janetjanet998

local downpours keeping the river steady..00z would kill this area 3-4 inches from here to Chicago new crest forecast adds this * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.0 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.

WPC going with anther 1.75- 2 inches this week..a crest of 28 ft still expected here tomorrow but that is without the rain factored in which may cause a secondary crest..some of that should get into this evenings frecast also the river is running a hair above forecast points so 28.1 or 28.2 look more likely for the "old" forecast Historic Crests (1) 29.35 ft on 04/23/2013 (2) 28.80 ft on 05/23/1943 (3) 28.70 ft on 03/23/1979 (4) 28.40 ft on 03/07/1985 (5) 27.94 ft on 03/14/2009 18z NAM total disaster for this area....with widespread 2-3 inches here and upstream

Was in EP today so I took a drive around the levee district .....I forgot when the river get this high it backups under the levee in front of that IT Building thru the storm drains and indeed water is starting to flood the road there in front of that building ..that is why he will have to work from home it hit hits 29...he won't be able to get into the parking lot..... also farm creek in indeed very high against the north side of the district behind Target and Aldi ...like I said I have seen it go from almost bone dry to a raging deep torrent .....don't think it has ever started at this height then add that same raging deep current crossing my fingers that here and just upstream do indeed get the split,,say only 1 inch versus 3+....ILX even mentions this is the discussion I don't think people around here understand the gravity of the potential situation yet ==================================== Richland farms are the homes in the Levee District aka "Bottoms" No Flood Evacuations In East Peoria…Yet The river in East Peoria was at 25.83 feet, as of 6:45 a.m. Saturday, with a current crest of 28 feet forecast Monday with more rain forecast in the coming week. East Peoria officials Saturday afternoon said evacuations are not recommended at this time. However, if severe flooding continues, residents in the Richland Farms area and those along the river along Main Street and westward will need to have a plan in place for themselves and their pets and have basic supplies ready and provisions for their animals, including food and water. Residents are encouraged to develop a voluntary evacuation plan that can be exercised if an order to evacuate is issued. https://www.1470wmbd.com/no-flood-evacuations-in-east-peoria-yet/ East Peoria city officials and the Fon du Lac Park District are continually monitoring the flooding situation on the Illinois River and the condition of the levee, and recommend residents be proactive by planning ahead in the event of an emergency. https://www.facebook.com/EPCityGovernment/

Pattern recognition suggest a classic southern IA Northern MO MCS turning more ESE and missing PIA to the south and only hitting this area with moderate comma head rains and even less upstream ...as high pressure noses in from the NE...good news after a minor hit here Monday...00Z NAM has huge amounts in MO in an ESE moving MCS the GFS is Meh for heavy rain here with huge amounts well south in the lower MS river valley and another weaker max NW ICON also a shift south CMC splits the goal posts like the GFS GEFS Mean also trending down with only 1.35 or so upstream of me next week with also a hint of a split

I don't remember at what gauge height it over tops back in 2013 the river was originally supposed to crest a little higher then the 29.35. around 30 I think ...CAT moved out all of the inventory dozers and raised important equipment off the floor That is also why people started to flee the homes in the bottoms ,,,, another wildcard: I remember every flood since 1979 and at the height of the crests there wasn't the potential for heavy rains.....I might go over there Sunday to check this out....but after typical downpours, Farm creek can rise from nothing to many feet deep In that location.....Farm creek is what runs along the north side of the Levee district ..well with the river super high Farm creek will likely be backed up and be very high .....so if upstream gets a deluge...will the runoff come close to overtopping the north side of the levee along the creek before the runoff hits the river and spreads out? The IT building you referred too (building AD) is in the NW corner of the levee district about 800 feet from the river and right next to the smaller branch of Farm creek (it splits on two near target) of course we are getting way way way ahead of ourselves ......all depends how much more rain and where

I will bore you all with my concern for this area.. The area Below is called the Levee district of East Peoria....At one time it consisted of nothing but Caterpillar Manufacturing Buildings... if you look at Google maps you can see these buildings and several small blocks of homes (built for the CAT workers orginally)..there may be 150 homes in the area...the area west of Main street and south of Camp is this levee district.. this is also known as the "bottoms" There are still several large active CAT buildings but the ones on the NE side have been torn down and replaced with Costco, Target, Gordmans and many other commercial buildings ...in the past 10-20 years They still assemble all the Large CAT dozers here worldwide (building SS) ..which can seen stored on Google earth anyway that levee isn't the best.. and the flood 5 years ago they shut down all the CAT buildings and people started to flee the homes I don't recall where i saw it but someone was quoted as saying the river would flood all the way to main street before the levee was there...there was rumours of it leaking in 2013 old news articles from 2013 Caterpillar shuts down East Peoria plant amid flooding Caterpillar Inc. shut down its East Peoria campus on Sunday as the water level of the Illinois River continues to raise. "The company has been and will remain in contact with local authorities to continue monitoring the situation and will communicate with employees and other stakeholders about when the East Peoria campus will re-open and when employees would be expected to return to their normal work place," https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-xpm-2013-04-22-chi-caterpillar-shuts-down-east-peoria-plant-amid-flooding-20130422-story.html Residents in East Peoria Bottoms Packing Up https://www.centralillinoisproud.com/news/top-local-news/residents-in-east-peoria-bottoms-packing-up/94570766

New crest at PIA 28 feet Monday and still be above 27 into Thursday again that is without any more rain factored in Historic Crests (1) 29.35 ft on 04/23/2013 (2) 28.80 ft on 05/23/1943 (3) 28.70 ft on 03/23/1979 (4) 28.40 ft on 03/07/1985 (5) 27.94 ft on 03/14/2009 (6) 27.40 ft on 12/09/1982 (7) 27.10 ft on 03/23/1982 (8) 27.09 ft on 06/30/2015 (9) 27.06 ft on 09/20/2008 (10) 26.86 ft on 03/03/1997

IL river: Looks like Morris crested at 23.04ft a few hours earlier and just under 1/2 foot of the forecast from the morning 8th all time DVN long range ONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2019 BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS CONTINUING THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEK, SO INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS. VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS APPEARS TO BE A CLASSIC MADDOX SYNOPTIC FRONTAL-TYPE HEAVY RAINFALL SITUATION. THERE WILL BE A DEEP TROUGH ANCHORED IN THE ROCKIES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS TREMENDOUS MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG BAROCLINIC EAST-WEST ZONE WILL BE RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM AIR ADVECTION/STRONG FORCING. THE TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING FORCING AND MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE EVENT, WHICH WILL DETERMINE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN. IT IS ALSO TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.

No they were calling for 23.5 two days ago......bumped it up to 27.5 yesterday... based on higher then expected rainfall and forecast rainfall the next 24 hours or so...(ie todays) also need to keep an eye on the hyrographs upstream to see of they meet the expected crest (Morris today and Lasalle later)..both of those locations had the crest lowered 1/2 foot today usually here the crest is 4 or so after the heaviest rain stops upstream... they have delayed the crest here until Sunday night now which makes more sense also the IL river from Henry downstream is very slow reacting ...especially form PIA downstream ..it won't fall off the crest for a couple of days... and when there is no rain after a crest the steepest slope is only a fall of around .4 to .5 feet per day starting 4 days or so after the peak I suspect the river will crest 27.2 ish monday. I am basing this slightly lower crest because todays "secondary" rains will fall mostly south of the basin... so the total rains of last night and today will be slightly less then expected I suspect the river will be above 26 all next week ........without any more rain..so that will be the starting point for the rains it was 15.4 ft at the start of this deluge The Hydro forecasts are tricky and always change and seem to be behind "real time" ..and the IL river basin is rather narrow so any outflows pushing the expected precip in or out of the basin is unpredictable The media will also base their info off the hydro forecast Don't surprised if you see crazy numbers starting Sunday evening as the forecast precip for Monday and Tuesday start to come into play Trust me if we get widespread 2-3+ inches of rain just upstream next week it will break the record..that is exactly what happened in the Quad cities If the max falls further upsrteam closer to Jolietr area it will flatten the crest for a longer period but we prob won't break the record..but that will just keep the danger going for the longer term better hope it stays south..and the high over the northenr plains will push the storm tracks south after mid week the 12z CMC is really troubling over the next 10 days with 4-7 inches ..12z GEFS mean 2-2.25 inches inthe basin...with the heaviest south towards OH river would someone post the EURO totals thanks

not counting today 1/2 -2/3 inch or so 4 day rainfall PERFECT for the maximum affect for the IL at PIA.. (Marshall. Putnam , nothern Livingston then the I-80 counties from Princeton to Joliet...with other less important areas of the Basin for PIA impact upstream from these area also getting hit..(FOX, Des Plaines, Kankakee etc)

