janetjanet998

ILX did indeed issue a late advisory (along with DVN)for Canton, Galesburg and points south .. PIA airport from the first wave per climate data : .1 late WED, 1.5 thru 4pm Thursday so total 1.6 first wave final report for Thursday 3.2 . so another 1.6 up to midnight yesterday from wave 2 Event total so far 3.3 . as of midnight but per hourly obs... another .2 inches of precip falling 12-3am ...so more after that

23HRRR 2-4 inch band from Dekalb to SPI

IDOT cams showing decent snow over western IL including SPI and Jacksonville ...some roads slushy again just started here ...decent sized flakes dynamic cooling killing it ILX and SW parts of LOT areas going to a surprise..may need a quick advisory

18z GFS has a bulls eye of 1.4 inches of precip over IKK..alot of it coming tomorrow night..all liquid basically

nice slug of precip moving north near STL..may get a quick 1-3 this evening on the NW fringe

I have no idea ....it will be a NOWCAST situation...but never underestimate dynamic/convective cooling and a deformation zone later if it stays all snow many people are going to be surprised

Nice burst here now..big flakes under the heavier returns going to be some "uneven" storm reports totals I think ....depending on how often one clears the snowboard to measure before it melts or compacts (every 6 hrs for some longer for others)

Temps so marginal and such a waste of precip (about an inch ) ..if only it was January.....................

Nice deformation band stall over IL on the NAM

but it has frozen precip on the outer edge of the precip shield ..odd

per GFS over IA 33 and rain...for 2 days

slow? edit: accidentally deleted previous post

back to back to back....3 days in a row ...minor systems for IA, MN AND WI...the first now,,, with an interesting weak LES band moving into MKE from the southeast Northwest WI and central and northern MN has deep snowpack and will be adding to it this week....water equivalent too for possible MS river flooding problems later

yep..after next weekend ...nothing...18z GFS continues to show a system over the northern Gulf and then rides up the east coast... but not really huge amounts of cold air dumping in behind it...no clippers..a north wind for days over the Gulf eats out all of the moisture..will take days of a south wind to recover....IF another SW flow sets up later in the month

at 12z friday GFS has 1024 mb pressure in SW SD..Euro has 999mb low there (GFS 1001 mb low in SE CO) yet both end up with a low to mid 990's low over SE MI area at 12z Sat....with Euro being a tad weaker and more NW

High water, near record levels, aren't helping....a far cry from record low levels in 2013ish

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 12...13... VALID 111750Z - 111915Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 12, 13 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERN INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME OF THE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG. DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE HAS RECENTLY CONSOLIDATED AND STRENGTHENED OVER WESTERN AL AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEASTWARD-EJECTING UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE ALSO RECENTLY OCCURRED WITHIN THE LINE. ONE SUCH ROTATIONAL VELOCITY SIGNATURE EARLIER PRODUCED A TDS OVER PICKENS COUNTY AL. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL, WITH THE VWP FROM KBMX SHOWING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHENING TO OVER 60 KT IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER. SOME CURVATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 450-650+ M2/S2 GIVEN THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. COUPLED WITH A GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL, THIS VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO CONTINUED DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND TORNADIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. EVEN WITH A MAINLY LINEAR MODE, THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IN THE SHORT TERM MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AL GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

Last night in LA 2 confirmed fatalities from a EF2

what a disaster of a system forecast wise...will the public even take seriously the next event thanks to media and social media hype from this one 1) Snow totals busted..(deform band may save the day in a few places) 2) No widespread Massive ice 3) no 3-5 inches of rain up north 4) No overnight Tornado outbreak over the south from discrete cells ahead of the line (just spin ups within the line)

as of 2am "only" 1.47 inches at PIA. and 2.39 at BMI...and 1.99 at SPI impressive for JAN but not the widespread 3-5 in the models a couple of days ago

Yes but storm mode is still "grungy" as it has been most of the day once it starts that way it's hard to snap out of it..many outbreaks I have followed underachieved because of it 80kt kt LLJ later may have a surprise or two

PDS warning HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS... CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 845 PM CST. * AT 752 PM CST, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MIDWAY IN LOGAN COUNTY, OR 10 MILES EAST OF PARIS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS TORNADO IS HEADED DIRECTLY AT THE COMMUNITIES OF SCRANTON AND CLARKSVILLE...SEEK COVER IMMEDIATELY! THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!