janetjanet998

HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT. * AT 204 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BURLINGTON, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

NE IA still HOWARD IA- 124 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTY... AT 124 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF ELMA, OR 16 MILES WEST OF CRESCO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 263 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 125 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON, IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

need to watch the cell over NE IL too..looking better and almost surface based I think edit: now T-storm warned

NE IA again ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 107 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA... EASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHWESTERN CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT. * AT 107 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ELMA, OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHARLES CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 108 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... EASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 200 PM CDT. * AT 108 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BENTONSPORT/VERNON, OR NEAR KEOSAUQUA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 271750Z - 271915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES (SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG), LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY. DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT IS RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN AS OF 17Z. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON AND MLCAPE VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MIGRATING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS IA/MO WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE FORCING, WHILE A COUPLE OF MCVS FROM MORNING CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN MORE SUBTLE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THESE MCVS AS WELL AS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN IN. THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHER EAST ACROSS IN IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY 21-22Z. 18Z RAOB FROM DVN SHOWED CAPPING JUST BELOW 850MB. WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE, TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO COOL AND WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION, THIS CAP IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE BY MID AFTERNOON. IN FACT, 18Z RAOB FROM ILX IS UNCAPPED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED IN ADDITION TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MEAN MIXING RATIO APPROACHING 14 G/KG. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH IDEAL LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS (NOTED IN DVN RAOB) SHOULD LEAD TO TORNADO POTENTIAL SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19Z ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING FURTHER EAST INTO IN MAY RESULT IN LATER TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE, BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z.

Mini hooking cells developing over and SW of Quad city metro

VERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1242 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019 IAC067-089-131-271815- /O.CON.KARX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190527T1815Z/ MITCHELL IA-HOWARD IA-FLOYD IA- 1242 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL...SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD AND NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES... AT 1241 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST OF COLWELL, OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OSAGE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. DAMAGE TO HOUSES HAS BEEN REPORTED NORTH OF CHARLES CITY.

ok..looks like there are building now around MLI..if I were chasing a would be in between galesburg and MLI right now as staging

the SE IA disturbance is likely the trigger for the storms soon ahead of it or within it...in these set ups, very high 0-3 km CAPE , sometimes mini sups may develop within it...watch for higher reflectivity cores from DVN radar as a sign

Anyone have an update on this? if this is confirmed true then low topped mini spinners look likely.... perhaps evolving out of that blob of precipitation over SE IA edit: back after going dark for 12+ hours LOL

24 hours form now: That MCS not handled well by the modes really killed off that potential,,, blah blah blah,,, etc etc etc ....I'm not going to look at any more data or radar until tomorrow afternoon and only under one condition: If or when I see Towering CU in an atmosphere that hasn't been disrupted by something....clouds...sinking air....or whatever It's 1989 and I only got my eyes and NOAA weather radio ...... it's more suspenseful that way

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 911 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK TEXAS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... BAILEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... SOUTHERN PARMER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN LAMB COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * AT 910 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF NEEDMORE, OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MULESHOE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

MOD rock still for overnight wind AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2019 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL TORNADOES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT COULD STILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. ..01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING, BUT THIS APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN BY SEVERE WIND, SOME OF WHICH PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES APPEAR TO BE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EVOLVING SQUALL WHILE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY INFLOW OF AIR CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES, IS BEGINNING TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DESTABILIZATION. THE SQUALL LINE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 40-50 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER AMBIENT MEAN FLOW, WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WITHIN THIS REGIME, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 03-05Z, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MESOVORTICES EVOLVING WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE MAY POSE A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES, INCLUDING ALONG THE TRACK OF AN EVOLVING BROADER-SCALE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT, IT MAY PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING SEVERE WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT (NOW SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER), AND AHEAD OF IT (SPREADING EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS), MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LINGERING INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER AMBIENT MEAN FLOW.

OK lets have a do over tomorrow from Friday similar set up over similar area ...active WF (maybe who knows after what has happened so far)

went west of Clayton but I assume that there will be campers this weekend at the state park BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 534 PM MDT SUN MAY 26 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... * UNTIL 615 PM MDT. * AT 534 PM MDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF CLAYTON LAKE STATE PARK, OR 8 MILES WEST OF CLAYTON, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

not much out there but its heading towards Clayton area BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 507 PM MDT SUN MAY 26 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... * UNTIL 545 PM MDT. * AT 507 PM MDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT DORA, OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLAYTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

I was really concerned for our area going into the weekend and early next week with multiple heavy rain waves for days.... but not so bad so far....with 2 LOT flash flood watch "busts" but still maybe 3 rounds to go, before pattern change Weds....(but turns wet again after a couple dry days) more of a wet summer pattern later...but large slower moving complexes will dump more rain over any area they park over ..and the ground is soaked

another busted MCS fail and LOT flood watch HRRR as late as 10z had very heavy rains and intense storms in the current cluster over me.....which is nothing but light to moderate rain right now I don't understand why models had this holding ins own all night then go poof again over N IL...im talking about the bigger one over MCI last evening not the smaller lead one usually these don't start to weaken until 6-7am or so....not 1-2am

The storms near the MO/IA border are classic let’s turn and/or develop ESE and miss Peoria to the SW .. I will get some thunder and moderate rain .. even if models say it will move ENE and move over me or north it will turn more right 80 percent of the time I always get a chuckle out of the local tv Mets showing future radar and having them hitting Peoria head on expect a couple t-storm warnings and many flash warnings to my SW

with the next 24 hr big batch of precipitation now in the forecast RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST. LOUIS THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 42.8 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. 1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993 (2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973 (3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016

looking at the entire run of the 12z GFS Yes the pattern does change midweek... no big dip in the west....but the hint of a small dip and a semi-SW flow never really goes away and the pattern isn't exactly dry, especially over the western portion of the Sub forum Yes sometimes the high nudges in from the north and northeast but within day or two the return flow sets up and high PW values are back

ouch ILX LOOKING AT CAMS, THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN WRONG IN ABOUT EVERY DIRECTION THEY GO. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS TIMES WHEN THERE IS NOTHING ON CAMS, BUT YET THERE IS EITHER DEVELOPMENT OR ONGOING PRECIPITATION. SO AS FOR HOW MUCH I TRUST THESE MODEL INDICATIONS, I CANNOT SAY I RELY ON THEM AT THE CURRENT MOMENT.