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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020 IAC031-103-231800- /O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-200523T1800Z/ CEDAR IA-JOHNSON IA- 1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL CEDAR AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES... AT 1234 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SOLON, OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST BRANCH, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA NORTHERN ILLINOIS NORTHWEST INDIANA SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL POSE A RISK OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HAIL.

IA TORDVN IAC031-103-231800- /O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0013.200523T1718Z-200523T1800Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 1218 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 100 PM CDT. * AT 1214 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR IOWA CITY, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO.

Tornado possible tagged UUS53 KDVN 231713 SVRDVN ILC015-195-231815- /O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0053.200523T1713Z-200523T1815Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 115 PM CDT. * AT 1212 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ERIE, OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF MORRISON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

Just arm chair "chase"....might drive a mile or two with the incoming cells Last Memorial day a nice spinning (Tor warned) wall cloud passed almost right above me about 1/2 mile NW IL river crested here yesterday at 27.91 #7 on record and is still at 27.6

watching those small cells trying to organize SW-SSW of me near Havana....track would take them right across PIA Metro as they move up along the IL river

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IOWA INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 231629Z - 231830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND ALSO FARTHER WEST BETWEEN DES MOINES AND CEDAR RAPIDS. AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED, AN INCREASING TORNADO AND DAMAGING-WIND THREAT WILL EVOLVE. DISCUSSION...LIFT WITH AND ADVANCING MID-LEVEL LOW AND INSOLATION/SURFACE HEATING AIDING IN A GRADUAL EXPANSION IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS MORNING - PARTICULARLY IN A COUPLE OF BANDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A FEW ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS WERE ALSO NOTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR QUINCY. THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING MID/UPPER LOW MIGRATES EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR DES MOINES WILL AID IN KEEPING SURFACE WINDS BACKED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING - ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. DESPITE MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW (GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-30 KNOTS AREAWIDE) AND MUCAPE ONLY REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE DAY, BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND VEERING KINEMATIC PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR CELLS IN THIS REGIME TO ROTATE. AS CELLS CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED AND POSE MORE OF A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..COOK/HART.. 05/23/2020

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1037 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034 AM CDT GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS THIS MORNING SHOW OUR COMPACT UPPER LOW/MCV NOW CENTERED NEAR KDSM. JUST AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX UP TO AROUND 85 KT ACROSS MO AND IL. THE 12Z ILX RAOB CORROBORATES THIS, WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 84 KT SAMPLED AT 300 MB. MEANWHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS OF 15Z, WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 15Z RUNNING FROM THE LOW NEAR KDSM, EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-74 OVER CENTRAL IL. OVERALL, THE THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES OVERHEAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION RESULTS IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL SUPPORT A NOTEWORTHY THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (ROUGHLY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM). ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, INCLUDING A NOTEWORTHY THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH BACKED SURFACE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING ARC OF WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IA WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL IL. ONCE THIS OCCURS, NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN BROKEN ARCS WILL BE PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHERN IL THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA IS UNDER A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, THE HIGHEST THREAT COULD END UP BEING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS, BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THEM SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. EXPECT THE THREAT OF STORMS TO BEGIN TO WANE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OVER EAST CENTRAL IL AND NORTHWESTERN IN ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET. KJB

first T-storm warning of the event BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 1028 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... EASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... WEST CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1115 AM CDT. * AT 1027 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BURGESS, OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALEDO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MOLINE, ROCK ISLAND, MILAN, COLONA, COAL VALLEY, BURGESS, VIOLA, MATHERVILLE, SHERRARD, REYNOLDS, OAK GROVE, CABLE, SHALE CITY, TAYLOR RIDGE, BODEN, PREEMPTION, SUNNY HILL ESTATES, WANLOCK, COYNE CENTER AND GILCHRIST. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...

10% TOR probs DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTERN IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONISN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH TORNADOES, WILL CROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ..SYNOPSIS IN MID/UPPER LEVELS, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES (AND TWO SUBSYNOPTIC-SCALE CYCLONES) PENETRATING THE MEAN RIDGING TO THE EAST. THE FIRST OF THOSE CYCLONES -- NOW APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PA AND PARTS OF ADJOINING STATES -- WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OTHER -- CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER IA -- HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORTICITY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING, THEN AS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WI AND LAKE MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN LOWER MI BY 12Z TOMORROW. TO ITS SOUTH, A SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- INITIALLY OVER EASTERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX -- SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION. THIS INCLUDES AN EMBEDDED MCV EVIDENT IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY COMPOSITES OVER SOUTHEASTERN OK. IN THE WEST, THE MAIN CYCLONE/VORTICITY MAX OF THE BROADER TROUGH WAS APPARENT OVER THE ID/UT BORDER, AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN MT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL LOW- AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES -- SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED, WILL EJECT FROM THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION, IN A BROAD FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN IA, STACKED UNDER THE MIDLEVEL CYCLONE CENTER, AND SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MN AND INTO ADJOINING WI THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN PARTS OF IL/IN, MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN WI BY 00Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT, ARCHING SOUTHWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW, WILL STALL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN KS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MO. AN EXTENSIVE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TN TO NORTHERN LA AND THE ARLKATEX REGION, INTO CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CYS-LHX SHOULD CONSOLIDATE TODAY AND MOVE TO EAST-CENTRAL/ NORTHEASTERN CO BY 00Z. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN TODAY, REACHING FROM ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE FRONT, JUST EAST OF THE LOW, ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KS, THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES, AND THE PERMIAN BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING MODULATED BY OUTFLOW FROM NEARBY CONVECTION. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, REACHING NORTH-CENTRAL ND, THE BLACK HILLS, AND NEAR THE WY/NE LINE BY 00Z. ..EASTERN IA TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IA AND NORTHWESTERN IL FROM MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. AMIDST WEAK MLCINH, ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM IN EPISODIC, BROKEN ARCS, THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE IA/IL/WI PART OF THE OUTLOOK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION, MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE, SHOULD FORM FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IL AND MOVE EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD. SEVERAL OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE COVERAGE OF SUCH CONVECTION DRIVES THE INCREASE IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OUTLOOK. AS THE COMPACT CYCLONE APPROACHES, A CHANNEL OF DIFLUENT AND INCREASING MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AND RELATED STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR, WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS WILL BE CONTERMINOUS WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE DCVA/ASCENT AND DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. MEANWHILE, THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN BOTH SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS IN THE EASTERN SECTOR OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WARM ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN A FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN IL, AND 500-1500 J/KG BENDING BACK INTO A NARROWING CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THE DEEP-LAYER LOW. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE STRONG (GENERALLY 10-15 KT), AND THE HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO BE EXTREMELY LARGE, THEY SHOULD BE WELL-CURVED WITH SUFFICIENT SRH (EFFECTIVE SRH OF 150-250 J/KG) TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. THREATS FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL EXTEND FARTHER TO THE NORTH, EAST AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH, WITH DEEP SHEAR DIMINISHING MARKEDLY TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND STORM MODES TRENDING MULTICELLULAR THERE.

nice little compact low over IA....2 rounds/spokes of storms possible the first spoke is now over the MS river as the strong May sun heats things up this morning more storms should develop south from this spoke and move across N IL starting around noon winds are backed SE....a 30-35 kt LLJ and a 50-55kt 500 MB jet max ..very low LCL's it is possible a second round could develop later this afternoon too.... 06Z SPC outlook had a slight risk with 5% TOR probs..but 11z HRRR breaks out what looks like many discrete rotating storms

12z GFS not looking good for N IL for flooding issues 1.8 PW values being funneled up around the TX low and the SE ridge and some weak 500mb jet energy N IL on the SE side of the GFS heaviest rain..but that is a bad place to be this time of year since poorly modeled outflows often focus the rains more SE then modeled hopefully I am wrong and the heaviest rains will stay more NW where they can handle the water better

IL river forecast crest 27.9 here at PIA tomorrow morning before a slow fall starts (only .3 to .6 ft day fall)....flood stage is 18ft...like last year I am worried about more heavy rains falling upstream over the next week..last year had two crests (#5 and 11) but we missed a couple of the big rains (got 2 out of the 4 but missed the middle ones))...any bad luck with training and/multiple hits will spell big trouble.. The 9/2/2008 event (#10) that almost happened with 3-5 inches expected just north..but outlflows pushed that more south into central IL sparing any more river rises here Historic Crests (1) 29.35 ft on 04/23/2013 (2) 28.80 ft on 05/23/1943 (3) 28.70 ft on 03/23/1979 (4) 28.40 ft on 03/07/1985 (5) 28.00 ft on 05/07/2019 (6) 27.94 ft on 03/14/2009 (7) 27.40 ft on 12/09/1982 (8) 27.10 ft on 03/23/1982 (9) 27.09 ft on 06/30/2015 (10) 27.06 ft on 09/20/2008 (11) 26.87 ft on 06/02/2019

but that is basically the only thing intact of the whole structure see the end of this video also the river may have crested in midland..below the forecast

I am not liking the potential cut off low over the TX coast with a high PW band being funneled up our way near a stalled front

It is right on the bank of the river per google maps

with .22 so far today as of 15z ORD just broke the record rainfall for May 8.41

Looks like the IL river at Morris crested at number 2 on record at 24.85 05/19 09:30 24.85ft 121kcfs (1) 24.91 ft on 04/19/2013 (2) 24.84 ft on 09/16/2008

Top 3 crest now forecast on IL river at Lasalle and morris

some heavy rainfall rates over North Central IL between PNT, Lasalle and PIA .5 up to 1 inch per hour on the small cells out of LOT There seem to be a spoke of storms along the south side that may turn NE into the hard hit areas already convection increasing over hard hit Livingston county low is just NW of PNT....with an almost deformation zone on the west side