janetjanet998

0400 PM SNOW MORRIS 41.36N 88.42W 12/29/2020 E2.0 INCH GRUNDY IL EMERGENCY MNGR SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST HOUR.

going to be a long day Sat/radar showing discrete storms developing over the gulf stream off GA and SC moving NNE towards eastern NC as modeled

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST THU DEC 24 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 241716Z - 241945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...WHILE THE NEAR-TERM TORNADO RISK MAY REMAIN MARGINAL, IT WILL INCREASE INTO A HIGHER PROBABILITY RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN EXACTLY THAT THREAT WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO WATCH IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION FROM ROBESON TO COLUMBUS COUNTY, NC HAVE HAD EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THESE HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH GREATER THAN 300 M2/S2. SCANT SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY (MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) IS PREVALENT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AMID LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THIS HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO, INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NC. WITH TIME, GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST SC SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NC. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CONFLUENCE BANDS ARE ANTICIPATED AND THE RISK FOR SUSTAINING SUPERCELLS SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ..GRAMS/GUYER.. 12/24/2020

now a second cell warned BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1212 PM EST THU DEC 24 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN BLADEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHWESTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1245 PM EST. * AT 1212 PM EST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CHADBOURN, OR 8 MILES WEST OF WHITEVILLE, MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

new day 1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST THU DEC 24 2020 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..EASTERN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES MULTI-ROUND SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, WHERE SEMI-DISCRETE WARM SECTOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD BE FOLLOWED BY A WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. MULTI-LAYER CLOUD COVER REMAINS PREVALENT AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION OCCURRING NEAR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WHERE LOW/MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-RACING BANDS OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT BECOMES ROOTED WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER, ALTHOUGH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINGERING WARM LAYER ALOFT LEADS TO SOME TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, EXTREMELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, ACCENTUATED BY 55-60 KT IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL AND 300+ 0-1 KM SRH, WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK, PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR/SRH, A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF REGIONAL SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE EVOLVES AND SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE HAZARD, ALTHOUGH A QLCS-RELATED TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST AS WELL. ..FLORIDA/GEORGIA A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT LATE MORNING IMMEDIATELY PRECEDES AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT/CONVECTIVE LINE, WITH SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION OTHERWISE REMAINING MINIMAL FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN GEORGIA. LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO SLOWLY VEER WITH WIND PROFILES TRENDING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER TIME. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY MODEST BUOYANCY, THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF UPSCALE-GROWING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHIFTING EASTWARD/TENDING TO DIMINISH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET. ..GUYER/LYONS.. 12/24/2020

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST THU DEC 24 2020 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SURROUNDING THE "ENHANCED" AREA... ..SUMMARY THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..SYNOPSIS IN MID/UPPER LEVELS, BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD, IN STEP WITH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH. AS ONE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE MB/ON BORDER -- WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER PERTURBATION INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL TX WILL PIVOT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THIS OCCURS, A CLOSED 500-MB CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME, ITS CENTER MOVING EASTWARD PAST SDF BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRIMARY, OCCLUDED SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WILL FILL AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY DRAWN ACROSS PARTS OF OH, EASTERN KY/TN, AL, TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOUTH, WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE CLOSES TO THE WEST, A WEAK, CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AL/NORTHWESTERN GA REGION SHOULD MOVE UP THE FRONT TO THE EASTERN WV/SOUTHWESTERN PA CORRIDOR BY 00Z, BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW OVER NY TONIGHT AND REACHING SOUTHERN QC BY 12Z. BY THEN, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN PA, THEN OFFSHORE FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS ATLANTIC COAST, HAVING CROSSED SOUTH FL AROUND 06Z. ..EASTERN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND VICINITY WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THIS REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN TWO PRIMARY REGIMES: 1. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MOVING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM A FAVORABLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING MARINE BOUNDARY-LAYER REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS CONVECTION WILL CROSS LESSER BUT STILL SUFFICIENT/SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS, AS THE WARM SECTOR MODIFIES AND BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE, AMIDST STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR. WARM-SECTOR DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL OFFSET MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE FROM EASTERN NC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUNDS/OUTER BANKS OF NC, LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE SOUTHERN NC COASTLINE. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE, OFFERING TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. THEN... 2. A NEAR-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION, PRESENTING A MORE-DOMINANT WIND THREAT, BUT WITH SOME LINE-EMBEDDED/QLCS TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENING HEIGHT/THERMAL GRADIENTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST. A 65-75 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND SHIFT ACROSS THIS REGION, LEADING TO UNCOMMONLY SIMILAR, 40-50-KT MAGNITUDES OF SHEAR VECTORS IN THE 0-1, 0-3, AND EFFECTIVE LAYERS. DESPITE THE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL, SOUTHERLY LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL FLOW, EVEN VERY SLIGHT HODOGRAPH CURVATURE CONTRIBUTES TO 200-350 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME STILL MORE STABLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT PAST A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AT LEAST A MARGINAL WIND AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE JUSTIFIED, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE AMBIENT DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE. ..FL/GA SEE THE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 517, MESOSCALE-DISCUSSION UPDATES FOR THAT, AND SEPARATE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372 FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SEVERE THREAT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AND WARM SECTOR OVER THE FL PANHANDLE REGION. THE MAIN BELT OF CONVECTION WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, PRESENTING A THREAT FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GREATEST OVER OPEN GULF WATERS NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT, WHERE MARINE THERMAL/MOISTURE FLUXES OPTIMIZE BOUNDARY- LAYER THETA-E. STILL, AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN A NORTHWARD-NARROWING CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE, AS PARTLY MODIFIED PARCELS ADVECT FROM THE GULF. THIS AIR MASS, CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST LAPSE RATES BUT ALSO MINIMAL MLCINH, ALSO MAY SUPPORT MATURATION OF CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THEY CROSS INTO MORE-STABLE AIR. ..EDWARDS/SMITH.. 12/24/2020

