janetjanet998

what total disaster ..... was there some kind of force field over N IL or something..... well its 3am...woke up And checked radar...thinking a MCS would be near by,,,but it's clear SPC enhanced risk didn't pan out ....that feature in Northern MO went poof hardy a drop of rain fell in LOT area....with a flash flood watch all day and night which was just cancelled..this of course caused the hydrograph forecast on the IL river to be to high..(see Morris) I have family members that get isolated when the river hits 25.5 here which was the crest forecast yesterday and they just recently moved back...so I am keeping them updated trying to stay ahead of the forecast it is a messed up system....WPC issues the 24 and 48hr precipitation forecast around 2am and 2pm each day....the new river forecast is not issued until around 10am and 10pm going off of precipitation ending at 12z/0z AND the WPC forecast issued 7 hours earlier of course by that time meso features can change or it is obvious that precipitation forecast won't pan out yesterday at 12z 1.5 to 2 inches was expected to fall in the basin upstream when the crest was 25.5..last evening at 10pm they lowered it to 24.7 based on only 1-1.25 inches in the forecast issued ....well that didn't pan out either so there was almost zero precipitation that fell in the drainage basin upstream the new QPF forecast just out has 1/2 to 1 inch from I-80 south but only 1/4 to 1/2 inch over the NE part of the basin (around LOT area) and western burbs...so the new forecast issued at 10am will have almost ZERO precip that fell the past 12 hours and the above forecast precipitation...so it likely won't be even to 24.7 now when it issued in 6 hours (23.8 now) but for example lets say that activity blows up ( not saying it will just an example) over Northern MO and moves across Northern IL at 9am...and it becomes obvious more then 1/2 inch will fall up there. lets say 1- 2 inches.....the river forecast issued at 10am would still be based off the busted low WPC forecast issued at 2am

This is what I was afraid of earlier ......models missed that and it messed up what they were showing for later THUS FAR, CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO SUSTAIN ITSELF IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON'S COMPLEX. new development over MLI area

its turning more east ...not sure how far north it will make it into N IL...at least the bow part...... of course WAA wing cells may form too though

so I went just down the road with a good view...as soon as it started going up...nice anvil moving in from the SW...I turned all phones and internet off to go "blind" thinking it would blowup. it got closer and closer..but there was a problem...no lightning or even thunder.....no mammatus clouds in the anvil... I got a few sprinkles on the wind shield form the dying anvil...juts got home and checked the radar...looked decent in Fulton county but POOF confirmed with that cell..but storms to my NW ..

something trying to go up NE of UIN..should head my way if it develops NOTE: In Northeast Peoria county at Three Sisters Park, which is between Chillicothe and Rome, Summer fest is ongoing ....1000's of people mostly in tents some of those in wooded areas...alot drunk some on other stuff too ...not enough shelter for all of them ..any big winds could be bad news

Its odd cells aren't developing yet over IL., NE MO ..like they are out in the plains ... these would moving into N IL if they did develop HRRR wants to develop a couple of super cells near IKK but so far not much ..even CU wise edit 4:55pm: small CU field may be going up now over western IL around UIN here SPC talks about the Northern MO area MOZ000-KSZ000-242230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 242056Z - 242230Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE RESULTING THREAT FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN MO CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS AMIDST AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEWLY DEVELOPED CUMULUS FIELD EAST OF KANSAS CITY, WITH A FEW ATTEMPTS AT DEEPER CONVECTION NOTED. AS THE AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES, EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED. ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY (I.E. MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG) AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR (I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT) FOR SUPERCELLS, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO IN SITU CONVECTIVE INITIATION, UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

yep.... LOT was expecting it to continue also THIS HAS BEEN EVIDENT WITH A PERSISTENT SEVERE STORM MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL. THIS STORM HAS BEEN RIDING EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT, WHERE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RESIDE. DON'T SEE ANY REASON WHY THIS WON'T CONTINUE TO PERSIST, ESPECIALLY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS There are cells going up in IA but they are moving NE.. there might be an outflow boundary from the old storm back to Northern MO into the cluster by MCI...that may light up soon but so far not much CU development over Northern IL note: I am focusing on Northern central IL area

HRRR still struggling ....storm is still a hair too far north and weakens it fast ..models and most forecasters clueless you could tell from the visible Sat. what was going to happen the past couple of hours...there is a mini "warm front" of CU popping up east of the storm and a mini "cold front" of CU SW of the storm think of the storm as a low and these fields are the fronts..with bubbling CU in the "warm sector" the storm is also slowing down...if this area because a complex then it will throw sinking air back NW of it and kill off any later afternoon storms

