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AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI... ..SUMMARY A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG TORNADOES AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EVENING. ..UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES UPGRADING TO MODERATE RISK THIS OUTLOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL THREATS OF MULTIPLE STRONG TORNADOES AND A DERECHO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE/SHEAR/SRH PARAMETER SPACE IN THIS REGION IS FORECAST TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY RARE FOR MID JULY AMID A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD AIDED BY WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AROUND 700 MB ALONG A PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE. 00Z CAM GUIDANCE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS MORNING AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH A DECAYING TREND THROUGH LATE MORNING AS ADVECTION SHIFTS EAST AMID PRONOUNCED MLCIN AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z ABERDEEN SOUNDING. THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO THAT A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED WITH THIS EARLY-DAY CLUSTER SUCH THAT TOTAL DECAY DOES NOT OCCUR. IF THIS OCCURS, ROBUST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING DOWNSTREAM MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN INCREASING THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS COULD STILL YIELD A SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND SCENARIO, ALBEIT IN AN EARLIER TIME FRAME THAN PROGGED BY GUIDANCE. THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MLCAPE > 4000 J/KG) TO BECOME ESTABLISHED TO FROM SOUTHEAST SD THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AS THE ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER OVERSPREADS SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL SD SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THIS CYCLONE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUSTAIN SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN. ONCE INITIATION OCCURS, INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES AMID 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH > 300 M2/S2. THE VERY WARM/MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL ALSO SUPPORT GENERATION OF STRONG COLD POOLS WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD A BOWING, FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS NORTHERN WI INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND UPPER MI. STRENGTH OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF YIELDING A DERECHO WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..LOWER GREAT LAKES AN MCV PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BUT MODESTLY SHEARED. EXPECTATION IS FOR PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR, OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

and the river at NOLA will be above 15 feet well into August.... they just announced today they are keeping the spillway up north open longer (was going to close this week) and up north isn't exactly dry (not hugely wet) as a front moves from north to south dumping rain in the watershed.. plus once they close the spillway... about 125,000 cfs of extra water will flow downstream ..at 16 feet the flow is 1,250,000 bfs at NOLA so the closing of the spillway will off set some any reduction of flow from up north to sum up: NOLA still at risk from storm surge going up river The Bonnet Carre Spillway will have to remain open longer than officials were hoping for as rainwater from once Hurricane Barry makes it’s way down the Mississippi River. Corps of Engineers spokesperson Ricky Boyett says before they can close the Spillway, the river must drop to 21 feet at the structure, but that’s just not happening… “Right now what we are really waiting on is for the rain to finish. As Barry moves up the valley, it’s putting more rain in the river and ultimately that rain has to come down to us.” 21 feet at the Spillway would put the river around 16 feet in New Orleans. Boyett says they aren’t concerned that the additional water will put any of the levee system in danger. “We’re not seeing a rise, what we’re seeing is an extended fall. It’s going to level out for about a week or so, and then we will start to see a slow fall.” https://kpel965.com/bonnet-carre-to-remain-open/

models drive a front into the gulf....got to watch the tail end this time of year euro shows hints of this

EURO still wants a west track and brings it up our way over our soggy ground...GFS east

several storms warned I don't understand why LOT is so stubborn about resetting total storm precipitation ....it's a useless mess of 4-5 days of systems and wind farm clutter

S IL update With seep-water still rising, small Southern Illinois towns face 'critical' flood fight MCCLURE — The Mississippi River reached its highest point weeks ago in deep Southern Illinois, but the waters threatening homes in the communities of McClure and East Cape Girardeau continue to rise. The river remains in “major” flood stage, and the levees that hold it at bay have been saturated for months. That has allowed massive amounts of water to seep through the embankments and flow into McClure and East Cape. “It went up an inch here yesterday,” said Jamie Myers, volunteer coordinator for relief efforts in McClure, his hometown. “The situation is critical.” https://thesouthern.com/news/local/environment/with-seep-water-still-rising-small-southern-illinois-towns-face/article_e761ef42-a33a-5405-ae72-9dfa6869499c.html#utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

