janetjanet998

hopefully that blob and precip will help disrupt it

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SPECIFICALLY SOUTHERN VERNON COUNTY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 700... VALID 161733Z - 161800Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 700 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA, A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY INTENSE TORNADO WITH POTENTIAL PEAK WINDS OF 110 TO 155 MPH (EF1-EF3) IS LIKELY ONGOING. DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR SIGNATURES FROM KPOE AND KLCH AS OF 17:31Z REVEAL AN INTENSE SUPERCELL CHARACTERIZED BY A 0.5-0.9 DEGREE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY BETWEEN 61 AND 70 KT. A TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED ON RECENT RADAR SCANS. THESE SIGNATURES ARE OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STP BETWEEN 4 AND 5. PREVIOUS SIGNATURES WITHIN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTS PRODUCED TORNADO-DAMAGE-ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS FROM 110 TO 155 MPH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR LIKELY STRONG TO POTENTIALLY INTENSE TORNADO. A TORNADO IS ONGOING AND MAY CONTINUE BASED ON THE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY CONTINUITY AND THE STORM MOVING WITHIN A FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT.

STILL PDS in MS EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1133 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 MSC021-149-161800- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0095.000000T0000Z-191216T1800Z/ WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS- 1133 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTIES... AT 1132 AM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR YOKENA, OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF VICKSBURG, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

MS storm still PDS SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1125 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 MSC021-149-161800- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0095.000000T0000Z-191216T1800Z/ WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS- 1125 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTIES... AT 1124 AM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR YOKENA, OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF VICKSBURG, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 700... VALID 161724Z - 161900Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 700 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL LA. DISCUSSION...RECENT VAD DATA FROM KPOE AND KLCH CONTINUES TO SHOW LONG HODOGRAPHS (I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT) AND VERTICALLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE SOUTH. RECENT MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SMALL AREA OF 45 KT 850-MB WINDS OVER CENTRAL LA, MATCHING EXPECTATIONS BASED ON PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WELL, WITH MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING 2000 J/KG MLCAPE NOW STRETCHING INTO SOUTHWEST LA AND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE OVERLAP BETWEEN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT, A CORRIDOR OF INCREASED TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL LA. ADDITIONALLY, STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OF THIS AREA. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

looks like a debris ball appears just after it moved on the town

SC021-149-161800- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0095.000000T0000Z-191216T1800Z/ WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS- 1116 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTIES... AT 1115 AM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT GIBSON, OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VICKSBURG, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 700 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LOUISIANA WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FAR EASTERN TEXAS COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL 600 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH THE PEAK TORNADO RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST LA TO CENTRAL MS... ..SUMMARY NUMEROUS TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE PEAK TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING, CENTERED ON NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ..LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH PRIMARY CHANGES THIS OUTLOOK ARE TO INCREASE TORNADO AND WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS. IN ADDITION, THE SLGT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTH FOR WIND INTO MIDDLE TN NEAR THE EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK. GRADUAL EXPANSION OF SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SABINE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS, ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND MS/AL REGIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, BUT WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL IN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA ACROSS CENTRAL MS WHERE SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE, AND SHOULD ACCESS THE MOST FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE. DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MOST COMMON CONVECTIVE EVENT AREA-WIDE. SEVERE HAIL IS MOST PROBABLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA, ESSENTIALLY COLLOCATED WITH GREATEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES. 12Z SOUNDINGS SAMPLED THE PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERLYING THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME (CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS) EMANATING NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR, BUT MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL PERSIST IN THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS LA THROUGH PARTS OF MS. RELATIVELY BACKED SURFACE WINDS, BENEATH A 40-60-KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AND 300+ EFFECTIVE SRH. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WARM-SECTOR SUPERCELLS, SUCH AS PROGGED BY THE HRRR, HRRR-P AND WRF-ARW, SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR MULTIPLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. OTHERWISE, REGARDLESS OF WARM-SECTOR CONVECTIVE DENSITY, A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE FRONT AND SHIFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OFFER A RISK FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES. IT WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LESS INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WITH NORTHEAST/EASTERN EXTENT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT LESSER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES TONIGHT. ..GRAMS/WENDT.. 12/16/2019

Northwoods Mall is off to the right of that picture across the road..Lowpoint is about 15 miles NE of Peoria 0315 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW PEORIA 40.79N 89.66W 09/27/2019 M5.25 INCH PEORIA IL PUBLIC NEAR NORTHWOODS MALL 0415 PM HEAVY RAIN LOW POINT 40.88N 89.32W 09/27/2019 M7.82 INCH WOODFORD IL BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED VIA WEEK-TV

you can tell on the Visible there may be some sort of inversion layer in the "warm"sector...so storms may be elevated .and its late september now....so peak heating over also 5+ inches here in north side of the city so far today

yikes now just NE of town though?