I think we will have RECORD flooding here in Peoria on the IL river .... Crest already expected to be very high early next week 27-27.5 feet .. models show active pattern again next week and if the heavy rains fall upstream ,,then we are in trouble here record is 29.4 set just 5 years ago

surprised this thread is dead Record flooding now expected on the MS river at Quad cities breaking the 1993 record FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ROCK ISLAND LD15. * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. * AT 8:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.6 FEET AND STEADY. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST. * RECENT ACTIVITY, HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL NOW PUSH THE RIVER TO A HISTORIC CREST IN THE QUAD CITIES. * FORECAST, RISE TO 22.7 FEET THIS EVENING, THEN BEGIN FALLING. * IMPACT, AT 22.7 FEET, WATER IS AT THE BASE OF THE SOUTH EMPLOYEE ENTRANCE OF THE QUAD CITY TIMES BUILDING.

00z RUC and HRRR models actually increase instabily the next few hours...perhaps from cooling aloft .... HRRR also breaks out cells ahead of the line.....as mentioned by SPC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND FAR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 67... VALID 142342Z - 150045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 67 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 67. DISCUSSION...A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN CENTRAL MARYLAND. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN TORNADO WATCH 67 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN THE LOW-TOPPED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING, THE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE, AS MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THE THREAT FROM THESE INITIAL STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND 01Z.

so there was a train of three...the first one was the original TOR warned storm...its gone....the current TOR warned storms is the "second" one....and the hooky one behind that #3 now is there #4 west of number #3 now,,another mini storm and perhaps even a 5th south of #4 now along the river ?

I don't get it should have been warned long ago edit: ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 731 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 815 PM EDT. * AT 731 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WESTMINSTER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

I'm surpassed it isn't TOR wanted...tight rotation....perhaps a small CC drop?

had a hook a few sans ago..also a third mini storm on its tail too

actually the set up doesn't look too shaby......lets see if the first round goes nuts

you can see evidence of this by the drop of river levels at Brownsville BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 458 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... A LEVEE FAILURE IN... NORTHEASTERN NEMAHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 500 AM CDT SUNDAY. * AT 455 PM CDT, LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TWO BREACHES IN THE LEVEE ON THE MISSOURI RIVER JUST NORTH OF PERU, WHICH WILL CAUSE RAPIDLY RISING WATER LEVELS IN THE IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AREAS. PLEASE MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The MO river at St Joseph has an odd drop in levels...( could be a levee breach or ice jam building up?? (Mo too big for that?) perhaps form the levee breaches upstream?

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 858 AM CDT SAT MAR 16 2019 ..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR FREMONT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... A LEVEE FAILURE IN... SOUTHEASTERN DODGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY. * AT 855 AM CDT, LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LEVEE BREACH ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF TOWN ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER HAS FAILED WHICH WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING SHORTLY OF THE IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW! THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR FREMONT. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU A

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1037 AM CDT SAT MAR 16 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... A LEVEE FAILURE IN... WESTERN FREMONT COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA... SOUTHWESTERN MILLS COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 1030 PM CDT SATURDAY. * AT 1029 AM CDT, CORPS OF ENGINEERS REPORTED AT LEAST TWO LEVEE FAILURES AND A LEVEE BREACH ALONG THE IOWA SIDE OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. GOING NORTH TO SOUTH, THE FIRST IS IN IOWA ACROSS FROM THE OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE (THIS IS A SUSPECTED BREACH), THE SECOND IS A FEW MILES SOUTH OF PLATTSMOUTH ON THE IOWA SIDE (SUSPECTED FAILURE), AND THE THIRD IS ACROSS FROM NEBRASKA CITY ON THE IOWA SIDE (SUSPECTED FAILURE). WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL UP LOW LANDS BEHIND THE LEVEES, AND WILL LEAD TO RAPIDLY RISING WATER LEVELS. PLEASE MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW!