janetjanet998

WTF Euro? and CMC

out of the sub forum, but our wet weather is affecting it, but concerning at red river landing and lots of rain incoming Morganza Floodway To Be Operated June 6 For only the third time, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will operate the Morganza Control Structure and Floodway beginning June 6. Operation of Morganza comes as a new crest on the already swollen Mississippi River makes its way toward Louisiana. --------- The National Weather Service forecasts the gage at Red River Landing will reach 62 feet around June 4 and stay there for two weeks or more, reflecting the anticipated opening of Morganza. In all, Red River Landing has been above flood stage since December 28, 2018—151 days and counting. In all, the “flood fight” on the Lower Mississippi River is nearing an all-time record. Already, rainfall over the past year east of the Rocky Mountains is the most since the National Weather Service began keeping records 124 years ago. “The current flood fight is historic and unprecedented,” the Corps said in the statement. As of May 30. the New Orleans District has been in a Phase I flood fight (with the river above 12 feet at the Carrollton Gage) for 217 days. The record length for a Phase 1 flood fight is 225 days, set during the 1973 high water season. https://www.waterwaysjournal.net/2019/05/31/update-morganza-floodway-to-be-operated-june-6/

please no north trends LOT FOR THE CLOSED UPPER LOW, AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, MODEL AND ENSEMBLE PROGS ARE CONCERNING FOR THE PLUME OF 200+% PWAT VALUES (2"+) ADVECTED NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN HOW NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT IT IS FOR MODELS TO ACCURATELY PREDICT TRAJECTORY OF THESE SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS, IT'S FAR TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN TRENDS. THAT SAID, 51-MEMBER EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (AND LAST 2 OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS) HAS INDICATED POSSIBILITY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS THAT ANOMALOUS RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAY SERVE AS A BLOCK TO NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ULL FRIDAY- SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURS, LIKELY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT TOTALS OF 2"+ WOULD FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA OR POINTS SOUTH, WITH MUCH LESS RAIN IF ANY NORTH. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

207 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019 ..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN BURLINGTON, IOWA THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SATURDAY. * AT 153 PM CDT, LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FAILURE OF THE TEMPORARY FLOOD PROTECTION AT 4TH AND WASHINGTON STREETS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN BURLINGTON THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

EURO brings in a big blocking high in from the north shoving the system back south..it basically stalls over AR days 6-10.. dumps large amounts over lower OH river into AR/OK more south then 00z run of course it will change

latest HRRR fires ZERO convection over downstate IL in the enhanced area

as others have pointed out..dewpoints lower then modeled The corn crop should be sprouting by now in a normal year and add moisture to the air from here on out... even though the ground is wet ...I wonder if models will be too high on dew points in the coming weeks since most of the corn isn't even planted yet also will that complex in MI throw back sinking air back west?

12z GFS still very wet later next week with that cut off low ejecting out and sucking up huge amounts of tropical moisture also poorly modeled heavy warm core rains often fall on the North and NW flanks..sort of like a TROWAL .and it is expected to almost stall

Normal level is 12-13 in spring 11-12 in summer....flood stage in 18 feet. moderate flood stage is 22 feet...record 29.4 ..we hit 28 feet in early May you can see how the river was in between 15-20 feet all late winter and spring ..then we got drenched in the right spots upstream at the end of April.. I cannot recall when the river was above 22 feet for 30 days straight before....1979 maybe when we had a big crest and several re-rises any slow moving complex or tropical systems upstream and we are in big trouble

looks like parts of Lake County IL got decent rains this morning,..over an inch in spots please put your rain shield up this month so we can get the IL river down here back to normal level 12-13 ft

new IL river crest here 27 feet...which would be number 10 on the all time list if we didn't hit number 5 a month ago at 28..I know same "event" but the river only feel to 23.5 in between (18 FS, 22 MOD FS) GFS still wants to being the upper level low or tropical thingy up this way and throw moisture up and over a stalled a stalled front on its NW flank Christ

not in the sub forum but many places on the AR river in AR should hit the highest level in 50 years since the flood control was built...many levees may be over topped also after a period of "drier" weather next week (more like average precip next week) GFS seems to want to take a tropcial wave move it into the Texas coast around the ridge by days 9-10 with PW's >2 inches getting sucked north

look at all the flash flood warnings from eastern KS to Peoria and the SW Chicago metro under urban flooding warnings ..so from near TOP to MDW flooding and check out the infrared...it looks like a weak tropical storm getting torn apart by SW shear ...with the center over Northern MO LOL

At least the pattern is changing and we won't have a direct deep feed of moisture the problem is that there is so much water laying around and soil moistures so high that it has become its's own source.. DVN long term THE BROAD SCALE SEEMS LESS LIKELY FOR REPEAT HEAVY RAINS, BUT IS ALSO NOT A SEASONALLY DRY PATTERN AS WELL. AT LEAST IT'S NOT AN WEST TO EAST FRONT, WHICH IS OUR CURRENT PATTERN.