I think it went just south of town or is occluding

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 115 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 ILC057-125-241845- /O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190524T1845Z/ FULTON-MASON- 115 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL FULTON AND NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES... AT 114 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF LEWISTOWN, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TWO INCH HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1258 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 ILC057-125-241845- /O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190524T1845Z/ FULTON-MASON- 1258 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL FULTON AND NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES... AT 1257 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR IPAVA, OR 11 MILES WEST OF LEWISTOWN, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

102 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1233 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW INDUSTRY 40.35N 90.64W 05/24/2019 MCDONOUGH IL EMERGENCY MNGR A HOME DAMAGED WITH DEBRIS BLOWN ACROSS THE FIELD ONTO HIGHWAY 67. POWER POLES WERE LEANING OVER. BETWEEN ROAD 700 AND 500. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME WAS ESTIMATED USING RADAR.

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL 600 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING AND LARGE HAIL AS IT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL.

decent couplet..storm is turning more right and will ride the boundaey 75/66 here now ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 1219 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MCDONOUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1245 PM CDT. * AT 1219 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER FANDON, OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MACOMB, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL MO...CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 241715Z - 241845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ONGOING STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST AND HAIL. A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THAT COULD RESULT IN THE NEED FOR A WATCH, DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL (FROM JUST NORTH OF UIN TO NEAR DNV). TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WARM BUT THE WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER STILL RESULTS IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG BY 18Z. THIS AREA IS ALSO ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR DECREASING FROM 50 KT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL IL TO 40 KT OVER EAST-CENTRAL IL/WEST-CENTRAL IN. RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM OVER HANCOCK COUNTY IL HAS BEEN NOTED. THIS INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE NORTHEASTERLY STORM MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE STORM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND INTO AN AREA LESS FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS. EVEN SO, ADEQUATE SHEAR EXISTS FOR STORM ROTATION AND SOME STORM ORGANIZATION COULD PERSIST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH AN ATTENDANT HAIL THREAT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MOST LIKELY SEVERE HAZARD IS DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. VEERED SURFACE WINDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE ENHANCED SURFACE VORTICITY COULD AUGMENT THE TORNADO THREAT. STORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN, LEADING TO LOWER WATCH PROBABILITY. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR INCREASING COVERAGE THAT COULD NECESSITATE A WATCH.

TOR warning for that cluster in western IL...becomng surface based with a small area of clearing ahead of it BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 1145 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN MCDONOUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1215 PM CDT. * AT 1144 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST POINT, OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF CARTHAGE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

so far the lower MO river hasn't gone insane yet (still very high) partly because the inflow to the Kansas River isn't like it was in 1993....The upper Mississippi River, lower MO, and IL river are feeding the STL levels on the MS saw this interesting tidbit on the WPC excessive rainfall outlook...of course this is upstream of STL watershed THE APRIL 23-MAY 22 PERIOD WAS THE WETTEST ON RECORD AT KANSAS CITY, MCI, IN 131 YEARS OF RECORDS

N IL looks interesting along warm front later....as course the position depends on poorly modeled MCS there is convection in NE MO not handled well at this time..with partial clearing ahead of it..if anything this will retard the movement of the front back north also flood threat

just for fun: the entire run of the 00z GFS

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 830 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHWESTERN HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT. * AT 830 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF FOLLETT TEXAS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. ------- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 832 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN LIPSCOMB COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN HEMPHILL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN OCHILTREE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS... * UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * AT 831 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF GLAZIER, OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIPSCOMB, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

all 3 have TOR possible tags in the T-storm warning

Here is a weather channel article from a couple of weeks ago...it has actually been MORE wet the past 6 months then 1992/93,,except in Kansas at press time......they are assuming we won't get onto the crazy record MCS pattern Another Great Midwest Flood of 1993 This Summer? Probably Not, But There Are Some Concerning Signs https://weather.com/safety/floods/news/2019-05-07-great-midwest-flood-1993-compare-contrast-2018-19

I talked to a couple of farmers recently (both no crops in) they said old timers have said in the past that the latest they ever planted the corn crop was early-mid June(maybe pre 1979 data referenced) one told me one year he replanted beans once on July 4th MS river at crest at STL. now 42 feet.....tied for 4th highest ever it hit 41.33 feet back on May 6th,,,7th highest....but I assume if this round goes higher that will be wiped from the books because it is the same event here is the graph from 1993...as you can see the insane summer MCS season did them in...the river is much higher now then this point in 1993 after falling off the spring snow melt season peak

has a TOR possible tag in latest warning..hook would move over SE metro

yep very populated...CC maybe weakened for a scan but then dropped off again in the city itself