janetjanet998

looks like it weakened.... it was interesting to note how that storm and to lesser extent the one north sharpened up on reflectivity just before TOR warned ...it went from fuzzy looking to sharp on the backside , by sharp i mean the DBZ went from 50 to 10ish near the same pixels rather then a blob

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 951 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTH CENTRAL DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEASTERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... WEST CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 1015 AM CDT. * AT 951 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STONEWALL, OR 12 MILES NORTH OF MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

CC drop and spike in reflectivity https://twitter.com/WxJason/status/1249349200464183296/photo/1

both warnings radar confirmed EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 946 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC031-121500- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200412T1500Z/ DE SOTO LA- 946 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL DE SOTO PARISH... AT 945 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF STONEWALL, OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 937 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC031-121500- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200412T1500Z/ DE SOTO LA- 937 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL DE SOTO PARISH... AT 937 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOGANSPORT, OR 12 MILES WEST OF MANSFIELD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

1st of the day KETK NEWS @KETK · 2m A tornado has been CONFIRMED to be on the ground southeast of Marshall and heading towards Waskom

decent discussion in SE forum so lets just move there

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM THE ARK-LA-MISS EASTWARD INTO AL AND WESTERN GA... ..SUMMARY AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED FROM MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. STRONG TORNADOES, WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE. ..SYNOPSIS A COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY WITH MULTIPLE SCENARIOS POSSIBLE ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST. A MIDLEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE TX BIG BEND THIS MORNING WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE ARK-LA-MISS BY THIS EVENING AND THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS OK TODAY AND DEVELOP EASTWARD TO AR BY THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS LA/MS/AL/GA TODAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENING CYCLONE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE OVERALL OUTLOOK AREA, WITH SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO EARLY/ONGOING CONVECTION NOW IN TX. ..NORTHEAST TX TO NORTHERN MS/AL AND TN THIS AFTERNOON AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TX THIS MORNING, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLUSTER WHICH WILL INCLUDE A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TODAY ACROSS LA/MS/AL IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE MOVING FROM OK TO AR. THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL KEEP PACE WITH THE INITIAL CLUSTER. IF WARMING/MOISTENING CAN OCCUR QUICKLY ENOUGH, THE CHANCE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK WILL INCREASE. THIS MAY OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG), VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2) AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER LA/MS, AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN, THE MAIN QUESTIONS IN THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION OF THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION, AND ITS PHASING WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. ..MS/AL/GA/CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF THE INITIAL STORM CLUSTER CROSSING NORTHERN MS/AL/TN, A SEPARATE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN MS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL AL. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE WELL EAST THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT, IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. A BROKEN BAND WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY 09-12Z. ..RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT AN ARC OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST OK, AND WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET. THIS CONVECTION WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION IN AR/WESTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVING FROM LA INTO NORTHERN MS. STILL, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL WAVE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SIMILAR TO AR THIS AFTERNOON, THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT INTO TONIGHT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION IS ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF THAT CONVECTION.

HRRR tries to develop discrete cells off and on just ahead of that line complex is pretty far south and outflows are pushing more ENE then NE as modeled also cloud debris ahead of it may mess up heating

pretty amazing models had this convective system and mini low days ago at 12z Sunday and then moving across the south MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105... VALID 121218Z - 121345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 105 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES PROBABLY WILL INCREASE WITH AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO AND ACROSS THE SHREVEPORT LA AREA BY 9-10 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...THE EVOLUTION OF AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES. THIS STILL APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION, TO THE NORTH OF WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR, AND JUST AHEAD OF A 50-70 KT WESTERLY 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM PROPAGATING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CURRENTLY REMAINS COOLER AND DRIER DOWNSTREAM, ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX, INCREASES IN SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY APPEAR UNDERWAY, AND MORE SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL COMMENCE WITH DAYBREAK. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SEVERE GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECORDED BY ASOS AT WACO AND CORSICANA WITH THE PRIMARY ONGOING BOWING SEGMENT IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES, WHICH IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE SHREVEPORT LA BY 14-15Z. WITH THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING TO 40-50 KT ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE GIVEN BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION. COUPLED WITH A STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL, THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH INTENSIFYING MESOVORTICES ALONG THE GUST FRONT MAY ALSO INCREASE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 840 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 840 PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH LIKELY

00z HRRR interesting for SAT Hel swath wise LOL

was just about to post this this is the start of the show... ......models develop this into a complex and move it across the deep south but this is what could mess things up for tomorrow as I menioned edit:T-storm warned now

18Z Nam nest are now leaning towards this....the convection over TX moves over MS/AL and more crapvection develops just behind it the results is no deep surface based convection over MS/AL until after 03z and the storms are in a semi-line AR perhaps looks interesting late afternoon another scenario is that the TX storms and crapvection are more severe then models and there are two waves one mid-day and one late evening/overnight Nowcast of course will be key

