janetjanet998

it was very impressive but keep in mind it had several things to help confirm all the tornadoes then other outbreaks in the past didn't have: 1) it didn't occur in the plains with lower population , it would be hard to confirm all the tornadoes in rural areas in wheat fields 2) better spotter and chaser network these days 3) and of course modern radar with TDS signatures to help pinpoint any quick spin up qlcs tornadoes While studying local tornado climatology for my area...I noticed Sangamon county had an anomaly one summer day in the late 1970's, with something like 14 tornadoes in one day. It wasn't until years later I found out why. Dr Ted Fujita did a study that day on what turned out to be qlcs tornadoes and gustnadoes evident in corn fields(F0s and F1s)....that is why the stats were "padded" that day. The above detailed study would be the 1970's equivalent of modern storm surveys backed up with modern radar Regardless , these were some of the most intense and usually qlcs tornadoes I have seen

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2020 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ..SUMMARY SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM LOUISIANA TO GEORGIA, WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED INCLUDING TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY AS WELL. ..SYNOPSIS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 60-70 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY, AND WILL REACH THE EAST COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. PRECEDING THIS TROUGH, A BROAD AREA OF 50 KT MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, MID-TO-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE NORTH BEHIND A WARM FRONT, LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHERN AR TO CENTRAL MS, AL AND GA BY 18-21Z. MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS TX, WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ARKLAMISS BY 00Z. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES, SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT DURING THE DAY, AND OVER 50 KT AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..EAST TX TO GA AND SC EARLY DAY STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER NORTHERN MS AND AL RELATED TO WARM ADVECTION. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A HAIL THREAT INITIALLY. WITH TIME, THESE STORMS MAY TRANSITION TO SURFACE BASED, WITH AN EVOLVING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR TORNADOES FROM AL INTO GA COINCIDENT WITH A 300+ M2/S2 ESRH MAX. TO THE WEST, OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY TO MIDDAY OVER EASTERN TX, BUT STORM MODE IS UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE INCREASING LIFT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z ACROSS LA AND MS, AN MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, SUPERCELLS, POSSIBLY TORNADIC, MAY FORM AHEAD OF ANY MCS OVER LA AND MS. THE GENERAL MODEL TREND IS FOR UPSCALE GROWTH, AND THIS COULD BE A COMBINATION OF STORM MODES. AT ANY RATE, TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND, AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

Just like last event, some models are picking up on a meso low SE of the main low days in advance... and the new GFS just in shows yet another one of these next Weds afternoon/night across the deep south... In addition to any discrete supercells, likely more embedded fast moving spin ups in a complex at night which can really pad the tornado count 106 confirmed from the last event so far edit: per GFS, and yet another one next weekend ..has another tiny meso low ..

overnight event deep south DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 AM CDT THU APR 16 2020 VALID 191200Z - 241200Z ..DISCUSSION MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY FROM TX SUNDAY/D4 MORNING TO GA BY 12Z MONDAY/D5. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE RED RIVER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE LOW, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES, WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS LIKELY INTO CENTRAL MS, AL, AND GA, WITH LOW 70S F ALONG THE COAST. MUCAPE TO AT LEAST 2000 J/KG IS LIKELY BY 18Z FROM TX INTO AL, WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -10 TO -12 C. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM RELATIVELY EARLY OVER EAST TX, WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY, WITH AN EVENTUAL MCS LIKELY. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. MEANWHILE TO THE EAST, WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WELL AHEAD OF THE MCS ACROSS MS, AL, GA, PRODUCING A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG WITH HAIL. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK IN TERMS OF COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE AN MCS TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT QUICKLY MOVES ALONG THE EAST-WEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS LA, MS, AL AND INTO GA. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS PRESENT IN THE MODELS, SUPPORTING THE NOTION OF A WELL-DEFINED MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE SRH WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG INITIALLY, IT SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 00Z, WITH ENHANCED WIND AND/OR TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE CORRIDOR OF MAXIMUM THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. FOR D5/MONDAY, THERE MAY BE A SMALL AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER FAR EASTERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES, THEREFORE PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WILL PRECLUDE AN AREA.

Severe weather possible again this Sunday 12 Euro most aggressive with a 1004 low in NW Texas at 12z and 995 mb in SC/GA at 12z Monday another event possible mid next week (gfs, CMC) as more southern jet energy moving in

check out the cloud plumes coming off the lakes in Eastern WI and even 2 areas on the MS river where it aligns with the wind

so.................... how soon is too soon for someone to start a thread about this weekends potential

mini-sups seem to be developing over South central PA SE of that line and north of the other one in MD

mini-sups seem to be developing over South central PA SE of that line and north of the other one in MD

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1207 PM EDT MON APR 13 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE CITY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... NORTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... SOUTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 1230 PM EDT. * AT 1207 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COLUMBIA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO.

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND NEW JERSEY CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1130 AM UNTIL 600 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY AND A COUPLE TORNADIC STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1006 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CENTRAL CRAVEN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHEASTERN ONSLOW COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHEASTERN BEAUFORT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHERN PAMLICO COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1045 AM EDT. * AT 1005 AM EDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MAYSVILLE, OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAMES CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

CC049-103-133-131415- /O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200413T1415Z/ JONES NC-CRAVEN NC-ONSLOW NC- 945 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN JONES...SOUTH CENTRAL CRAVEN AND CENTRAL ONSLOW COUNTIES... AT 944 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER JACKSONVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 932 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 NCC019-129-131345- /O.CON.KILM.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200413T1345Z/ NEW HANOVER NC-BRUNSWICK NC- 932 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM EDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW HANOVER AND SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES... AT 932 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR ST. JAMES, OR NEAR OAK ISLAND, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT MOVING ONSHORE.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 927 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 NCC141-131345- /O.CON.KILM.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-200413T1345Z/ PENDER NC- 927 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM EDT FOR CENTRAL PENDER COUNTY... AT 925 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITE STOCKING, OR NEAR BURGAW, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 921 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 945 AM EDT. * AT 921 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE NEAR HOLDEN BEACH, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT MOVING ONSHORE. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 901 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0620 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 ESE LENA 32.74N 81.15W 04/13/2020 HAMPTON SC EMERGENCY MNGR *** 3 FATAL *** HAMPTON COUNTY EMA REPORTED 3 FATALITIES DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE IN NIXVILLE. THIS DAMAGE AND RESULTING FATALITIES WERE LIKELY DUE TO A TORNADO.

At 9:02 AM EDT, Murrells Inlet [Amz256 Co, SC] WEATHERFLOW reports TORNADO. PRELIMINARY - WEATHERFLOW STATION AT MURRELL'S INLET REGISTERED 114 MPH WIND GUST AT 8:47 AM

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 828 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 NCC017-047-141-131245- /O.CON.KILM.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200413T1245Z/ PENDER NC-BLADEN NC-COLUMBUS NC- 828 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL PENDER...SOUTHEASTERN BLADEN AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTIES... AT 828 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CARVERS, OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELIZABETHTOWN, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

CC drop over chattanooga

don't worry..you could walk a half block either way to get out of its way tiny..but nice little hook

might go north of city however another cell to the SW won't if it gets its act together

TOG ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 836 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 930 PM CDT. * AT 836 PM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEERLICK CREEK CAMPGROUNDS, OR NEAR HOLT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 832 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT. * AT 832 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER HOLT, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SOUTHWESTERN BIRMINGHAM, TUSCALOOSA,