janetjanet998

Very Light snow here now Perhaps the first patch of many the next few days 18zNAM nickels and dimes central IL 2-4 inches by 18z Tuesday then a brief break before the weds system

interesting pencil thin line of higher returns from Gary IND back SW to PIA

2-3 inches down in that band over Knox into Marshall county per LSR

not in the band but... 1200 PM SNOW DES MOINES INT AIRPORT 41.53N 93.66W 02/06/2021 M1.0 INCH POLK IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS TOTAL AT DSM AIRPORT THROUGH NOON. DES MOINES SNOW 6 1 80 NW14 30.20F VSB 1/2 WCI -11 6HR MIN TEMP: 6; 6HR MAX TEMP: 8; 6HR PCP: 0.10;

vis down to 1/4 mile in places in NE/IA and rates up to an inch per hour 1033 AM SNOW LINCOLN 40.82N 96.69W 02/06/2021 M3.7 INCH LANCASTER NE PUBLIC 1 INCH IN THE LAST HOUR.

00z GFS interesting for the 11-12th windy too even has a lake connection for NE IL at times

18z NAMS = lame

Models hinting at another nickel and dime event 11-12th instead of cold blast so Sat is system 1....... Monday/Tuesday is system 2 (or is 2 and 3 in there combined)? next is thursday/friday no thread yet)

first of many nickel and dimes snowfall totals over the next week 10+ ? (Euro looks like it wants to reload later vs the cold dump GFS)

NAM weak still only 1-2 maybe 3 NEST coming in a litter better it looks like

18z GFS zzzzzzzzz 1-2

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1047 AM CST THU FEB 4 2021 UPDATE 1047 AM CST THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE, WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO SUPPORT AN PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE SEE THIS WITH THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, AND STRONG LOWER-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. THIS YIELDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THERE BEING SOME RESPECTABLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS EVENT, WITH PRECIPITATION NOW DEVELOPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS BEGINNING AS A SHORT (<1 HOUR) PERIOD OF RAIN AND SLEET. THIS IS DUE TO A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WAS SAMPLED OFF A RECENT AMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF KRFD TO BE AROUND 3.5C AT 850MB. WHILE A WARM LAYER OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD NORMALLY BE CAUSE FOR CONCERN, THIS WARM LAYER IS ALSO FAIRLY DRY, WHICH WILL YIELD HIGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS THROUGH THE LAYER. FOR THIS REASON, WE EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITHIN AN HOUR OF PRECIPITATION START TIME. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE KDVN AREA, WHERE THEY QUICKLY TRANSITIONED OVER TO SNOW. OUR HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM ABOUT 1 PM THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW COULD YIELD SNOW RATES UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WIND DOWN BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, EXPECT OUR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY TURN WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE. IT APPEARS WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING SOME OVERNIGHT. THIS CAUSES CONCERN FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT, IN SPITE OF THE SNOW FALLING TODAY BEING A WETTER TYPE. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE IN MORE WIDE OPEN AREAS OUTSIDE MORE URBAN AREAS. COLD THEN BECOMES THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS. KJB

NAM weaker more south still nickels and dimes NE IL with 1-2 central IL 4

shakedown 1979

more confusion so it's 16.3 not 18.3?

the central park figure may be correct at this point but the segments don't make sense 15.3 at 1pm 18.3 at 7pm but .7 inches of precip in between?? https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html

needs to stay of that second mini dry slot moving in from the south for anything over that

if not already .59 of precip has fallen since then https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html

as of 1pm looks like 13.3 was the daily then and they didn't ass the 2 inches from last night PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 557 PM EST MON FEB 1 2021 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1251 PM HEAVY SNOW CENTRAL PARK 40.77N 73.97W 02/01/2021 M15.3 INCH NEW YORK NY OFFICIAL NWS OBS CORRECTS PREVIOUS HEAVY SNOW REPORT FROM CENTRAL PARK. PARK CONSERVANCY.

another .11 liquid at NYC last hour 19-20z this after .22 from 18-19z

you guys need to take a quick peak at the 12z Euro for next Sunday

13.3 at 18z more needed to tie from there 1) 14.2 2) 13.6 3) 13.1 4) 7.7 5) 7.6 6) 6.9 7) 6.7 8) 6.5 9) 5.7 10) 4.8

It looks like central park may miss the sleet at least this surge if they can still in the pivot without getting dry slotted may hit 20+ for NYC?? may be a matter of miles

according to CC so far , any sleet changes back to snow a couple of miles south of you

Yes I know its just that it has been creeping north... hopefully stays all snow