45.2 now 1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993 (2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973 (3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016

I was really concerned for our area going into the weekend and early next week with multiple heavy rain waves for days.... but not so bad so far....with 2 LOT flash flood watch "busts" but still maybe 3 rounds to go, before pattern change Weds....(but turns wet again after a couple dry days) more of a wet summer pattern later...but large slower moving complexes will dump more rain over any area they park over ..and the ground is soaked

another busted MCS fail and LOT flood watch HRRR as late as 10z had very heavy rains and intense storms in the current cluster over me.....which is nothing but light to moderate rain right now I don't understand why models had this holding ins own all night then go poof again over N IL...im talking about the bigger one over MCI last evening not the smaller lead one usually these don't start to weaken until 6-7am or so....not 1-2am

The storms near the MO/IA border are classic let’s turn and/or develop ESE and miss Peoria to the SW .. I will get some thunder and moderate rain .. even if models say it will move ENE and move over me or north it will turn more right 80 percent of the time I always get a chuckle out of the local tv Mets showing future radar and having them hitting Peoria head on expect a couple t-storm warnings and many flash warnings to my SW

with the next 24 hr big batch of precipitation now in the forecast RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST. LOUIS THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 42.8 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. 1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993 (2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973 (3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016

looking at the entire run of the 12z GFS Yes the pattern does change midweek... no big dip in the west....but the hint of a small dip and a semi-SW flow never really goes away and the pattern isn't exactly dry, especially over the western portion of the Sub forum Yes sometimes the high nudges in from the north and northeast but within day or two the return flow sets up and high PW values are back

ouch ILX LOOKING AT CAMS, THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN WRONG IN ABOUT EVERY DIRECTION THEY GO. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS TIMES WHEN THERE IS NOTHING ON CAMS, BUT YET THERE IS EITHER DEVELOPMENT OR ONGOING PRECIPITATION. SO AS FOR HOW MUCH I TRUST THESE MODEL INDICATIONS, I CANNOT SAY I RELY ON THEM AT THE CURRENT MOMENT.

what total disaster ..... was there some kind of force field over N IL or something..... well its 3am...woke up And checked radar...thinking a MCS would be near by,,,but it's clear SPC enhanced risk didn't pan out ....that feature in Northern MO went poof hardy a drop of rain fell in LOT area....with a flash flood watch all day and night which was just cancelled..this of course caused the hydrograph forecast on the IL river to be to high..(see Morris) I have family members that get isolated when the river hits 25.5 here which was the crest forecast yesterday and they just recently moved back...so I am keeping them updated trying to stay ahead of the forecast it is a messed up system....WPC issues the 24 and 48hr precipitation forecast around 2am and 2pm each day....the new river forecast is not issued until around 10am and 10pm going off of precipitation ending at 12z/0z AND the WPC forecast issued 7 hours earlier of course by that time meso features can change or it is obvious that precipitation forecast won't pan out yesterday at 12z 1.5 to 2 inches was expected to fall in the basin upstream when the crest was 25.5..last evening at 10pm they lowered it to 24.7 based on only 1-1.25 inches in the forecast issued ....well that didn't pan out either so there was almost zero precipitation that fell in the drainage basin upstream the new QPF forecast just out has 1/2 to 1 inch from I-80 south but only 1/4 to 1/2 inch over the NE part of the basin (around LOT area) and western burbs...so the new forecast issued at 10am will have almost ZERO precip that fell the past 12 hours and the above forecast precipitation...so it likely won't be even to 24.7 now when it issued in 6 hours (23.8 now) but for example lets say that activity blows up ( not saying it will just an example) over Northern MO and moves across Northern IL at 9am...and it becomes obvious more then 1/2 inch will fall up there. lets say 1- 2 inches.....the river forecast issued at 10am would still be based off the busted low WPC forecast issued at 2am

This is what I was afraid of earlier ......models missed that and it messed up what they were showing for later THUS FAR, CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO SUSTAIN ITSELF IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON'S COMPLEX. new development over MLI area

its turning more east ...not sure how far north it will make it into N IL...at least the bow part...... of course WAA wing cells may form too though

so I went just down the road with a good view...as soon as it started going up...nice anvil moving in from the SW...I turned all phones and internet off to go "blind" thinking it would blowup. it got closer and closer..but there was a problem...no lightning or even thunder.....no mammatus clouds in the anvil... I got a few sprinkles on the wind shield form the dying anvil...juts got home and checked the radar...looked decent in Fulton county but POOF confirmed with that cell..but storms to my NW ..