janetjanet998

cloud cover still over the NE half of the enhanced area

a couple hours old but DVN update..mentionss faster movement of the speed max or MCV .UPDATE... Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 An MCV and upper level shortwave were moving into east central Iowa at 11 am, spawning a large area of redeveloping showers as the lift was encountering the destabilizing airmass over southeast Iowa, northeast MO and west central IL. With MUCAPES of 1000 J/KG, this activity that formed over the last hour has yet to produce lightning, but could intensify as the large scale lift from the shortwave spreads east-southeast into an area that has seen filtered sunshine. Bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kts in the 0-3 km layer in this same area will also favor intensification. These trends have so far not been handled by high res convective allowing models, which continue to catch up to the faster progression of the MCV. Will still need to watch for the track and timing of the main surface low out over west central IA late this morning, which will be the main trigger for additional storms later this afternoon and evening as 12Z global models have this feature reaching west central IL by 00Z. Trends with cloud cover and how much surface CAPE develops in the wake of the current activity will be critical as there may be sufficient low level shear/helicity along the surface boundary and low center for supercells and related severe weather hazards including tornadoes. This is outlined in SPC`s Enhanced Risk area maintained over SE IA into west central IL. The forecast has been updated for the trends with less thunderstorm coverage, but widespread showers late morning into early in the afternoon. This may also hold high temperatures down some, especially across the north.

I have to wonder how that 60kt 500mb speed max currently over eastern IA will play a role... it is forecast to move into IND and weaken decreasing deep layer shear in fact 16z RAP only has 35-40 kt flow at 00z over IL..unless it is weakening it too fast with COD down....can't view the radar VADs

Is COD nexlab down?

ILX special sounding at 20Z there is a 60 kt mid level speed eastern IA now...but models have it moving east.....

check to the GRB VAD 90KTS At 9KFT time stamp 0226Z

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 524... VALID 192353Z - 200130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 524 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF WW 524 WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WW 525 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DISCUSSION...A LARGE, HP SUPERCELL OVER WEST-CENTRAL WI CONTINUES A TRANSITION INTO A BOW ECHO EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR VELOCITY TRENDS FROM KDLH AND KARX SHOW INCREASING MIDLEVEL VELOCITIES GREATER THAN 80 KTS IN THE 8-12 KFT LAYER. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATOR THAT DOWNDRAFTS ARE INCREASING AND A REAR INFLOW JET MAY BE DEVELOPING. KARX VWP IS ALSO SHOWING THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET NICELY, WITH 35-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER. AS THE BOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED, EXPECT THE SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION TO BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS STORMS TRACK INTO WW 525. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WFO ARX COULD EXPAND WW 525 SOUTHWARD IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF WW 524 OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE MAIN BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL MN, BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAKENING FURTHER WEST AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS FURTHER WEST INTO THE EVENING, BUT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING BOW.

given the wording on the watch...does SPC go HIGH risk for wind overnight on next the update?

I have seen many 90's....don't recall a 105 or even 100 I wonder why they went with 105 anyway? rather the a nice even number like 100

The very rare PDS T-storm watch.. why so very rare? I think some forecasters would just make this a tornado watch (says likely tornadoes)...others this extremely strongly worded blue box... RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 550 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 550 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 105 MPH EXPECTED SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY SUMMARY...AN INTENSE SUPERCELL CLUSTER IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING BOW ECHO THAT WILL ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SWATHS OF HIGH-END, DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 100 MPH. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS, AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LINGERING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

impressive PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 524 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0514 PM TSTM WND GST CUSHING 45.57N 92.65W 07/19/2019 M84 MPH POLK WI TRAINED SPOTTER ALSO SUSTAINED WIND 73 MPH FOR 5 MINUTES.

file this day under "tornado potential not fully realized" SWOMCD SPC MCD 192215 WIZ000-192345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0515 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 192215Z - 192345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS WILL TRANSITION INTO BOWING SEGMENTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT INTENSE BOW TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING AND A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON. DISCUSSION...EARLIER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN HAVE BEGUN TO TRANSITION INTO BOWING CLUSTERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY APPARENT IN THICK HCR/CLOUD STREET CU FIELD STREAMING INTO ONGOING CONVECTION. PRESSURE FALLS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WI OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE RESULTED IN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND CONVECTION HAS STARTED DEVELOPING INTO THIS INFLOW. 2-6 KM LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8 C/KM ARE AIDING IN LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF 2+ INCH HAIL HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED. THIS HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM SUPERCELLS INTO A BOW ECHO, THE HAIL THREAT WILL DIMINISH SOME WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A 40-50 KT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING, SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT (POSSIBLY EVEN GREATER THAN 80 MPH). IN ADDITION TO INTENSE WIND POTENTIAL, QLCS TORNADOES THROUGH MESOVORTEX PROCESSES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. REGION VWP WIND PROFILES SHOW ENHANCED VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES WITH MESOANALYSIS INDICATING A LARGE AREA OF EFFECTIVE SRH GREATER THAN 250 M2/S2 ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST STORM TRACK BRINGS THE LEAD SUPERCELL/BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS SAWYER COUNTY WI TO THE EDGE OF WW 524 BY 23Z AND A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL BE NEED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI. ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 07/19/2019

got to watch the tail end Charles (storms on the SW flanks) if they can remain discrete and hook

