janetjanet998

18z NAM didn't even initialize the MCS on the Sim radar and shows no precip in that area ....and as a result the front is to far north for the position of later storms WTF? Is it blind?

to far north with features.....the current MCS is more south and the upcoming overnight back build tonight likely is too central and Southern IL

going to be some big totals around the pivot point as 35-45 DBZ's stay parked for hours Doppler is most likely underestimating precipitation amounts with this warm core system

LOT update GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THESE SUBTLE AND SMALL-SCALE FEATURES, AND IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO VORTICITY MAY BE PLAYING A ROLE IN THE MODEL VARIABILITY. BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS, IT DOES APPEAR AS IF A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION MAY PAN OUT HERE THIS EVENING, AND MORNING GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO LATCH ON TO THIS POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT, HAVE EXPANDED AND UPPED POPS NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A FAIRLY MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PWATS CONTINUING TO RIDE UPWARDS TODAY, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE INCREASING FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE/MCV COMBO INTERCEPTS THIS MOIST AIRMASS. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A TARGETED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80 AS THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD BRING THE BETTER DYNAMICS INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL, BUT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHIN PRECIP- LOADED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0455 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1110 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...MID-MS RIVER VALLEY CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 191509Z - 192109Z SUMMARY...CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES, SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS MAINTAINING A COMPACT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO, SOUTHEAST IA AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO AS OF 15Z WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE REGION. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN A MOSTLY CIN FREE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70, INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED AND IS CURRENTLY IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH ALMOST 2000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. ALL OF THIS IS WITHIN A ZONE OF HIGHER PWS, PER THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT, WHICH INDICATES VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL IL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ALREADY SHOWING HOURLY RATES GREATER THAN 1". THE 06Z HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE VERY HIGH PROBS OF RATES EXCEEDING 1" AND MODERATE PROBABILITIES (40-60 PERCENT) OF HOURLY RATES EXCEEDING 2" BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z. MOST OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL FALL ON SATURATED/WET SOILS, WHERE THE MOST RECENT AHPS 7-DAY PRECIP ANOMALIES ARE 200-400 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH THE EASTERN OUTLOOK AREA APPROACHING 600 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS SUCH, THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWERED (AROUND 2" FOR 1-HR) AND THIS SHOULD BE MET OR EXCEEDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL FLOW AND THE RECENT SOIL SATURATION GUIDANCE IS AROUND 85 PERCENT, WHICH SUGGESTS MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE RUNOFF. WITH THIS IN MIND, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES.

DVN just issued a flood watch for SE portions..I suspect ILX will expand more north to inlcude me and LOT will isssue south of I-80 just like a winter system.. .but instead of inches of snow inches of rain edit: ILX did expand watch a row of counties north but not Peoria yet

a last minute north jog for todays system...

0z just a taaaaaaad wound up....overdone and prob to far north then..just like a winter system

the train may be targeting INDY again Wish IND would reset total precip back to ZERO

a lot of water going into the OH river this evening.....looking at the radar it reminds me of a January train from IL to WV ..of course the ground is not frozen and vegetation is out..but still Wonder what the record crests/levels are for summer months along the river ..there isn't a top 70 crest at Paducah outside of winter or spring .... also the MS river at Red River Landing LA has been in flood since December.... 6 months..can they go the whole year? we better not get a tropical system up this way..but we are pushing our luck as time goes on with that SE ridge