I am trying to find some history of regional Tornado outbreaks (or any tornadoes at all for that matter) in this area on Christmas eve and/or day but I cannot now there were some decent outbreaks after this chart in 2012 and 2015 but those were over the deep south or TN valley and not the Carolinas Late December 2012 North American storm complex https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_December_2012_North_American_storm_complex 31 confirmed only one in NC a EF1 and that was on the 26th ------------------------ Tornado outbreak of December 23–25, 2015 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_December_23–25,_2015 2 weak tornadoes in SC but those were on the 23rd and and looks like not connected with the main outbreak back west

seems like models are slowing the system down some each run allowing better moisture return SB CAPE >1000 now on the 18z NAM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 243 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 345 PM CDT. * AT 243 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ROCKFORD, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO

per police scanner reports still going on ...but in other areas of the city (isolated) widespread power outages might not help as night falls https://twitter.com/search?q=chicagoscanner&src=recent_search_click&f=live

trying to recall the highest wind gusts i have seen out of these systems 121 MPH for some reason my brain spits out,,not sure if that is correct ..

1225 PM TSTM WND GST BLAIRSTOWN 41.91N 92.08W 08/10/2020 E90 MPH BENTON IA EMERGENCY MNGR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH WITH MAJOR DAMAGE REPORTED IN TOWN.

the VAD in the lower 3km on COD nexlab was interesting and still has 60 kts

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1204 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020 IAC099-123-125-127-157-171-101730- /O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-200810T1730Z/ POWESHIEK IA-MARSHALL IA-MARION IA-TAMA IA-MAHASKA IA-JASPER IA- 1204 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR POWESHIEK...EASTERN MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN MARION...TAMA... MAHASKA AND EASTERN JASPER COUNTIES... AT 1203 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TRAER TO NEAR VICTOR TO 6 MILES WEST OF DELTA, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOME AREAS MAY HAVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH!

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NORTHERN INDIANA SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHWEST OHIO LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1035 AM UNTIL 600 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A FAST-MOVING COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL APPROACH THE CHICAGO AREA, WHILE OTHER STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1005 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005 AM CDT CURRENTLY, A COMPACT BOWING LINE OF STORMS (AND ASSOCIATED MCV) IS MOVING ACROSS HENRY, BUREAU, STARK, AND NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES. THE BOW IS BEING DRIVEN BY A STRONG 80-85KT RIJ SEEN NICELY ON OUR RADAR, WITH REPORTS FROM NWS QUAD CITIES CONFIRMING SEVERE WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE STORM IS MOVING INTO AN AIRMASS INTO WHICH HEAVY RAIN AND HENCE COOL AIR HAS BEEN FALLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT OPTIMALLY STRONG TO BALANCE SUCH A STRONG SURGING RIJ/COLD POOL, CONFIDENCE IN THE DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO PLOW INTO LA SALLE COUNTY IS NOT HIGH EVEN THOUGH A RESERVOIR OF PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CLUSTER. SO, WHILE THE BOW MAY CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS, THE HIGHEST WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED AND HENCE LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO AN ISOLATED BASIS. WE TOUCHED BASE WITH SPC AND THEY AGREE - THOUGH IF DAMAGE CONTINUES INTO LA SALLE COUNTY, WE WILL HAVE TO ENTERTAIN THE IDEA OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