pretty much sums it up REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 411 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 MAIN CONCERN TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OF THE MORE IMPRESSIVE PARAMETER SPACES YOU'LL SEE IN JULY EXISTS OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SO FAR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND TAP INTO THIS MORE- FAVORABLE AIR. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 80 EXIST PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 ACROSS MN AND WI, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF WARMING SO FAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-5000 J/KG, ALONG WITH SPRING-LIKE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60 KTS THANKS TO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUMMER JETSTREAK OF 130+ KTS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA. THESE PARAMETERS EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND WE'RE ALREADY SEEING A FEW ALREADY TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ORTONVILLE TO MORA LINE. SO FAR, THESE SUPERCELLS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED IN THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH AND HAVE THUS ONLY CARRIED A LARGE HAIL THREAT, WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF GOLF- BALL SIZED OR LARGER HAIL. SHOULD THESE STORMS BECOME SURFACE- BASED AS THEY HEAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE CREATING FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR TORNADOES WITH 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS OF 15-20 KTS BOTH SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO THIS TORNADO THREAT, VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN OWING TO A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE AT 700 MB. OUR 18Z SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING SHOWED 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 14.1 C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY WOULD EASILY BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION FROM FORMING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA, A CONDITIONAL (YET SMALL) THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS DOES EXIST FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

TWIN CITIES PTSUNNY 91 80 SE16G26 29.62F HX 109

typical with these set ups with extreme instability this time of year..storms aren't totally surface based and become outflow dominated.... supercell composite up to 64...but it looks like the true warm sector capped

SPC backing off Tornado threat? MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 524... VALID 192053Z - 192300Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 524 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, WITH A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DISCUSSION...A EAST-WEST LINE OF CELLS, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS, IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE AND TURN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE STORM MODE IS CELLULAR AS OF 21Z, BACKBUILDING IS LIKELY DUE TO AN INFLUX OF EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR, AIDED BY 35+ KT SOUTHWEST 850 MB WINDS. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT, AND WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE AND ACCELERATE WITH A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, A TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS OVER MINNESOTA, AND BEFORE OUTFLOWS EVENTUALLY MERGE.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 524 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA NORTHWEST WISCONSIN * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED, INITIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA, THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTHWARD. LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO AN EASTWARD-ACCELERATING STORM COMPLEX BY THIS EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN INTO WISCONSIN.

storms developing but pretty far north along the northern "front"..may be slightly elevated over warm layer for now southern outflow seen right in the middle of MSP radar site

winds have turned due east or even NE in the MSP metro...that outflow is pretty far south now..but should move/mix more north again

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN... ..SUMMARY A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ..UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THAT SAID, SOME SPECIFIC UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH THE TIMING DETAILS/EXACT SUB-REGIONAL CORRIDOR OF PEAK SEVERE-WEATHER RISK GIVEN CAPPING/WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE EARLIER MCS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. A VERY STRONG SUMMERTIME BELT OF WESTERLIES EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, WITH 50-100 KT WESTERLIES NOTED BETWEEN 500/250 MB IN 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA SPANNING MONTANA TO THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. WHERE STORMS DEVELOP/INCREASE LATER TODAY, THIS VERY STRONG BELT OF WINDS ALOFT WILL BE INFLUENTIAL IN STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF A FAST-MOVING MCS (POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY DERECHO) LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. CONSULT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523 REGARDING MIDDAY DETAILS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EMANATE FROM THE ASCENT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING RELATED TO THE MCS REMNANTS, FOCUSING DOWNSTREAM SURFACE-BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MLCAPE >4000 J/KG) WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER OVERSPREADS SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTAS SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THIS CYCLONE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUSTAIN SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO AMID 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH >300 M2/S2. THE VERY WARM/MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL ALSO SUPPORT GENERATION OF STRONG COLD POOLS WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD A BOWING, FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND UPPER MICHIGAN. STRENGTH OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF YIELDING A DERECHO WITH SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES HAVE UPGRADED PARTS OF THE REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM-WIND RELATED POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS WILL BE RELATED TO THE POSSIBLE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PERSISTENCE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS ONTARIO AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THAT IS EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMBIENT AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BUT THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT. THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR, OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

The clouds/precip moving into the MOD risk area, have got to have at least some affect on the parameters and/or location

this is a two part threat: 1) Tornadic supercells at first 2) Then storms merging into that derercho..with isolated weaker spin ups still possible

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 191606Z - 191800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TRENDS AROUND A DYING MCS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR EVENTUAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. DISCUSSION...A SMALL BUT IMPRESSIVE MCS HAS FINALLY DIED OVER NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN, AND IS NOW PRODUCING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS COMPLEX WAS BEING SUSTAINED BY ELEVATED PARCELS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS CAPPED THIS MORNING. GIVEN DECREASING NEAR-TERM TRENDS, THE LARGE CIRRUS CANOPY IS EXPECTED TO THIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE WHICH WILL AID INSOLATION. IN ADDITION, THE OUTFLOW SHOULD MODIFY AS WELL. THIS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW MAY SERVE AS THE STORM INITIATION ZONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE UPSTREAM, AND SOUTHWEST WINDS CREATE LIFT. A LONE CELL CURRENTLY EXITS ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS. THIS GENERAL ZONE, AND EXTENDING EAST ALONG A MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE MONITORED AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE. ANY SIGNS OF SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE A WATCH FOR A TORNADO AND WIND THREAT. ..JEWELL/GUYER.. 07/19/2019

That T-storm cluster is still going pretty good and a new storm on the western flank...I wonder if it will retard the WF and place it more south into the northern MSP metro for Tornadoes on another note: If we had a Tropical System making landfall..even a mid strength CAT 1 hurricane..this set up as the potential to do just as much damage (perhaps more if the tornado potential happens) , there would be non-stop reporting from the media.. l often roll my eyes with all the hype of a tropical storm and point people towards derechos It's is not very populated in the MOD risk area, but there are people on vacations in trailers and cabins around the lakes 15z HRRR still favors the area Between MSP and Duluth it seems