LOL again' WUS01 KWNH 161922 FFGMPD OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-162330- MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0431...CORRECTED NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 321 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2019 CORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION TEXT AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN INDIANA, NORTHERN KENTUCKY, SOUTHWEST OHIO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 161916Z - 162330Z SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK IN A WEST-TO-EAST FASHION. THIS MAY ENABLE STORMS TO REPEATEDLY AFFECT SIMILAR AREAS, INCLUDING SOME AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...KLVX RADAR SHOWED A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER IN S IN AS OF 19Z. THE CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO A WEST-EAST BAND AND COULD ORIENT INTO A TRAINING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM S IN INTO N KY. AT THE MOMENT, THIS EMERGENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE AREAS WITH LOWEST FFG, AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT AN IMMEDIATE ALIGNMENT OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THAT WOULD FAVOR FLASH FLOODING, INCREASED TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FROM 19-22Z. THERE IS A GENERALLY DEEP ALIGNMENT OF THE FLOW FROM 925-500MB ON THE RADAR VWPS FROM KVWX AND KIND AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. THIS WOULD FAVOR TRAINING CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR. GOES-16 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND A COUPLE TOWERING CU OVER S IL IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THIS WAS SITUATED GENERALLY A BIT NORTH OF THE LATITUDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION, AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD TRACK ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS COULD POSE A GREATER FLASH FLOOD RISK, BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ONCE IT DOES DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THE BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW, DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO TRAINING WEST-EAST ORIENTED BANDS AND PRODUCE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM S IL INTO S IN. WITH TIME, THIS COULD BUILD INTO SW OH AND MORE OF N KY. A POTENTIALLY LIMITING FACTOR IN SW OH WOULD BE A MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL SBCINH (APPROX -50 J/KG) DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING UP AND THE RAP DOES INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

here we go again MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0428 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 936 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST OHIO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 161336Z - 161736Z SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MCV MOVING OUT OF EASTERN OHIO. CONVECTION MAY TRAIN IN THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN AREAS OF TRAINING...1"+ HOURLY PRECIP TOTALS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DISCUSSION...CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MCV OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...ACROSS AREAS FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO. SOME OF THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH FLASH FLOODING MORE LIKELY IF ADDITIONAL TRAINING OCCURS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. THE HI RES GUIDANCE FROM 0000 UTC AND THE 0600 UTC NAM CONEST DO NOT HAVE THIS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND ARE NOT HELPFUL WITH RESPECT TO HOW LONG IT MAY PERSIST. LATEST GOES 16 IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING COOLING CLOUD TOPS...SUGGESTING THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THERE MAY CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS WHERE THE CONVECTION DOES PERSIST. 958 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA... NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA... JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA... JENNINGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA... * UNTIL 200 PM EDT. * AT 956 AM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. AS MUCH AS 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0424 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1042 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IL...CENTRAL IND...SOUTHWEST OH...EXTREME NORTHERN KY... ONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 160245Z - 160815Z SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POTENTIAL OF UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT CONTINUES LIKELY FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION...GOES-16 10.3UM SHOWS COMPLEX OF COLD CLOUDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THOUGH HAVE RECENTLY SEEN A WARMING TREND WITH THE LOSS OF BEST INSTABILITY. DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT AS REPRESENTED BY 00Z ILN SOUNDING DEPICTS WEAK LAPSE RATES EVEN THOUGH THERE IS AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE (1.6" TPW) YIELDING AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION. YET, ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORABLY ALIGNED WEST-EAST AT THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING TROUGH OR EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IND TOWARD CINCINNATI METRO AREA OF THE MCV LIFTING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OH PER RADAR MOSAIC (INFLECTION AT DARKE COUNTY). CONFLUENT STRONG STEERING FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, SUPPORTING A TRAINING PROFILE. HOURLY RAIN-RATES OF 1.25-1.5" REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE WEAKENING CELLS WITH 2-3" TOTALS EXPECTED AS THEY TRAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS PUTS THE ROUGH TERRAIN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND THE CINCINNATI METRO AT PARTICULAR RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. OVERNIGHT, THE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN, PERHAPS EVEN ENHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MCS OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM DIRECTING FLOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WARM ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE AND WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERALLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE FLOW, ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THIS IS DUE TO THE USHERING IN OF A SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY UP TO 1.75" AND 1000-1500 J/KG THROUGH 06Z IN SW IND/S IL. CURRENTLY, THE FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED WARM TCU AS FAR WEST AS HUF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WITH NEW DEEPER CONVECTION AROUND 04-05Z WITH POTENTIAL OF 1.5"/HR TOTALS ACROSS AREAS AFFECTED BY EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL. FFG VALUES ARE ALREADY COMPROMISED WITH NUMEROUS LOCATIONS NEAR THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY AT OR BELOW .75"/HR AND 3HR VALUES OF 1.0-1.5". WHILE THE APPROACHING WAVE MAY LIFT THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH AND ANGLE MORE WNW TO ESE ACROSS IND, REDUCING SOME OF THE BEST ORIENTATION TO THE TRAINING STEERING FLOW; YET AT AN ANGLE STILL FAVORABLE FOR SUFFICIENT TRAINING OVER THESE SATURATED GROUNDS. AS SUCH FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY, PERHAPS EVEN LIFE-THREATENING IF TRAINING IS IDEAL THROUGH 09Z. THIS COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE RANGE OF 5" LOCALLY ACROSS S IND INTO CINCINNATI METRO PER SOME HI-RES CAMS THOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF UNCERTAINTY IN EACH GUIDANCE MEMBER'S PRECISE EVOLUTION FOR EVEN MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTREME TOTALS. GALLINA

3.82 at IND today if my math is correct

blended into the line but.. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 824 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... SOUTHEASTERN LOUISA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * AT 824 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER OAKVILLE, OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WAPELLO, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

back west RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 710 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ILLINOIS FAR EASTERN KANSAS NORTHERN MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

No of course not, LOL but you can bet if that was coming off the African coast it would be tagged.. 500mb temps are even a tad warmer then surrounding areas there even seems to be an upper level high around NE OK helping to fan out the outflow and some models do indeed develop a full surface low as it moves into OH this evening call it a Midwestern African wave I have actually in the past seen big well developed MCS's sag into the Gulf and become invests though

GFS has 3 slow moving lows loaded with moisture this week] one this weekend now over NW IA crawls into OH monday another reforms tuesday over S IL and the third wed-thursday

Tropical Weather Discussion Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on June 15, 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of mexico: A well defined wave was located over MO this morning. Satellite and surface obs suggest a surface low may be forming. Outflow is good in all quads but restricted some on the west side. Wind shear data from the University of Wisconsin suggest light to moderate wind shear of 10-20 kts over the system. Joplin MO recently reported a substained wind of 25 kts gusting to 40 kts . Models indicted this surface low will become better defined during the next 12 hours There is a medium;. 40%, chance of tropical development with this system as it moves ENE around 30kts

amazing how long MS river has been above flood stage in STL....and at baton Rouge in LA see the pattern at STL? peaks and valleys from wet weeks and then drier weeks...but each crest is higher

big time trouble ahead for MO..Lake Truman hit its second highest level ever a few days ago as they held back as much water as possible on the Osage for the MO/MS river....50,000 cfs is coming out of the dam now and they expect it to continue for "weeks" GFS/CMC extremely wet for MO Into OH valley ..MS river will still be at 43-43.5 feet thru tomorrow at STL... still around the pre-1993 record stage

Most models , expect CMC , keep NE IL/ NW IND rather dry with a high pressure shield ... I'm not sure what a stronger system would mean rainfall wise for the track of the ULL and such......if it does develop .... at this point it looks sloppy

another background articles Part 1: America's Achilles' Heel: the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Americas-Achilles-Heel-Mississippi-Rivers-Old-River-Control-Structure Part 2: Escalating Floods Putting Mississippi River’s Old River Control Structure at Risk https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Escalating-Floods-Putting-Mississippi-Rivers-Old-River-Control-Structure-Risk Part 3 If the Old River Control Structure Fails: A Catastrophe With Global Impact https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/If-Old-River-Control-Structure-Fails-Catastrophe-Global-Impact

Cliff notes: Huge amounts of water going down the MS river this year is putting pressure on the control structures...each flood year dumps silt near the structures also causing problems. The structures are the only thing keeping the MS river from changing course ....if this happens Baton Rouge and New Orleans will loose most of the river....bye bye to barge traffic and oil inudustry This year the MS River has been in flood since December near these structures , a new record for longevity They are going to try to take some pressure off by opening the Morganza Spillway for only the 3rd time since it was built..Last Time in 2011 and Look at the precipitation forecast...YIKES! best summary is this Youtube Video from a local..also an accuweather article below How catastrophic flooding could change the course of the Mississippi River https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/ongoing-flooding-may-threaten-mississippi-rivers-old-river-control-structure/70008430