Finally something MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 191512Z - 191645Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF ONGOING STORMS CONTINUES TO SURGE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. CONTINUATION OF LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO COULD WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS BOWING/SURGING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 50 KT AT THIS TIME. THE STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LYING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA, AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LOCAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT MCV. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOWING CLUSTER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL/CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA, WHICH -- ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DENSE CLOUD COVER HINDERING HEATING -- SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN TEMPERED/LOCAL AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. HOWEVER, WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES MAINTAINING AN AXIS OF 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE, AND MODERATE/UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE, CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ORGANIZED IN THE SHORT TERM. WHILE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND RISK MAY REMAIN LIMITED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS, CONTINUATION OF SEVERE-CALIBER GUSTS INTO REGIONS THAT HAVE BEEN RAIN-COOLED COULD PROMPT WW CONSIDERATION.

and where is SPC still.... not a good day for the pros BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 1011 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... BUREAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1045 AM CDT. * AT 1011 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER TISKILWA, OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF PRINCETON, MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM! HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

This area got 3-8 inches last Weds...much of woodford got 6-8 inches then also 3-4 inches down over southern Grundy and that cluster is still well west.... come on LOT where is the flash flooding warning? BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1005 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 100 PM CDT. * AT 1004 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN FOR PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

Southern Lasalle and southern Grundy county needs a flash flood warning

7 t-storm warnings and several reports of wind damage with that western cluster not even a meso from SPC

WPC for flooding ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0506 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 958 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 191358Z - 191858Z SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HOURLY RATES BETWEEN 1.0-2.0" WILL BE CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO NORTHWEST INDIANA. DISCUSSION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN IOWA, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED IN THE LAST HOUR PER RECENT RADAR RETURNS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS SEEN IN THE GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE HAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND PWS AROUND 2 INCHES (1.75" AT ILX) WHICH IS 2.5-3.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. SBCAPE IS NOW UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. FINALLY, PER THE LATEST RAP, 850 MB INFLOW INTO THE CONVECTION REMAINS 20-30 KTS THIS MORNING. HI-RES GUIDANCE, INCLUDING LATEST HRRR RUNS, ARE NOT INITIALIZING CURRENT ACTIVITY VERY WELL WHICH LEADS TO AN OVERALL LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WITH INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION AND BUILDING INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION, AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE, THERE ISN'T ANY STRONG REASON FOR THE CONVECTION TO WANE AT THIS POINT IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, AND THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR SOME BACKBUILDING OR REPEATING ROUNDS GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE STORM MOTION (AND WATCHING THE SMALLER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST IA THAT COULD GROW FURTHER AND TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS). GIVEN THE HIGH PWS, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 4 KM, HOURLY TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2" CAN BE EXPECTED AND TOTALS THROUGH 18Z AS HIGH AS 3" IN PLACES. THE 7-DAY PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES SHOW SOME ABOVE NORMAL AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND IS WHERE SOME OF THE FFGS ARE LOWER, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL TO FALL OVER URBAN OR MORE SENSITIVE AREAS, SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

new development east of the western cluster just west of me...clusters may merge meanwhile...A quick spin up? 0842 AM TSTM WND DMG SPERRY 40.95N 91.15W 07/19/2020 DES MOINES IA EMERGENCY MNGR BILLBOARD DAMAGE AND TWISTED SIGNS BY THE JOHN DEERE DEALERSHIP.

Models not doing well with the IL/SE IA convection a couple of severe warmed storms in SE IA cloud tops continue to cool and expand HRRR trying to catch up looks like some training over the south Chicago Suburbs incoming ILX update RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED AROUND 5-6 AM, WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CHICAGO METRO TO PEORIA, WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. MODEL DEPICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN STELLAR WITH THEIR ACCURACY THUS FAR IN THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH THE NSSL WRF APPEARS TO HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A HANDLE ON AT LEAST THE ILLINOIS PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY.

looks like this is the 2nd wettest calendar day is Peoria 5.19 5.52 May 18, 1927 https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/IL/Peoria/extreme-annual-peoria-precipitation.php also 800 PM HEAVY RAIN E PEORIA 40.74N 89.61W 07/15/2020 M8.00 INCH PEORIA IL PUBLIC RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA