janetjanet998

cloud cover still over the NE half of the enhanced area

a couple hours old but DVN update..mentionss faster movement of the speed max or MCV .UPDATE... Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 An MCV and upper level shortwave were moving into east central Iowa at 11 am, spawning a large area of redeveloping showers as the lift was encountering the destabilizing airmass over southeast Iowa, northeast MO and west central IL. With MUCAPES of 1000 J/KG, this activity that formed over the last hour has yet to produce lightning, but could intensify as the large scale lift from the shortwave spreads east-southeast into an area that has seen filtered sunshine. Bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts in the 0-3 km layer in this same area will also favor intensification. These trends have so far not been handled by high res convective allowing models, which continue to catch up to the faster progression of the MCV. Will still need to watch for the track and timing of the main surface low out over west central IA late this morning, which will be the main trigger for additional storms later this afternoon and evening as 12Z global models have this feature reaching west central IL by 00Z. Trends with cloud cover and how much surface CAPE develops in the wake of the current activity will be critical as there may be sufficient low level shear/helicity along the surface boundary and low center for supercells and related severe weather hazards including tornadoes. This is outlined in SPC`s Enhanced Risk area maintained over SE IA into west central IL. The forecast has been updated for the trends with less thunderstorm coverage, but widespread showers late morning into early in the afternoon. This may also hold high temperatures down some, especially across the north.

I have to wonder how that 60kt 500mb speed max currently over eastern IA will play a role... it is forecast to move into IND and weaken decreasing deep layer shear in fact 16z RAP only has 35-40 kt flow at 00z over IL..unless it is weakening it too fast with COD down....can't view the radar VADs

Is COD nexlab down?

ILX special sounding at 20Z there is a 60 kt mid level speed eastern IA now...but models have it moving east.....

and the river at NOLA will be above 15 feet well into August.... they just announced today they are keeping the spillway up north open longer (was going to close this week) and up north isn't exactly dry (not hugely wet) as a front moves from north to south dumping rain in the watershed.. plus once they close the spillway... about 125,000 cfs of extra water will flow downstream ..at 16 feet the flow is 1,250,000 bfs at NOLA so the closing of the spillway will off set some any reduction of flow from up north to sum up: NOLA still at risk from storm surge going up river The Bonnet Carre Spillway will have to remain open longer than officials were hoping for as rainwater from once Hurricane Barry makes it’s way down the Mississippi River. Corps of Engineers spokesperson Ricky Boyett says before they can close the Spillway, the river must drop to 21 feet at the structure, but that’s just not happening… “Right now what we are really waiting on is for the rain to finish. As Barry moves up the valley, it’s putting more rain in the river and ultimately that rain has to come down to us.” 21 feet at the Spillway would put the river around 16 feet in New Orleans. Boyett says they aren’t concerned that the additional water will put any of the levee system in danger. “We’re not seeing a rise, what we’re seeing is an extended fall. It’s going to level out for about a week or so, and then we will start to see a slow fall.” https://kpel965.com/bonnet-carre-to-remain-open/

models drive a front into the gulf....got to watch the tail end this time of year euro shows hints of this

EURO still wants a west track and brings it up our way over our soggy ground...GFS east

several storms warned I don't understand why LOT is so stubborn about resetting total storm precipitation ....it's a useless mess of 4-5 days of systems and wind farm clutter

interesting storm report 0134 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE BIG ROCK 41.79N 88.53W 06/30/2019 KANE IL TRAINED SPOTTER VIDEO AND DETAILED DESCRIPTION SHOWING TWO WELL-DEFINED GUSTNADOS AT THE CORNER OF SCOTT AND DAUBERMAN ROADS. DEBRIS WAS BLOWN OVER 3/4 OF A MILE TO THE SOUTH.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 555 PM CDT FLIPPING THE CALENDAR BACK EXACTLY FIVE YEARS AGO TODAY PROVIDES A GUIDE FOR HOW THE REST OF THE EVENING COULD EVOLVE, ALTHOUGH MAINLY WEST OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR RATHER THAN ACROSS THE KANKAKEE VALLEY AS IT DID FIVE YEARS AGO. THOUGH HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL NOT GET QUITE AS ACTIVE AS THAT EVENT. THE CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHWEST WI. SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF LARGE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN IL WHILE AREAS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S FIRST EVENT ARE MORE WORKED OVER. WE DO NOT HOWEVER KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE HOW SHALLOW THE STABLE LAYER MIGHT BE. WE DO KNOW THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN ONE TORNADO WARNING ISSUED UPSTREAM. 0-1KM SRH VALUES ON THE MESOANALYSIS PAGE IN THE 100-200 M2/S2 RANGE ACROSS THAT AREA ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH, BUT LIKE FIVE YEARS AGO THESE ARE PROBABLY UNDERDONE BY QUITE A BIT BASED ON THE UNREPRESENTATIVE AND TOO SLOW STORM MOTION AROUND 15 KTS USED TO CALCULATE THESE VALUES. INSTEAD THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE HAS BEEN MOVING CLOSER TO 50 KTS WHICH WOULD GREATLY RAMP UP THE SRH VALUES AND SUPPORT A GREATER TORNADIC THREAT THAN MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. THIS OF COURSE DEPENDS ON THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER BEING SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS, AND THAT REMAINS THE KEY QUESTION AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF MDW AND ORD SUGGEST THE STABLE LAYER IS AROUND 2000' DEEP AT THIS TIME, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY AT THE SURFACE, BUT THIS IS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING CLUSTER AND MORE RECENTLY AFFECTED BY THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY. THE OTHER HINT OF A LINGERING SURFACE STABLE LAYER IS THE WIDESPREAD AP SEEN ON RADAR TO OUR WEST, THOUGH THIS ALSO WAS PRESENT DURING THE 2014 EVENT UP TO THE TIME THAT TORNADOES STARTED TO DEVELOP. WHAT ISN'T AS EVIDENT THIS EVENING SO FAR IS THE LOCATION OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE FIRST EVENT, WHICH WOULD SERVE TO FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY. SO FOR NOW THE TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HIGH RELATIVE TO A RENEWED DAMAGING WIND THREAT, BUT IF OUTFLOW FROM THE INITIAL STORMS TODAY MANAGES TO EVOLVE INTO AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NW IL THEN THINGS COULD GET MORE ACTIVE. ANOTHER KEY FACTOR THAT IS MISSING RELATIVE TO FIVE YEARS AGO IS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ASSIST IN ORGANIZATION AND MAINTENANCE OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WINDS AT 500MB ARE ONLY IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS THAT THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM STAYS WEST OF OUR AREA AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS OVER US. BUT WE ARE JUST TRYING TO CONVEY THE FULL RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. LENNING

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 345 PM CDT. * AT 300 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOMENCE TO ST. ANNE TO NEAR CLIFTON TO 7 MILES WEST OF ASHKUM, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS.

slight risk nudged south into N IL ..UPPER MS VALLEY A LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MN TODAY, WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION AFFECTING NORTHERN IA AND FAR WESTERN WI. A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES OVER MUCH OF IA/IL, AND SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS, COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AMPLE CAPE WILL PROMOTE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLGT AND ENH RISK AREAS, BUT WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR TENDENCY OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCS.

or maybe later today? or both? ..models not catching on to the south end of that MCS very well.. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0849 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IA...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 271349Z - 271515Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IA AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 SOON. DISCUSSION...RADAR SIGNATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER MCS MOVING INTO MN AND NORTHERN IA HAS SHOWN INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND FORWARD PROPAGATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. CURRENT STORM MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 35 KT. AT THIS SPEED, THE LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DMX CWA AROUND 15Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, BRINGING IT TO THAT REGION EARLIER. ORGANIZING CHARACTER OF THIS LINE AND DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL IA. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN MAY REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 BY 15Z. AS A RESULT, ANOTHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN MN SOON.

lots of trees down across the PIA area last evening...the soggy ground didn't help

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.

maybe a surprise with that mid level vortex moving NNE near STL? Sun is partly out here all morning

I wonder if the models will start to trend south with the heat dome for later in the week..it seems wagons south this year so far also that would mean any MCSs will be more South as they turn the ridge and move SE

blended into the line but.. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 824 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... SOUTHEASTERN LOUISA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * AT 824 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER OAKVILLE, OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WAPELLO, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

back west RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 710 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ILLINOIS FAR EASTERN KANSAS NORTHERN MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

latest HRRR fires ZERO convection over downstate IL in the enhanced area

as others have pointed out..dewpoints lower then modeled The corn crop should be sprouting by now in a normal year and add moisture to the air from here on out... even though the ground is wet ...I wonder if models will be too high on dew points in the coming weeks since most of the corn isn't even planted yet also will that complex in MI throw back sinking air back west?

another busted MCS fail and LOT flood watch HRRR as late as 10z had very heavy rains and intense storms in the current cluster over me.....which is nothing but light to moderate rain right now I don't understand why models had this holding ins own all night then go poof again over N IL...im talking about the bigger one over MCI last evening not the smaller lead one usually these don't start to weaken until 6-7am or so....not 1-2am

The storms near the MO/IA border are classic let’s turn and/or develop ESE and miss Peoria to the SW .. I will get some thunder and moderate rain .. even if models say it will move ENE and move over me or north it will turn more right 80 percent of the time I always get a chuckle out of the local tv Mets showing future radar and having them hitting Peoria head on expect a couple t-storm warnings and many flash warnings to my SW

ouch ILX LOOKING AT CAMS, THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN WRONG IN ABOUT EVERY DIRECTION THEY GO. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS TIMES WHEN THERE IS NOTHING ON CAMS, BUT YET THERE IS EITHER DEVELOPMENT OR ONGOING PRECIPITATION. SO AS FOR HOW MUCH I TRUST THESE MODEL INDICATIONS, I CANNOT SAY I RELY ON THEM AT THE CURRENT MOMENT.