janetjanet998

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 251 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHWESTERN NOXUBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHERN OKTIBBEHA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI... NORTHERN WINSTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 345 PM CDT. * AT 250 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ACKERMAN, OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

mini patches of clear now surround some of those cells, an hour ago stratus did which is a clue of elevated over an inversion.. so maybe the inversion is eroding some now the question might be is there too many of them

Birmingham metro could be in trouble the triple point of that meso low might be just NW of them or at least they will have the WF near them with bscked winds as well as the unstable air

145 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 121845Z - 122015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CURRENTLY OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL SHIFT EAST INTO ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON. DISCUSSION...A MCS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND PRODUCED NUMEROUS TDS SIGNATURES. THIS SAME CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS PRODUCED A TDS MORE RECENTLY (~1830Z) IN WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS SAME LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA HAS DESTABILIZED ACROSS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND CONTINUED MOISTENING/WARMING IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THEREFORE, THIS ONGOING MCS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AND LIKELY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO ALABAMA. A 997MB MESO-LOW HAS FORMED IN SOUTHEAST AR/WESTERN MS. THIS HAS ACTED TO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS. THIS HAS LED TO VERY LARGE 0-1 SRH VALUES NEAR 700 M2/S2 PER GWX VWP. DAMAGING WINDS AND QLCS TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH THIS MCS AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF THIS OCCURS, A SIGNIFICANT, THREAT WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH IN MISSISSIPPI.

new watch S LA into S RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 125 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOUISIANA SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR ALL HAZARDS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. MS

don forget about the areas more west clearing out nicely ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 121810Z - 121945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF A MORNING MCS. MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 750 TO 1250 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE STORM COVERAGE QUICKLY EXPANDS IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STORM INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT MUTED DUE TO AIRMASS CONTAMINATION FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION, BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MAY BE THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW STORMS, BUT THE FAST SPEED MAY CUT OFF UPDRAFTS FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS BEFORE THEY CAN BECOME BETTER ROOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, THE BETTER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WITH STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS HAVE STARTED TO FORM IN THIS AREA AND SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CINH IS MOSTLY ERODED INDICATING STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IMMINENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL TURNING IN THE TLX VWP, BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE WEAK (LESS THAN 20 KTS) WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE THAN A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35-40 KNOTS AFTER 22Z IN SOUTHEAST OK/NE TX WHICH MAY LEAD TO A GREATER TORNADO THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING IN THAT REGION. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED, BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF STORM INTENSITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH, ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA/MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 121802Z - 122000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES, MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS. ALTHOUGH THIS REGION IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE BEST MID-LEVEL FORCING, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DOES RESIDE OVER THIS AREA PER RECENT VWP ESTIMATES FROM KLIX. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN LA, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVING WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. RESULTANT MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR IF ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED. A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 300-350 M2/S2. AT THIS POINT, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND THE PRESENCE OF A MODEST LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THEN A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1242 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC035-MSC055-125-121815- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200412T1815Z/ EAST CARROLL LA-ISSAQUENA MS-SHARKEY MS- 1242 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR EAST CARROLL PARISH...ISSAQUENA AND SHARKEY COUNTIES... AT 1241 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TRANSYLVANIA, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

somewhat discrete cells forming from those one mentioned before near JAN SSW to the gulf coast may be a convergent line where SSE wind meet SSW this MAY be what models where picking up yesterday and the question was will it crapvection or not

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1216 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CARROLL PARISH IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ISSAQUENA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... SHARKEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 115 PM CDT. * AT 1216 PM CDT, TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR OAK GROVE TO NEAR DARNELL TO NEAR DELHI, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1209 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC067-083-123-121745- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200412T1745Z/ MOREHOUSE LA-RICHLAND LA-WEST CARROLL LA- 1209 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOREHOUSE...NORTHERN RICHLAND AND WEST CARROLL PARISHES... AT 1208 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GOODWILL, OR 13 MILES NORTH OF RAYVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1155 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC073-121715- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200412T1715Z/ OUACHITA LA- 1155 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN OUACHITA PARISH... AT 1154 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SWARTZ, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

TE VERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1144 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC073-121715- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200412T1715Z/ OUACHITA LA- 1144 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MONROE LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST OUACHITA PARISH... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN OUACHITA PARISH... AT 1142 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MONROE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MONROE AND NORTHEAST OUACHITA PARISH! THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

LLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1142 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN OUACHITA PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... * UNTIL NOON CDT. * AT 1141 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER STERLINGTON, OR NEAR SWARTZ, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

AC073-121715- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200412T1715Z/ OUACHITA LA- 1139 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CDT FOR EASTERN OUACHITA PARISH... AT 1138 AM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WEST MONROE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

then reloads for AL again late evening

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1056 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN UNION PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... SOUTH CENTRAL CLAIBORNE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... NORTHEASTERN BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... CENTRAL LINCOLN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 1130 AM CDT. * AT 1055 AM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARCADIA, OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAMBLING, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1047 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 LAC013-027-061-121600- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200412T1600Z/ CLAIBORNE LA-BIENVILLE LA-LINCOLN LA- 1047 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE...NORTH CENTRAL BIENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN PARISHES... AT 1046 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ARCADIA, OR 13 MILES WEST OF GRAMBLING, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...INTENSE BOWING LINE WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERAL TORNADOES IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SEMI-DISCRETE SUPRECELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERAL TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE STRONG IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

looks like another small TDS just north of ashland

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS...AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 121524Z - 121700Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG TORNADOES, NUMEROUS DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ALL LIKELY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND NORTHEASTERN LA SHORTLY. DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LA INTO CENTRAL MS DOWNSTREAM OF A QLCS IN NORTHERN LA IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING. A WARM ADVECTION WING OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THIS AREA AS A MARINE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE OCCURS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING, MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. VERY STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT FROM LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT ROBUST STORM ORGANIZATION BOTH WITH THE ONGOING QLCS AND WITH ANY CELLS THAT CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE OPEN WARM SECTOR. LATEST VWP FROM KDGX (JACKSON, MS) SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE, WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 50 KT, AND 0-1 SRH AROUND 500 M2/S2. STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, ALONG WITH NUMEROUS DAMAGING WINDS IF THE STORM MODE REMAINS MOSTLY LINEAR. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANY STORMS CAN FORM FARTHER SOUTH/EAST OF THE ONGOING QLCS, THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.