janetjanet998

western IL cell BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 448 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT. * AT 448 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ROSEVILLE, OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF MONMOUTH, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

so far even the IA triple point spoke of cells is under performing..often these spokes of cells will produce early afternoon on.....but even the CU south of if is shallow 1 tornado so far in IA...maybe two,..about 15 min ago(video on twitter) CU trying to build along MS river south of the western IL convection..and little specs sometimes appear on radar but quickly fall apart

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 424 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020 ARC067-282145- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-200328T2145Z/ JACKSON AR- 424 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY... AT 423 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ALGOA, OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWPORT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. RADAR DETECTED A DEBRIS LOFTED TEN THOUSAND FEET IN THE AIR IN NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY NEAR BALCH.

between me and you may be a hot spot small cells trying to fire west of you along MS river moving NE

the is some late clearing NW of STL ..ahead of what appears to the a convergence line with some CU note: not talking about the spoke of CU over southern IA into N MO

a little late to the party ..20Z UPDATE HOWEVER, THERE IS CONCERN THAT INSTABILITY MAY NOT REACH LEVELS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER/ONGOING PRECIPITATION.

20Z JEFFERSON CITY FAIR 76 64 66 S22G35

yes they mixed out some...but seem a little higher towards the MS river... storms near MS river still struggling to organize It could be that there is too much shear and not enough instability?

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 69 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

triple point BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 224 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTH CENTRAL GUTHRIE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT. * AT 224 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

mini discrete cells developing north of SGF MO....and other CU building from that in an arc into SW IA main show may be starting

Looks like there was a bit of morning activity but not much found the old SAT data ....there were indeed clouds and some precip but basically only over me (PIA)

If I recall correctly on 4-19-1996 we had morning storms over IL and it didn't clear out here until around noon and higher dewpoints were delayed until mid-late afternoon when they surged north just ahead of the MS river pearls is that being used as any analog or is it too old?

winds may veer some under that dryslot and clear area in N MO...meanwhile more east.... skies may remain more party cloudy and winds remain backed more SE the result may be a convergence line with supercells HRRR picking up on this with supercells along the MS river 3-4pm

09z HRRR continues its trend of midday convection over iL with a minor lead wave or something this splits the threat into two 1) high instability but LLJ afternoon min over SE IL into IND (midday-mid afternoon action) 2) main spoke of supercells over IA but moving into less instability over IL because of #1 (late afternoon/early evening which was supposed to be the big bang) This is just a model but this happens often in real time compare warm sector Hel swaths from yesterday afternoon for N IL and compare to current runs and you can see what the trend is

The current OK stuff is the crapvection..the northern edge precip/clouds will be over IL by midday This may mess up instability for the main show after 21z with the best dynamics

HRRR still a high end event with what looks like two lines of convection.... 2nd over eastern/northeast IA at triple point and develops a spoke into central IL again after a first round

IL MAY not be in that bad of shape compared to some locations 488 new cases (19% increase)which is a drop from yesterday. ..yet almost 5000 more tests then then yesterday...(30% increase) also about a 10% positive rate..much lower then NY time will tell if this trend continues

the 12z HRRR is interesting to say the least

the nickel and dime winter..yet we are above average on snowfall to date on another note..I noticed the official snowfall observation location is now in a different spot for decades it was '2 miles SW' near the airport... last snow it was "8 miles NE" and when i typed in the coordinates it was Peoria Heights clock tower park

after the first wave this morning, latest RAP and HRRR have the training more south into AL..missing the TN valley

crest 33.88 at Oakdale 1) 42.30 ft on 03/23/1929 (2) 38.71 ft on 12/23/1990 (3) 38.70 ft on 05/28/1973 (4) 38.70 ft on 03/23/1991 (5) 34.20 ft on 12/30/1969 (6) 34.10 ft on 04/04/1977 (7) 33.00 ft on 02/13/1948

XCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1057 AM EST WED FEB 05 2020 DAY 1 VALID 16Z WED FEB 05 2020 - 12Z THU FEB 06 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TO EASTERN TENNESSEE... 1600 UTC UPDATE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS UPGRADED TO MODERATE OVER FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TO EASTERN TENNESSEE. THE 1200 UTC ARW AND NMMB TRENDED HEAVIER FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. STREAM FLOWS AS PER THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL ARE HIGH ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH HI RES CONSENSUS FOR 2-4"+ OF RAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD 1200 UTC THURSDAY. IN AREAS OF TRAINING...HOURLY TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+ POSSIBLE. MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0034 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1201 PM EST WED FEB 05 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MS...NORTHERN AL...SOUTH-CENTRAL & EASTERN TN...EXTREME NW GA... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 051700Z - 052230Z SUMMARY...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CURRENTLY TRAINING THROUGH SATURATED GROUNDS MAY POSE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS, IN ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING FLASH FLOODING RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW VA ACROSS CENTRAL TN INTO FAR NE MS, WHERE A WEAK SURFACE INFLECTION IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER E AR INTO W TN, WITHIN A SMALL WEDGE OF REDUCED UPPER-LEVEL FLOW/INCREASED DIFFLUENCE IN CENTRAL TN, SUPPORTS THIS WAVE LIFTING NORTH AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS E MS/AL AND GA. AS SUCH INCREASED FLUX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS ENHANCED SHOWERS FROM SE TN ACROSS N AL, SUPPORTING GREATER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASED CLOUD TOP COOLING NOTED IN GOES-E 10.3UM, WITH TOPS COOLING BELOW -65C ACROSS NW AL AND SE TN ATTM. LOW TO MID-60S TDS AND SOME WEAK FILTERED INSOLATION THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAS HELPED TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THIS AREA RECENTLY WITH MLCAPES NOSING ABOVE 500 J/KG INTO N AL WITH GRADIENT UP/OVER 1000 J/KG BUILDING FROM THE SW. THIS IS IN COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT ALSO INCREASED THETA-E AIR WITH TDS EVEN UP TO 70 ACROSS CENTRAL MS ATTM. CURRENTLY, THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS FROM NW AL INTO SE TN ARE CAPABLE OF 1-1.25"/HR RATES WITH ISOLATED RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MEAN STEERING FLOW SHOWS DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO SUPPORT TRAINING, ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH A SLOW NORTHWARD TREND/PROPAGATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIFTING NORTHWARD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE, PERHAPS LIMITING BEST/IDEAL TRAINING A BIT. STILL, GIVEN LAST 24HR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...LOWERED FFG VALUES AND SATURATED SOILS EXIST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED/NEARLY COMPLETE HYDROPHOBIC RUN-OFF OF THESE 1-2" TOTALS. AS SUCH, THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS N AL AND S-CENT/SE TN. STILL, REGARDLESS OF FLOODING WITH THESE CELLS, THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER SATURATE THE GROUNDS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. STRONGER HEIGHT-FALLS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER POSITIVE TILT FULL-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC TROF WILL SUPPORT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMIC ASCENT AND DPVA TO OVER-WASH THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER UPSTREAM/BACKBUILDING REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE INFLECTION IN N MS, WITH SOUTHWARD EXPANSION AFTER DARK. STILL, GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE WAVE, ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE/THETA-E FLUX...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG TOWARD 19Z, ALLOWING FOR STRONGER/BROADER CONVECTIVE CORES. THESE CORES WILL CROSS N MS/N AL INTO TN LATER THIS EVENING INCREASING THE PROBABILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE BEING COMPROMISED CURRENTLY (IF NOT EXCEEDED ALREADY BY 20Z)

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST WED FEB 05 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME WESTERN ALABAMA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 051628Z - 051800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION INITIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA, AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH. DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST AL TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN LA WHERE IT BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEAST TX. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE WESTERN PART OF THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LA. THIS IS MANIFESTED BY A RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT SOUTHWEST LA THROUGH EASTERN TX. THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO RESPOND AND BECOME COUPLED WITH THE EXIT UPPER JET REGION, AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50+ KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RAOB DATA FROM LAKE CHARLES ALREADY SHOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 2500 J/KG MUCAPE IN WARM SECTOR. STORMS SHOULD SOON BECOME SURFACE BASED AND ORGANIZE AS SUPERCELLS AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE LOW 70S F. THE STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO MS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS WILL SUPPORT 50+ KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 200-300 M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WITH LARGEST HODOGRAPHS EXPECTED EAST OF THE NORTHEAST MIGRATING SURFACE LOW.

looked out my window and thought i saw a white ghost i am being invaded by the 101st airborne division Huge flakes coming down ....parachutes..and lots of them