janetjanet998

you could see this on MKE radar too a couple of hours ago over MKE there was a thin snake band moving NW onshore but the main surface convergence band was well East over mid lake

between the system snows and LES, much of the Chicago Metro could have 20 inches on the ground BEFORE the potential Big Dog Thursday

snow hitting the ground south central IA in that band as of 17z CHARITON has 1 mil Vis and Ottumwa has very light snow take that due east and its the northern part of the metro , but I assume there will be a slight north push with time

the thin snow band goes right over the DVN radar site. with 15-20 dBZ echoes on the western edge vanishing and reappearing at higher levels relative to the radar beam more east so wasteful

LOL REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 946 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2021 UPDATE 946 AM CST CURRENTLY, AN ELONGATED 155 KT JET STREAK EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN, AS SAMPLED NICELY BY THE 12Z RAOBS FROM MPX/GRB/APX. IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK IS A SIMILARLY ELONGATED ZONE OF RADAR ECHOES STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA THOUGH WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. YET, CLOUD BASES NEAR 10,000 FEET AND A DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION REPORTS FROM ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SUGGEST MOSTLY VIRGA IS FALLING WITHIN THE LONG BAND OF RADAR ECHOES, EXCEPT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND VERY FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE INCOMING SUITE OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE CULPRIT IS A PREVIOUSLY UNADVERTISED WEDGE OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR CENTERED AROUND 850 MB / 5000 FEET, WHICH IS CHEWING UP THE SNOW THAT IS DEVELOPING FROM THE DECIDEDLY UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. AS A RESULT, THE ONSET OF SNOW TODAY AND OVERALL SNOW TOTALS WILL TAKE LONGER AND BE LOWER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT, RESPECTIVELY. USING THE RAP 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS A PROXY TO TRACK THE ELIMINATION OF THE DRY LAYER, IT APPEARS LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TRICKLING DOWN TO THE GROUND AFTER DARK AND IN THE 9-11 PM WINDOW. BY THAT POINT, A DEEP SNOWFLAKE GROWTH LAYER OF NEARLY 15,000 FEET WILL STILL AFFORD FLUFFY SNOW RATIOS OF 20:1 TO 25:1, WITH GRADUAL LIFT SUPPORTING A SNOW RATE OF 0.1 TO 0.3"/HR THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. UPPER- LEVEL LIFT WILL THEN WANE WITH TIME AS THE UPPER- LEVEL JET STREAK SCOOTS EASTWARD, THOUGH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. OVERALL, THE REDUCTION IN SNOW TOTALS BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WAS A GOOD MOVE, AND GENERALLY 1 TO 4" (HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE LOCALIZED THAN NOT) LOOKS ON TRACK. SHOULD THE DRY LAYER ERODE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, AT LEAST SOME CONSIDERATION WILL BE GIVEN TO A SHORT LEAD-TIME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER OUR MESSAGING APPEARS QUITE APPROPRIATE FOR A LONG-DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. BORCHARDT

sort of an odd situation the scattered very weak north to south moving radar echoes over IL are light snow showers (drove through some this morning yet the stronger returns over eastern IA into Western IL moving east appear to be virga

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 438 PM CST THU FEB 11 2021 UPDATE 436 PM CST RECENTLY SENT OUT A TARGETED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DUPAGE, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COOK, AND LAKE (IL) COUNTIES. PERSISTENT DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT BAND CONTINUES TO CHURN, AND WITH THE GRAND RAPIDS RADAR SAMPLING RETURNS TO NEAR 6 KFT ALIGNED FROM NEAR LUDINGTON INTO THE NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SHORE SHOULD ALLOW BURSTS OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE, AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THINGS SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. A RECENT SNOW REPORT FROM THE EVANSTON AREA INDICATING RATES WERE POSSIBLY APPROACHING AN INCH PER HOUR ALIGNS WELL WITH RADAR RETURNS AND LIKELY FAIRLY HIGH RATIO SNOW. EXPECTING TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY SETTING UP SHOP THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH (PLUS A LITTLE WIND: SEEING SOME OCCASIONAL 20-25 MPH GUSTS). WE'LL THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WAVE WHICH SHOULD SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS THE AREA (MAINLY NORTH OF I-80) THIS EVENING. CARLAW

I’m mobile and it’s hard to tell but do I see smoke stack plumes from the Gary plants and maybe another plume from something in north central lake county IND?

0351 PM SNOW EVANSTON 42.05N 87.69W 02/11/2021 M2.0 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER DAILY SNOWFALL TOTAL SO FAR, WITH STEADY SNOW STILL FALLING.

I wonder if LOT will pull the trigger for an advisory for Cook/lake IL for a combo of lake and system snow?