The convection the models develop over TX tonight reminds me of the convection that developed over OK overnight two weeks ago that messed up the MOD risk for IL it will be moving into MS/AL near or just before peak heating like it did over IL two weeks ago while the atmosphere tries to recover behind it every outbreak is different though....time will tell

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 200 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WESTERN AND NORTHWEST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

WEST TX MESO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...PERMIAN BASIN/TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO FAR NORTHWEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 111747Z - 111945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...GOES-16 MESOSECTOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN NUMEROUS ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TX SOUTH PLAINS OVER THE PAST HOUR. A FEW OF THESE ATTEMPTS NOW APPEAR SUCCESSFUL, LIKELY AIDED BY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AUGMENTED BY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, LEADING TO MORE CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED 60 DEG F DEWPOINTS FROM SPS IN FAR NORTHWEST TX TO ABOUT 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAF IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE IS ALREADY AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG, WITH INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS INCREASING AS WELL, CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INITIALLY, BUT COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY ERODES FARTHER EAST. ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS WOULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES.

new day 2 SPC now talking about the potential crapvection in the warm sector DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2020 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA... ..SUMMARY AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED FROM LOUISIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG TORNADOES, POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE. ..SYNOPSIS THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING, AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS NEARLY ALL THE CONUS BY 12Z MONDAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH, A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MID-MS VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY, AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN INTENSE CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CYCLONE. ...EAST TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TN VALLEY... ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE OVER EAST TX AND POTENTIALLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE INTENSITY AND AREAL EXTENT OF ANY SUCH CLUSTERS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS THAT BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD, INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION, WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS, GIVEN RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, EVOLUTION INTO A QLCS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL POSITION, WHICH WILL BE MODULATED BY THE IMPACT OF OUTFLOW FROM ANY EARLY CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 70-100 KT AS A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES INTO THE 40-60 KT RANGE. THESE WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG) WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS. ANY SURFACE-BASED INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF A PSEUDO-DRYLINE MOVING INTO WESTERN LA BY LATE AFTERNOON COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION AND GENERALLY SUBTLE FOCI FOR INITIATION. WHILE THE CONDITIONAL RISK OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE QUITE HIGH IF SUPERCELLS DEVELOP, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE FROM THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW RELATED TO EARLY CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HIGHER-END TORNADO POTENTIAL, AND SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN A MIDLEVEL MOIST PLUME ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD EITHER DAMPEN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, OR EVOLVE INTO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO UPGRADE THE ONGOING OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. EVOLUTION INTO MORE OF QLCS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST GUIDANCE BY SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASING THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF AL INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO GROWS. ..TN VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY -- SUNDAY NIGHT SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER, RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO RISK BY SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD EVEN MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCUR, AS STRONG CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN TANDEM WITH THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. ... EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC... SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN GA INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A NONZERO RISK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING, WHICH WOULD POSE SOME RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND OR PERHAPS A TORNADO, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OR A QLCS AND MOVE INTO THIS REGION SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INTENSE WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES, GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL BE DETERMINED IN PART BY HOW FAST ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IF CONVECTION ACCELERATES AND ARRIVES FASTER THAT CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE, THEN THERE IS LESS TIME FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION, AND THE MAGNITUDE AND NORTHWARD-EXTENT OF THE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD, THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE. IF SOME OF THE SLOWER GUIDANCE TURNS OUT TO BE ACCURATE, THEN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION MAY NOT COME UNTIL THE D3/MONDAY PERIOD. PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN THIS AREA ONCE THE DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

Italy ..not good..being stubborn 619 new deaths and 4694 new cases the most in a week model had it at 281 deaths for today

HRRR has discrete cells over red river area and a little south 20z-04z then when that gets tamed the development SW of SAT

new day 1 10% TOR over NW texas and 10% hatched over SAT and areas SW DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2020 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z ..THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TX ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING. VERY LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ..SYNOPSIS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE AZ/SONORA BORDER WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT REACHES THE TX TRANS-PECOS AND NORTHEAST CHIHUAHUA BY EARLY MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LEE CYCLONE WILL INDUCE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AS THE REMNANT FRONT NEAR THE TX COAST ADVANCES NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. ..NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK TO THE ARK-LA-MISS ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX, IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE EXPANDING BUOYANCY PLUME, AS IT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION. FARTHER WEST, POCKETS OF GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WITHIN THE PLUME OF UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE SHOULD BE FROM LARGE HAIL, BUT A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ..SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU BETWEEN 03-06Z AS INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ENCOUNTER THE STRONG BUOYANCY ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF RATHER RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A COUPLE INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ROUGHLY FROM THE DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO VICINITY WHERE ALL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BROADER CLUSTER IS LIKELY INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX THROUGH EARLY MORNING. VERY LARGE HAIL, A FEW TORNADOES, AND A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK.

