janetjanet998

decent couplet on western AR...but that line may over take it in an HR or so

That complex is zapping the moisture transport 00z HRRR to far north with max amounts as the complex moves ENE and not NE,,same for 18z NAM

TOR probs lowered to 10% and also hatched gone on 01z outlook

several couplets now over SE Ok area within those discrete cells ...the question is will the soon to be surging line eat them fast?

MO SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 555 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020 MOC077-225-110015- /O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-200111T0015Z/ WEBSTER MO-GREENE MO- 555 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER AND NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES... AT 554 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIR GROVE, OR NEAR STRAFFORD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED A TORNADO AT HWY 125 AND HWY OO

little spin up moving into Tarrant county?? edit: TOR warned

TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN KAUFMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS... EAST CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTH CENTRAL NAVARRO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 515 PM CST. * AT 423 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CORSICANA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. and a cell SW of Metroplex THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOMERVELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN ERATH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN BOSQUE COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 515 PM CST. * AT 424 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HICO, OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAMILTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

mini SUPS in the WAA may be trying to form and may move over the extreme eastern part of the metroplex (Kaufman county) and points east storms to the SW seem to be trying to merge into lines...but may still be semi discrete for a bit as they move into the Metro plex in any event prepare for the radar hole tracking between Dallas and SHV

PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL ADAIR AND EASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES... AT 253 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHEROKEE LANDING STATE PARK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

Fayetteville, Arkansas Metro could be under the gun

CON.KSGF.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200110T2100Z/ POLK MO- 241 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY... AT 240 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIR PLAY, OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOLIVAR, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

about 45 min ago 147 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SW EL DORADO SPRINGS 37.83N 94.09W 01/10/2020 VERNON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED IN THIS AREA. LE REPORTS HOUSES DAMAGED BY POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME BASED ON RADAR.

18Z NAM nest pretty blah on overnight discrete development

18Z HRRR continues to develop many discrete storms ahead of a line. and races that across AR and N LA area..from 03z to 09z almost too many

most storms so far have that "grungy" look not rooted at the surface ....as SPC noted this is likely the result a inversion the showers that keep redeveloping in streaks and moving over the metroplex may help this continue for a bit

some clearing over NE OK. SW MO.. RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL 600 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF TORNADOES AS THE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.

if that band gets hung up over IND the next 36 hours the crest on the Wabash may be interesting..03z RAP hinting

SE KS/ NE OK/SW MO with first wave around midday for starters?

If only the 18z GFS was real the next 2 weeks 45-50 inches, alot of it higher ratio fluff.. ORD, MKE, MSN

I am also under both a Flood watch and winter storm watch Only has a happened a few times that I recall...and i think we usually don't get much of either because... Heavy rain falls southeast because of warm front hang ups or moisture robbing Heavy snows go northwest ..as we get the dry slot

I assume that max precip band is more NW on the Euro vs the GFS? as in directly over me instead of me being on the NW edge?

for the River level forecasts: Do you happen to know if they used 48 hour rainfall (12z today thru 12z Sat) or used the full 3 days on the WPC forecast (another inch or so after 12z Sat) it is obviously not just the next 24 hours like it says in the wording Have family members that get isolated when the river hits 25.8 at PIA crest 23.4 just issued right now it looks like the SE part of the IL river basin gets 4 inches(with that much also falling south of the basin.. the rest 1-3... of course a shift in the heavy band will affect the levels i think it will shift south

but most of the ice falls in a rather short time...heavy rates..a lot won't freeze and just run off The huge Oklahoma to MO/AR ice storms are usually consistent light to moderate overrunning events that sometime last 2 days..but on the flip side usually with light winds

the start of a 2020 redux? Both the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have huge amounts 8+ inches over TN over the next 360 hours..GFS 14 in a dumping the next 2 days..a decent break but then very active and soil moisture is currently already high (70-80 percentile)