Plus, the closer we get to spring, odds increase of a warm spell that could melt things all at once rather then gradual if this was say Jan 1st

Lake band looks pretty good 20-25 Dbz now about to move ashore HRRR Sim radar even seems to be underdoing it for 15Z time stamp

looks like LES potential oscillating from NW Indiana to SE Wisconsin from now into the weekend

Traffic cams out of Galesburg showing roads suddenly snow covered again (wasn't 1/2 hour ago) so that band may be decent

Watching the IL river basin fill up with snowpack over NE IL and NW IND many of the top ten crests on the upper IL river from PIA upstream have occurred in the past 15 years with over 100 years of history Urban growth of the SW burbs the past 20 years not helping with any increased runoff

one big storm could break down the pattern of minor-moderate systems every 36 hours with a big cold dry air dump just a matter of opinion but I would rather have 3 weeks of the above then one big storm it's adding up

The back western portion of the band seems to be increasing again north of PIA to Morris for some reason

I seem to recall an event when a mini meso like that one parked just offshore and the western tail crushed Lake county IL with 10+ inches

might be a 5 inch report in the Chicago metro in the thin stripe of the overlapping bands whoever was on the south end of the 1st band and the north end of this newer band

0607 PM SNOW 1 NE CAMANCHE 41.80N 90.26W 02/08/2021 M5.5 INCH CLINTON IA CO-OP OBSERVER 24 SNOW TOTAL FOR CLINTON 5.5 WITH 17 ON GROUND.

18z NAM still clueless only around an inch 19z HRRR dumps 3+ in IA but then the band goes poof starting about now (been doing that all morning, weakens the band 1-2 hours after the runtime)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1203 PM CST MON FEB 8 2021 UPDATE 1203 PM CST HAVE ISSUED A TARGETED, IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS ROUGHLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80 TO ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-90. SUPPORTING FACTORS FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCE INCLUDED: OVERPERFORMANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT-MORNING SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 DUE TO VERY HIGH SLRS AND LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH (20-25:1) SLRS WITH PM SNOW; UPSTREAM RADAR PRESENTATION OF A HEAVIER FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN SNOW BAND FROM IA INTO NORTHWEST IL; EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS BANDING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CHICAGO METRO THROUGH THE PM COMMUTE; AND ROAD TREATMENTS BEING LESS EFFECTIVE DUE TO THE COLD AIR TEMPS. HAVE INDICATED 1-3" SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA, MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE EVENING COMMUTE (WITH RATES UP TO 1/2"/HR). REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE HEART OF THE SNOW BAND, AS VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE HAS BEEN NOTED UPSTREAM. LIGHTER SNOW HAS ALSO FILLED IN SOUTH OF THE BAND INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT THIS SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHTER AMOUNTS UP TO 1". IF INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAND PICKS UP THIS AFTERNOON, MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE ADVISORY. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE WISCONSIN STATE LINE COUNTIES. WE CURRENTLY LEFT THESE OUT OF THE HEADLINE, BUT IF IT LOOKS LIKE THE BAND WILL GET INTO THESE COUNTIES, WILL MAKE A DECISION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ON WHETHER THE WWA NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED NORTH AS WELL. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER THIS EVENING AS BANDING SHIFTS EAST, THOUGH THERE'S CONCERN FOR SOME RE-INVIGORATION OF LOW-MID-LEVEL F-GEN (850-700 MB) OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. ADVISORY END TIME WAS SET AT 10PM GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON ENDING OF STEADIER SNOW. NEXT ITEM TO ADDRESS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD ADD ADDITIONAL SNOW THERE. NOT MENTIONED IS THE VERY COLD TEMPS, WHICH IF CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT, COULD CERTAINLY BE COLDER IN SPOTS THAN GOING OFFICIAL FORECAST LOWS FOR EARLY TUESDAY. CASTRO

either models are slow with developing the snow band (had nothing now) or they are completely missing it this morning so the question is are models just too slow with the system and the snow band developed faster and will move out faster resulting in the same amount of snow OR is this bonus snow that the models missed this morning and no change with the afternoon and overnight timing?

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1110 AM CST MON FEB 8 2021 UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST MON FEB 8 2021 NARROW BAND OF STRONGER FORCING IS PRODUCING RESPECTABLE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WHICH IS DEVELOPING/MOVING RAPIDLY INTO EASTERN IOWA. VERY SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS WELL BUT GIVEN ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THE OVERNIGHT SNOW HAD SLRS OF 25-30:1 WHICH PRODUCED AREAS OF 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE SAME HIGH RATIOS SHOULD BE IN PLAY WITH THIS BAND OF STRONG FORCING. THUS EXPECT A SWATH OF 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL WITH A BAND OF 3 INCHES.

looks like around 2 inches of pure fluff on the north side of PIA if a bird farts there will be a blizzard so it may get interesting later in the week even with a moderate strength system with any wind