janetjanet998

Day 2.... .CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING IN TWO DISTINCT AREAS SATURDAY MORNING. ONE IS WITHIN REMNANT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET AND NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD, ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. AS IT DOES, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL. A SECOND CLUSTER MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHEAST TX. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE STORMS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME DISPLACED EAST OF THE BETTER WARM-AIR ADVECTION, WHICH WILL BE RESTRENGTHENING BACK WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TX. CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A TORNADO EXISTS WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS, BUT THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE STORMS TO STAY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ONE ADDITIONAL AREA OF AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO CENTRAL KS. GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERN EXTENT IN TO KS, BUT ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE IF STORMS MATERIALIZE. ..TX SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES, LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM, MOIST, AND BUOYANT AIR MASS ACROSS TX. AS IT DOES, RE-DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO THE BIG BEND/EDWARDS PLATEAU. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL COMING FROM LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL. QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH SEEMS PROBABLE, WITH THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND INTO EAST TX BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW, POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITHIN THE LINE (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK), AS WELL AS WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE IN THE WARM SECTOR. ..MOSIER.. 04/10/2020

ouch MI 205 new deaths with 1279 new cases IL 1465/ 68

Here is the model the WH likes to use https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america 60,000 deaths .....down from 120K the issue I see with it is that the slope may be too steep after the peak with decreasing deaths per day plus no deaths after June 15th and only 60 total June 1-14 you can see this error in Italy ...which served as some of the original data input for the model https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy Italy projection for 4-9 was 384 actual 570 (plus almost 4000 new cases...)

we could have a 1000 filtered SPC storm report day 12z Sunday to 12z Monday .....I have only seen that a few times, mostly from huge a derecho that starts in the midwest and surges into the southeast with lots of tree damage reports (helped by lots of trees in the SE ,don't have that in KS) but with convection ongoing over TX at 12z and continuing and more redeveloping ENE all the way to mid NC by 12z Monday it is possible... bonus reports anything that can develop NW of the main action over eastern OK into MO and AR behind the main stuff plus social media and better spotter network will add to any storms reports may then say 10-20 years ago

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2020 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ..SUMMARY AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED FROM LOUISIANA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG, LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE. ..SYNOPSIS THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS IT MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS, A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. VERY STRONG MASS RESPONSE WILL DRAW RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. ..EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST INGREDIENTS FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO COME TOGETHER SUNDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN 80-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET AND 50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ONGOING STORMS ACROSS EAST TX SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED AS THEY ENCOUNTER RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MORNING. AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HEATS AND DESTABILIZES, LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE OUT OF THE MORNING CONVECTION AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF MS/AL, WITH A CORRESPONDING RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A CORRESPONDING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK, GIVEN EXTREMELY STRONG WIND FIELDS. SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL LIKELY REACH PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z MONDAY. ..MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY DESTABILIZATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY IS MORE UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DISRUPTIVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS REGION AS WELL, WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK OF ALL HAZARDS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.

it will all of course depend on the warm front position but NAM wants TN to get some of the action too "SPC day" storm report map 12z SUN to 12z Monday will be interesting from east Texas to NC

Perhaps this could be the main thread for the entire event? even though it could include multiple sub forums . The SE forum has a thread going but their threads tend to be more in my back yard type stuff ( which is fine) and not general severe weather super thread tracking for starters DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT THU APR 09 2020 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF TX INTO THE LA GULF COAST... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..SYNOPSIS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO EJECT EASTWARD ON SATURDAY, AS A NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE EJECTING TROUGH TO TAKE ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. ..MUCH OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TX AT SOME POINT SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THIS PROCESS COULD BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE ALONG THE GULF COAST. WHILE SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY, BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT, AS STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH SPREAD OVER MUCH OF TX AMIDST CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ERUPT SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOME PORTION OF WEST/CENTRAL TX, WITH AN INITIAL HAIL THREAT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AS THEY ENCOUNTER GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH A CORRESPONDING THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT ALONG THE UPPER TX/LA GULF COAST PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH WOULD POSE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LATE TIMING OF THE HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL, 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS OUTLOOK, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER PROBABILITIES ONCE DETAILS REGARDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND THE EVOLUTION OF LATE-NIGHT CONVECTION COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. ..NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL KS MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TRANSPORTED INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TX ON FRIDAY WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO A LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON, MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL KS, AS DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ARE ADVECTED NORTHWARD BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE. WHILE MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY MODEST AT BEST ACROSS THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON, 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A CORRESPONDING HAIL RISK. ..DEAN/DIAL.. 04/09/2020 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 AM CDT THU APR 09 2020 VALID 121200Z - 171200Z ..SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SUN ..DISCUSSION AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND POSSIBLY INTO GEORGIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES (POTENTIALLY STRONG/LONG-TRACKED) AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ...D4/SUNDAY: TX GULF COAST EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... INGREDIENTS FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK APPEAR LIKELY TO COME TOGETHER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TO SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE TILT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INLAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN 80-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET AND 50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS AND A CORRESPONDING STRONG TORNADO RISK. VERY STRONG LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER, WITH THE GFS STILL A NOTABLY FAST OUTLIER. A 30% PROBABILITY CONTOUR HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FROM LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS/AL AND SOUTHWEST GA, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE OUTBREAK POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND/OR A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z MONDAY.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 516 PM CDT WED APR 8 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN MENARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN PIATT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... DE WITT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT. * AT 515 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARTSBURG, OR NEAR LINCOLN, MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

Yep, dew points really mixed out alright

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0310 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CDT WED APR 08 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTEAST IA...NORTHEAST MO...AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 081846Z - 082045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHEAST MO/WEST-CENTRAL IL. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA INTO MO/IL AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS IL, WHERE MORNING DEWPOINTS HAD BEEN IN THE MID 50S F, GENERALLY ARE NOW IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S F. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MO TOWARD SOUTHERN IL, DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S F WERE BEING MAINTAINED. ALOFT, A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS CONTINUED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY, WITH 18Z REGIONAL RAOBS SHOWING 8-9 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO IL HAS BEEN INCREASING, WHILE ADDITIONAL DEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL CU NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER CONTINUES. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY ACROSS SD/NE INTO SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN IA AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SEMI-DISCRETE, HIGHER-BASED SUPERCELLS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LONG, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH SPEED SHEAR INCREASING WITH HEIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES, LARGE HAIL (SOME GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER) IS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO ARE STEEP ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO AMPLE HEATING AND MIXING. THIS SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO ARE EXPECTED. AS FRONTAL FORCING INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING, AND THROUGH STORM OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING SEGMENTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL IL, FURTHER ENHANCING THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. GIVEN GENERALLY DRY LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN HIGHER-BASED STORMS, AT LEAST INITIALLY, THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MARGINAL. ..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 04/08/2020 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41029220 41159207 41289159 41359108 41259048 41128995 40938931 40628849 40138781 39788757 39568758 39328769 38838828 38358943 38019044 37879151 379492

HRRR, NAMnest drop my dewpoints from 56 now to around 40 by at 21z but then shots up to 56 again at 22z with the convection The areas around lake Michigan in IND stay in the mid/ upper 50's I assume from clouds/lake breeze and not mixing 12z NAM is a little more moist then 06z is the mixing out over IL overdone? will there be any correction as time goes on (like the NAM) if it is overdone? RAP the same and drops dewpoints into the 30's

Talk about dewpoint mixing over IL today but then a thin tongue of deeper moisture around the developing convection later

lead supercell NW of Ann Arbor may have best tornado potential any meso may go just west of the city

the lake may have prevented any tornado warnings so far(if the lake was land) as the original cells were trying to hook near WF but then fell apart over the stable midlake one cell has made it onto land and may be riding the WF ESE also note dewpoints seems be to be running about 2 degrees below what was modeled causing rather high LCLs over SW MI, this may improve slightly as we move past max heating th

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 072207Z - 072330Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81 MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WITH AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THROUGH 6-8 PM CDT DISCUSSION...RAPID NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY NEAR/NORTHEAST OF DUBUQUE IA. THIS IS OCCURRING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT, TRAILING AN EASTWARD MIGRATING SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR MILWAUKEE WI, AS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING WEAKENS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION. THIS MID-LEVEL COOLING IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 00-02Z, AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUING INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, STEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG, SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

MKE storms , all but one, weakened some over the lake

Kathy Griffin @kathygriffin · 32m Brutal. “The FDNY reports 241 New Yorkers dying at home Sunday — more than the number of confirmed #COVID19 deaths that occurred citywide that day. On Monday night, the city reported 266 new deaths, suggesting the possibility of a 40% undercount of #coronavirus-related deaths.”

looks like 1237 new cases in IL 73 new deaths

Last Tuesday also had a big spike after a decline/flat weekend .. 550ish to 900ish weekend backlog processed on Monday? Similar trend in Europe

Michigan with another bad day 1749 new cases 118 new deaths US daily death tally now at 1522 and counting

It will be interesting to see how the lake created lower level instability void will be a factor as storms develop over eastern WI How long will they take to become fully surfaced based again over MI

just like Italy and Spain

oh man ISDH: 11 dead from COVID-19 at Madison County nursing home https://www.wishtv.com/news/medical/isdh-11-dead-from-covid-19-at-madison-county-nursing-home/

The Illinois Department of Public Health announced Saturday there are 899 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 31 additional deaths.

although it was very obvious from the start for those paying attention China was lying....many casual observers likely thought it was just like SARS only a little worse...( I have been paying very close attention and started daily threads at another forum about this since late Jan) check out these numbers Last 3 days USA 88,631 cases 3329 deaths Last 3 months CHINA 81,639 cases 3326 deaths China has over 4 times the population of the USA