janetjanet998

WTF Euro? and CMC

out of the sub forum, but our wet weather is affecting it, but concerning at red river landing and lots of rain incoming Morganza Floodway To Be Operated June 6 For only the third time, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will operate the Morganza Control Structure and Floodway beginning June 6. Operation of Morganza comes as a new crest on the already swollen Mississippi River makes its way toward Louisiana. --------- The National Weather Service forecasts the gage at Red River Landing will reach 62 feet around June 4 and stay there for two weeks or more, reflecting the anticipated opening of Morganza. In all, Red River Landing has been above flood stage since December 28, 2018—151 days and counting. In all, the “flood fight” on the Lower Mississippi River is nearing an all-time record. Already, rainfall over the past year east of the Rocky Mountains is the most since the National Weather Service began keeping records 124 years ago. “The current flood fight is historic and unprecedented,” the Corps said in the statement. As of May 30. the New Orleans District has been in a Phase I flood fight (with the river above 12 feet at the Carrollton Gage) for 217 days. The record length for a Phase 1 flood fight is 225 days, set during the 1973 high water season. https://www.waterwaysjournal.net/2019/05/31/update-morganza-floodway-to-be-operated-june-6/

please no north trends LOT FOR THE CLOSED UPPER LOW, AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, MODEL AND ENSEMBLE PROGS ARE CONCERNING FOR THE PLUME OF 200+% PWAT VALUES (2"+) ADVECTED NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN HOW NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT IT IS FOR MODELS TO ACCURATELY PREDICT TRAJECTORY OF THESE SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS, IT'S FAR TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN TRENDS. THAT SAID, 51-MEMBER EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (AND LAST 2 OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS) HAS INDICATED POSSIBILITY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS THAT ANOMALOUS RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAY SERVE AS A BLOCK TO NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ULL FRIDAY- SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURS, LIKELY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT TOTALS OF 2"+ WOULD FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA OR POINTS SOUTH, WITH MUCH LESS RAIN IF ANY NORTH. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

207 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019 ..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN BURLINGTON, IOWA THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SATURDAY. * AT 153 PM CDT, LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FAILURE OF THE TEMPORARY FLOOD PROTECTION AT 4TH AND WASHINGTON STREETS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN BURLINGTON THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

EURO brings in a big blocking high in from the north shoving the system back south..it basically stalls over AR days 6-10.. dumps large amounts over lower OH river into AR/OK more south then 00z run of course it will change

latest HRRR fires ZERO convection over downstate IL in the enhanced area

as others have pointed out..dewpoints lower then modeled The corn crop should be sprouting by now in a normal year and add moisture to the air from here on out... even though the ground is wet ...I wonder if models will be too high on dew points in the coming weeks since most of the corn isn't even planted yet also will that complex in MI throw back sinking air back west?

12z GFS still very wet later next week with that cut off low ejecting out and sucking up huge amounts of tropical moisture also poorly modeled heavy warm core rains often fall on the North and NW flanks..sort of like a TROWAL .and it is expected to almost stall

Normal level is 12-13 in spring 11-12 in summer....flood stage in 18 feet. moderate flood stage is 22 feet...record 29.4 ..we hit 28 feet in early May you can see how the river was in between 15-20 feet all late winter and spring ..then we got drenched in the right spots upstream at the end of April.. I cannot recall when the river was above 22 feet for 30 days straight before....1979 maybe when we had a big crest and several re-rises any slow moving complex or tropical systems upstream and we are in big trouble

looks like parts of Lake County IL got decent rains this morning,..over an inch in spots please put your rain shield up this month so we can get the IL river down here back to normal level 12-13 ft

ORD MAY: * WETTEST MAY ON RECORD SINCE 1871 WITH 8.25 INCHES SPRING RECORDS: * 2ND WETTEST SPRING ON RECORD WITH 16.36 INCHES

new IL river crest here 27 feet...which would be number 10 on the all time list if we didn't hit number 5 a month ago at 28..I know same "event" but the river only feel to 23.5 in between (18 FS, 22 MOD FS) GFS still wants to being the upper level low or tropical thingy up this way and throw moisture up and over a stalled a stalled front on its NW flank Christ

2+ inches of rain over much of the county....flash flood warning tight mid level center spinning a few miles to my north I wonder if there will be a SHARS type event tonight with it

I wonder if we can get some spinners around the mid level low in IL today similar to IA yesterday

not in the sub forum but many places on the AR river in AR should hit the highest level in 50 years since the flood control was built...many levees may be over topped also after a period of "drier" weather next week (more like average precip next week) GFS seems to want to take a tropcial wave move it into the Texas coast around the ridge by days 9-10 with PW's >2 inches getting sucked north

look at all the flash flood warnings from eastern KS to Peoria and the SW Chicago metro under urban flooding warnings ..so from near TOP to MDW flooding and check out the infrared...it looks like a weak tropical storm getting torn apart by SW shear ...with the center over Northern MO LOL

/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-190529T0130Z/ CLAY MO-RAY MO- 809 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN RAY COUNTIES... AT 808 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EXCELSIOR SPRINGS, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

At least the pattern is changing and we won't have a direct deep feed of moisture the problem is that there is so much water laying around and soil moistures so high that it has become its's own source.. DVN long term THE BROAD SCALE SEEMS LESS LIKELY FOR REPEAT HEAVY RAINS, BUT IS ALSO NOT A SEASONALLY DRY PATTERN AS WELL. AT LEAST IT'S NOT AN WEST TO EAST FRONT, WHICH IS OUR CURRENT PATTERN.

45.2 now 1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993 (2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973 (3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016

I think expect for maybe the first Dayton cell....they might be gusting out

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM EDT FOR FAYETTE AND SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTIES... AT 1156 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF JAMESTOWN, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIR

the lead cell hook is REALLY coming back

Columbus Metro and city * AT 1141 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS

a little NE of the frst ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN GREENE AND EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES... AT 1138 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER VANDALIA, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. RADAR SHOWS TORNADO DEBRIS IN THE AIR.