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 922 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 ILC021-130245- /O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-190813T0245Z/ CHRISTIAN- 922 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY... AT 921 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STONINGTON, OR NORTHEAST OF TAYLORVILLE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 914 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 ILC021-130245- /O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-190813T0245Z/ CHRISTIAN- 914 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY... AT 914 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EDINBURG, OR 7 MILES NORTH OF TAYLORVILLE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 575 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 825 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WESTERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA EXTREME EASTERN MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM UNTIL 300 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY FOCUS BAND OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER CENTRAL IL, ALONG WITH ISOLATED, POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF STL, ALL MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WATCH AREA, WITH ALL SEVERE TYPES POSSIBLE.

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 814 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN MENARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT. * AT 814 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ASHLAND, OR NEAR VIRGINIA, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

LOT mentions convection is elevated AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 713 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 713 PM CDT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT SINCE EARLIER. WE STILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LA SALLE-PERU TO KANKAKEE TO RENSSELAER. NORTH OF THERE, FOR ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH IS A GIVEN WITH ANY DEEPER SHOWERS TONIGHT. DETAILS HAVE BECOME MORE CLEARER WITH THE GENERAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR TONIGHT, BUT CERTAINLY STILL SOME FUZZINESS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A A 1007 MB LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST IOWA BORDER WITH MISSOURI. AN ATTENDANT SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT IS DRAPED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, TO JUST SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON- NORMAL. TO THE NORTH OF THERE, SOME REINFORCEMENT FROM A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE LAKE-ENHANCED, IS INCHING SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES IS AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALTHOUGH WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS AND STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ALOFT DUE TO 45-50 KT 700-500 MB FLOW AND VEERING PROFILES FROM 1-4 KM. ISOLATED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THIS QUASI-WARM FRONTAL ZONE HAS BEEN SUPERCELLULAR PER RADAR AND SPOTTER PHOTOS, BUT ALMOST ENTIRELY ELEVATED WITH ROTATION ABOVE 1 KM. THIS HAS BEEN NON-SUSTAINING AND THAT IS LIKELY DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED EFFECTIVE PROFILES. SOME DEEPER, LOWER ROOTED CONVECTION HAD RECENTLY DONE A LITTLE BETTER SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON NEAR THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. AS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI APPROACHES, WARM ADVECTION ALOFT STRENGTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH 25 KT 850 MB FLOW ON RECENT ILX VWP DATA. ACROSS WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-88), THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS THROUGH 9-10 P.M. THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT IN THE AREA THUS FAR OWING TO THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS (PWATS 1.9-2.1 INCHES) BUT SHOULD SEE SOME IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AT LEAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SIGNAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA HAS BEEN LESS IN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND CONVECTIVE ALLOW MODEL SOLUTIONS, SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY, SOME OF WHICH CERTAINLY STILL COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 40 KT. THE ZONE OF EFFECTIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY NARROW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, MAYBE BY ABOUT 30 MILES OR SO, AND AT LEAST RIGHT NOW LIKELY ONLY INCLUDES PARTS OF LIVINGSTON AND FORD COUNTIES FOR WHAT WOULD BE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL IF MATURE CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AND TRACK OVER THAT AREA. THE LIGHTER SURFACE WIND FIELD THOUGH IS A PROBLEM FOR THAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY THOUGH AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. AS FOR HEAVY RAIN, THERE HAS BEEN TROPICAL-LIKE RAINFALL RATES IN ACTIVITY THUS FAR, AGAIN APART FROM ANY LIGHTNING. RAINFALL RATES TO ONE INCH PER HOUR HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH 35 DBZ ECHOES. IN THE CENTRAL CWA, WHERE THERE IS BOTH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHING AGAINST THIS FROM THE SOUTH, IS THE CORRIDOR WHERE THERE CAN BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. GIVEN THOUGH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TIME WINDOW OF THIS, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL LOOKS SLIGHT/LOCALIZED. MTF

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..01Z UPDATE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF EARLY-DAY REMNANT MCS. 13/00Z SOUNDING FROM DVN SUPPORTS THIS DELAYED DEVELOPMENT WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND SEASONALLY WEAK BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, ILX EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL MUCAPE WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO SCATTERED UPDRAFTS HAVE GRADUALLY DEEPENED ACROSS CENTRAL IL SUCH THAT LIGHTNING IS NOW OBSERVED ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ADAMS COUNTY TO MACON COUNTY. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE, SHIFTING EAST TOWARD CENTRAL IN WITHIN BROAD WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. HAVE LOWERED SEVERE PROBS ACROSS MUCH OF IA AND NORTHERN IL TO REFLECT A MORE NARROW CORRIDOR OF EXPECTED SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH SOUTH OF MOT. THIS STORM HAS EVOLVED ALONG PROGRESSIVE FRONT AND SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR PRIMARILY HAIL.

The meso came out 3 hours ago and said watch Likely by 23z if not sooner .. it’s almost 00z. Another clue of a problem

Puffy cumulus to my east ... devlopment looks like it’s slightly elevated visually sharper higher CU to my West into the sun

I could tell visually around 4 there was an inversion .... and the CU was shallow

So far not much .. I think there is an inversion layer and the cloud cover helped to keep Instability down

There have been and still are shallow stratocumulus all around. Also mid level flow has indeed weakened to 45 kts from 60