interesting storm report 0134 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE BIG ROCK 41.79N 88.53W 06/30/2019 KANE IL TRAINED SPOTTER VIDEO AND DETAILED DESCRIPTION SHOWING TWO WELL-DEFINED GUSTNADOS AT THE CORNER OF SCOTT AND DAUBERMAN ROADS. DEBRIS WAS BLOWN OVER 3/4 OF A MILE TO THE SOUTH.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 555 PM CDT FLIPPING THE CALENDAR BACK EXACTLY FIVE YEARS AGO TODAY PROVIDES A GUIDE FOR HOW THE REST OF THE EVENING COULD EVOLVE, ALTHOUGH MAINLY WEST OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR RATHER THAN ACROSS THE KANKAKEE VALLEY AS IT DID FIVE YEARS AGO. THOUGH HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL NOT GET QUITE AS ACTIVE AS THAT EVENT. THE CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHWEST WI. SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF LARGE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN IL WHILE AREAS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S FIRST EVENT ARE MORE WORKED OVER. WE DO NOT HOWEVER KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE HOW SHALLOW THE STABLE LAYER MIGHT BE. WE DO KNOW THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN ONE TORNADO WARNING ISSUED UPSTREAM. 0-1KM SRH VALUES ON THE MESOANALYSIS PAGE IN THE 100-200 M2/S2 RANGE ACROSS THAT AREA ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH, BUT LIKE FIVE YEARS AGO THESE ARE PROBABLY UNDERDONE BY QUITE A BIT BASED ON THE UNREPRESENTATIVE AND TOO SLOW STORM MOTION AROUND 15 KTS USED TO CALCULATE THESE VALUES. INSTEAD THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE HAS BEEN MOVING CLOSER TO 50 KTS WHICH WOULD GREATLY RAMP UP THE SRH VALUES AND SUPPORT A GREATER TORNADIC THREAT THAN MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. THIS OF COURSE DEPENDS ON THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER BEING SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS, AND THAT REMAINS THE KEY QUESTION AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF MDW AND ORD SUGGEST THE STABLE LAYER IS AROUND 2000' DEEP AT THIS TIME, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY AT THE SURFACE, BUT THIS IS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING CLUSTER AND MORE RECENTLY AFFECTED BY THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY. THE OTHER HINT OF A LINGERING SURFACE STABLE LAYER IS THE WIDESPREAD AP SEEN ON RADAR TO OUR WEST, THOUGH THIS ALSO WAS PRESENT DURING THE 2014 EVENT UP TO THE TIME THAT TORNADOES STARTED TO DEVELOP. WHAT ISN'T AS EVIDENT THIS EVENING SO FAR IS THE LOCATION OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE FIRST EVENT, WHICH WOULD SERVE TO FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY. SO FOR NOW THE TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HIGH RELATIVE TO A RENEWED DAMAGING WIND THREAT, BUT IF OUTFLOW FROM THE INITIAL STORMS TODAY MANAGES TO EVOLVE INTO AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NW IL THEN THINGS COULD GET MORE ACTIVE. ANOTHER KEY FACTOR THAT IS MISSING RELATIVE TO FIVE YEARS AGO IS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ASSIST IN ORGANIZATION AND MAINTENANCE OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WINDS AT 500MB ARE ONLY IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS THAT THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM STAYS WEST OF OUR AREA AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS OVER US. BUT WE ARE JUST TRYING TO CONVEY THE FULL RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. LENNING

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 345 PM CDT. * AT 300 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOMENCE TO ST. ANNE TO NEAR CLIFTON TO 7 MILES WEST OF ASHKUM, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS.

ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0509 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 319 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TO EAST-CENTRAL IL...WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IN CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 301915Z - 010115Z SUMMARY...AN EXPANDING AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES/HR. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-16 IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING AN EXPANSION OF COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LONG-LIVED MCS THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN WI OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL WHERE THIS IS CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL ZONE. THE AIRMASS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF LOCALLY OVER 4000 J/KG. THERE IS A WARM NOSE UP AROUND 700 MB AS SEEN IN A SPECIAL 18Z RAOB SOUNDING FROM KILX, BUT VERY STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION/BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE EXCEEDED WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A STEADY DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN IL. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF IL, AND ALSO POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND WITHIN A RATHER NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG AND UNCAPPED INSTABILITY AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN MO AND MUCH OF IA. THE CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES, AND A CONSIDERABLE CONTRIBUTION OF THIS COMING FROM A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAINFALL TOTALS OF AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES/HR, WITH STORM TOTALS THROUGH 00Z OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WHERE SOME LOCALIZED REPEATING OF CELLS OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE HEAVY SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES, AND EXPECTED TOTALS, SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NE IL may be under the gun ....the current storms on the western flank are slower moving/merging over the extreme SW burbs and most models redevelop storms tonight EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1153 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2019 DAY 1 VALID 16Z SUN JUN 30 2019 - 12Z MON JUL 01 2019 ..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST... 16Z UPDATE: CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. MIXED MODEL SIGNAL WITH THIS EVOLUTION...BUT TEND TO THINK THE MCS WILL PERSIST SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY SHOWING AT LEAST SOME RESTRENGTHENING OVER PORTIONS OF IL AND WESTERN IN. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO STAY PROGRESSIVE, CELL MERGING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE RESTRENGTHENING PHASE, RESULTING IN SOME FLASH FLOOD THREAT. REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS MCS OVERNIGHT ALONG A NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN A MIXED MODEL SIGNAL WITH THIS, BUT THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL EVOLVE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THE SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING. THE EXPERIMENTAL FV3 NSSL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ONGOING MCS, AND IT IS ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. GIVEN ITS GOOD HANDLING OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY, AND ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE OF LATE, THE FV3 NSSL DEPICTION IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THUS SOME THREAT THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD EVOLVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI INTO IL. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT, BUT DEFINITELY WORTH MONITORING.

it was moving ESE...split into two parts...the western portion turned right and moved due south a even a hair west of due south....but now is turning back left and moving more east ( or SE again) some how missing north central IL

small CU bubbling up already in NE IL along the front/old outflow ..........if storms form along the front ahead of the main complex...could have more water issues

slight risk nudged south into N IL ..UPPER MS VALLEY A LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MN TODAY, WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION AFFECTING NORTHERN IA AND FAR WESTERN WI. A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES OVER MUCH OF IA/IL, AND SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS, COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AMPLE CAPE WILL PROMOTE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLGT AND ENH RISK AREAS, BUT WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR TENDENCY OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCS.

or maybe later today? or both? ..models not catching on to the south end of that MCS very well.. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0849 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IA...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 271349Z - 271515Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 SOON. DISCUSSION...RADAR SIGNATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER MCS MOVING INTO MN AND NORTHERN IA HAS SHOWN INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND FORWARD PROPAGATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. CURRENT STORM MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 35 KT. AT THIS SPEED, THE LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DMX CWA AROUND 15Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, BRINGING IT TO THAT REGION EARLIER. ORGANIZING CHARACTER OF THIS LINE AND DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL IA. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN MAY REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 BY 15Z. AS A RESULT, ANOTHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN MN SOON.

lots of trees down across the PIA area last evening...the soggy ground didn't help

as was somewhat predictable.. models are now wetter for the IL/IA/WI area all week as its MCS heaven ....this of course will temper and nudge south any "heat" dome.. although it was never super hot to begin with

its keeps getting worse here on the protected side of the levee.. ...more info: its a combo of seep water under the levee and local run off its still rising as it has been for months. up 3 inches just the other day alone they won't open the levee gates to start draining until the river falls below 30 feet..it still above 40.. Serious flooding continues to affect southern and western Illinois, and on Monday the Division of Aeronautics surveyed the McClure-East Cape Girardeau-Gale area in Alexander County. https://twitter.com/IDOTDistrict9/status/1143632101604057093 Worst yet to come in Illinois flood fight https://www.semissourian.com/story/2617492.html

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.

maybe a surprise with that mid level vortex moving NNE near STL? Sun is partly out here all morning

yep..5 days ago it was heat and humidity, and heavy rain for us for this period....everything way south I think next week is our turn...maybe smaller sized MCS's 12z GFS more active then before basically has pockets of high PW values (>1.5) and small complexes every day in IL/IA this week many moving SE or even SSE

Here is a trouble spot....on the IL side of the MS river across form Cape Girardeau This isn't flooding directly from the river rather then backwater rising for weeks because the local runoff is greater then the outflow to the clogged MS river even though the river has been slowly falling this water is still slowly rising..a huge lake has formed locals are saying this is the worse it has ever been...it was also over the road in 1993 but the road has been raised since then.... it is common to have water here but not near this much This road (Rt 3) closed last night..and another line of storms moving in

I wonder if the models will start to trend south with the heat dome for later in the week..it seems wagons south this year so far also that would mean any MCSs will be more South as they turn the ridge and move SE

will the heavy rain ever make it to the I-80/ Chicago metro area in IL with this set up? Models totally missing the new MO convection...this of course will slow the NE movement of the front again..blah blah blah etc etc etc ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0478 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 851 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURRI CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 221250Z - 221650Z SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE TRAINING POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ENHANCING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION DEVELOPING QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NO INDICATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE 0000 UTC HI RES GUIDANCE OR THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. THE ONLY MODELS THAT DOES SHOW SOME INDICATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS THE 0600 UTC NAM CONEST...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO WEAK AND SHOWS THE ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A WELL DEFINED AXIS OF SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE OUTFLOW AND CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF OBSERVED HEAVY RAINS. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AXIS IN THE RAP32 PERSISTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LESS DEFINED. GIVEN POOR MODEL DEPICTION, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION...BELIEVE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY BE ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN AREAS OF TRAINING...HOURLY RATES OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.

classic MO/IA border MCS diving ESE just south of me last night long range is very warm and muggy ..but not "hot" ..although it will be "drier" there is no huge sinking air high pressure and high PW values staying around afternoon 30% coverage with heavy downpours....with the wet ground isolated flooding still possible some days will be higher as poorly modeled systems round the ridge enhancing the coverage also GFS has been hinting at some kind of weak low getting stuck over the western KY area later next week