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2020 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX EASTWARD TO EAST CENTRAL TX... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AZ BORDER. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD TO WEST TX BY EARLY SUNDAY, IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN BC. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LEE CYCLONE WILL INDUCE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS THE REMNANT FRONT NEAR THE TX COAST RETREATS NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. ..NORTHWEST TX TODAY TO SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN MS OVERNIGHT THE INITIAL CONVECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 18Z ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TX, IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8 C/KM AND MUCAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER SOUTH IN TX WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MID AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS, AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON, SUGGESTING SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. THE WARM ADVECTION STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX, AND SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN MS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING A SEPARATE AREA OF POTENTIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A DEVELOPING DRYLINE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OK INTO CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE DRYLINE, COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT, WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL FROM ROUGHLY 22-02Z, WITH THE SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT. ..EDWARDS PLATEAU ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU BY ROUGHLY 06Z AS INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ENCOUNTER THE STRONG BUOYANCY ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY, BUT RATHER QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED, AND THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL TX ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH 12Z, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A COUPLE OF TORN ADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2020 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA...... ..SUMMARY AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED FROM LOUISIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG TORNADOES, POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE. ..SYNOPSIS THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING, AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS NEARLY ALL THE CONUS BY 12Z MONDAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH, A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MID-MS VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY, AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN INTENSE CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CYCLONE. ...EAST TX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TN VALLEY... ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE OVER EAST TX AND POTENTIALLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE INTENSITY AND AREAL EXTENT OF ANY SUCH CLUSTERS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS THAT BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD, INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION, WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS, GIVEN RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, EVOLUTION INTO A QLCS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A CORRESPONDING RISK OF DAMAGING WIND INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE, FURTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL POSITION, WHICH WILL BE MODULATED BY THE IMPACT OF OUTFLOW FROM ANY EARLY CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 70-100 KT AS A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES INTO THE 40-60 KT RANGE. THESE WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG) WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS. ANY SURFACE-BASED INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF A PSEUDO-DRYLINE MOVING INTO WESTERN LA BY LATE AFTERNOON COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION AND GENERALLY SUBTLE FOCI FOR INITIATION. WHILE THE CONDITIONAL RISK OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE QUITE HIGH IF SUPERCELLS DEVELOP, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE FROM THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW RELATED TO EARLY CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HIGHER-END TORNADO POTENTIAL, AND SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN A MIDLEVEL MOIST PLUME ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD EITHER DAMPEN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, OR EVOLVE INTO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO UPGRADE THE ONGOING OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. EVOLUTION INTO MORE OF QLCS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST GUIDANCE BY SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASING THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF AL INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO GROWS. ..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU WHILE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY LIMIT TRANSPORT OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS/OZARKS, MORE MODEST MOISTURE THAT WAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. WIND PROFILES WILL LIKELY NOT FAVOR CLASSIC SUPERCELLS, WITH SOME BACKING OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED, BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH SOME WIND POTENTIAL IF ANY UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS. WIND PROFILES WILL NOT GENERALLY FAVOR TORNADO POTENTIAL, THOUGH ROBUST UPDRAFTS INTERACTING WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED VORTICITY NEAR THE SURFACE CYCLONE COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO. ..TN VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY -- SUNDAY NIGHT SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER, RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO RISK BY SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD EVEN MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCUR, AS STRONG CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN TANDEM WITH THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. .. EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN GA INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A NONZERO RISK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING, WHICH WOULD POSE SOME RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND OR PERHAPS A TORNADO, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OR A QLCS AND MOVE INTO THIS REGION SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INTENSE WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES, GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL BE DETERMINED IN PART BY HOW FAST ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IF CONVECTION ACCELERATES AND ARRIVES FASTER THAT CURRENT GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE, THEN THERE IS LESS TIME FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION, AND THE MAGNITUDE AND NORTHWARD-EXTENT OF THE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD, THEN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE. IF SOME OF THE SLOWER GUIDANCE TURNS OUT TO BE ACCURATE, THEN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION MAY NOT COME UNTIL THE D3/MONDAY PERIOD. PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN THIS AREA ONCE THE DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. ..DEAN/BROYLES.. 04/11/2020

just saw this Cook county Jail is the nations "hotspot" with 448 cases, with Statesville #7 https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1248738712323751942/photo/1

new update in corrected some what the errors I talked about , peak too high but slope after peak decline too steep added about 1400 more deaths 61,545 but Italy update slope will be way way off still https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy