour outflow 55,000 ..inflow still 140K....peaked in the low 200K's!! inflow should match outflow sometime tomorrow...If it follows the slope graph of the other cycles this week.. here is a pic of the dam today and I noticed something interesting....notice what appears to be brown discolored water to the left of the power plant along the wall...after. that I will post a youtube drone video from 2018 (see 12 second mark) that also has the spillway gates opened...both after the repairs ....there is no discolored water in the 2018 video..... this discolored water could be seepage ..

media reporting it may be closed for a week

models trending wetter for the two systems later in the week..looks like 1 to 1.25 average wide but then huge highs after that?? cumberland now at 754.27 out flow now 53,000...still rising fast (about .15 foot/hr average) On the upper/mid cumberland other lakes such as Dale Hollow and center point getting closer to capacity..so very little flood storage for spring rains wolf creek Dam.. 6 feet from spillover when this was taken a couple hours ago. "spillover" is the gap between the road and the top of the gates,,hard to see here should fall short

taking the calculations to the past few hours... if you divide the difference between the inflow and outflow ..for every 7400 net difference the lake rises .01 feet per hour so the lake is at about 754 or will be soon...taking the opposite ..if there is 60,000 outflow and ZERO inflow that's a drop of .081 an hour or 1.95 feet per day... in a week that's a drop of 13.65 feet so if the lake magically stops rising at 754 (it won't , maybe crest at 755) and all the inflow magically stops (it won't of course) the lake level will be only be down to 740.35 feet in a week....any pattern change to wet after that would be trouble... the old record was set in May. after most of the wetter spring was over ...this is only Feb going to be a long battle and looking at the past 24 hours precip most of the basin did indeed get the gap in between the heavy Stuff in eastern TN .and the stuff further up into KY

Lake cumberland Lake up 3.88 feet 24 hours ending at 4am or .16 per hour average,,record outflow is occurring today increase today to 60,000 about noon less then 7 feet from spilling over..the increased outflow should slow the rise later..and inflows could be peaking about right now since it stopped raining.. 2/24/2019 3 AM 752.72 45,120 + .18 2/24/2019 4 AM 752.96 45,320 +.24 2/24/2019 5 AM 753.12 45,320 +.16

190,000 cfs inflow !!. where did you get this info.?...been looking for it online the outflow of 60,000 is exepcted later today...they are lucky they didn't get trained like Knoxville yesterday morning... like I said the other day they should have increased outflows earlier (25 to 35K-40) two days ago...If they would have done that ..60K wouldn't be needed perhaps thanks

NWS sites and TVA site is down or very very slow as of 500pm 4.54 at TYS according to climate report

The TN river At Savannah TN crest expected at 399.97 ..2nd highest crest on record the amazing thing is the crest of record was just 1.5 feet higher in 1897.....before the flood control the Cumberland basin may have gotten a minimum ..with more north and the heavy Eastern TN stuff SE

I posted about lake yesterday or the day before wondering if it was overflowing,,, of course that goes into Cumberland

Cumberland: out flow increased to 40,000 at 3pm. Level 750.52 an increase of .18 last hour 1.3 feet from record and 9.48 from overspill a kink in the convective system may Cause training up the river below the dam and then into the watershed got to be some heated discussions going on

WKYM 101.7 18 mins · According to a release today from the US Army Corps of Engineers, water is being released now at a faster rate than at any time during the 60 plus year history of Wolf Creek Dam. The largest amount of water ever released from the dam is 40,000 cubic feet per second in January 1974. Releases at Wolf Creek Dam have been increased to 45,000 cubic feet per second this afternoon, and releases are expected to increase to 60,000 cfs by noon Sunday, Feb. 24. Inflows into Lake Cumberland overnight were larger than forecast and the lake’s flood storage is quickly reaching its capacity, prompting water managers to move up the timetable for the increased releases. Impacts are expected in areas near the river downstream, especially in the Cumberland River reach in Kentucky from Rowena to Burkesville.

****BREAKING*** according to local media...They are afraid of Lake Cumberland overflow and now are dumping 45,000 cfs this hour and plan to increase it to 60,000 by noon tommorrow

Lake cumberland rising faster now...NWS guage data shows/predicts even more inflow then the other day..the River at Cumberland falls at this time is even higher then it was when those photos were taken...looks like 1 to 1.5 inches of rain feel over the past 36 hours....the steady moderate type at least they didn't get trained yet...could be they get lucky if the 2nd wave goes north? and they missed the knoxville stuff south 2/23/2019 9 AM 749.61 34,740 2/23/2019 10 AM 749.74 34,760 +.13 2/23/2019 11 AM 749.90 34,860 +.16

got to watch for any development of clusters (more heavy rain) ahead of the main line this afternoon with heavy rain...HRRR hinting at it NWS data is slow to update but 3.30 inches at Knoxville airport as of couple of hours ago edit: 3.59 now

reissued BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 124 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2019 ..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KNOXVILLE AND KNOX COUNTY TENNESSEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 430 PM EST. * AT 122 PM EST, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED CONTINUED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STRONGLY SUGGESTS MOTORIST LIMIT TRAVEL AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. MANY ROADWAYS ARE IMPASSABLE AT THIS TIME, AND WILL REQUIRE SEVERAL HOURS FOR WATERS TO RECEDE AFTER THE RAINFALL ENDS. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KNOX COUNTY. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

alot of times these things start to weaken about this time of day of the LLJ weakens and the focus become surface based activity...but in this case the over all system is strengthening so it may cancel that out If some places in Knox county already have 5 inches...I think a shot at 10 inches isn't out of the question by days end if that train sets up over them

meanwhile ( at least no training there) AMESTOWN, Ky. (WKYT) – A press release from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says that, with Lake Cumberland levels rising, the Wolf Creek Dam will step up releases to historic levels, with the potential for flooding in low-lying areas downstream. According to the release, Wolf Creek Dam is currently discharging water at 36,200 cubic feet per second (cfs.) Now, engineers plan to increase discharge to 40,000 cfs as early as Sunday, and up to 45,000 cfs 48 hours after that. The largest amount of water ever released from the dam is 40,000 cfs, back in January of 1974.

airport up to 3.30..( .35 last hr)...they may be just to far south to avoid the incoming train?

was there an emergency toned out alert on on the EBS?? or not that is why the other poster said he has never seen and Areal Flood Warning go straight to a PDS flash flood warning..there should have been a "normal" flash flood warning issued in between ...you know when cars were getting strandard and fire trucks sinking anyway stay safe

no there was only an flood warning...not a flash flood warning..a don't thunk an Areal Flood Warning is "toned" out usually there is a flash flood warning issued ...then when things get extreme a "Flash flood emergency"

a flash flood warning should have been issued long ago