janetjanet998

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

warning says PDS tornado but radar indicated?

Damn URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 93 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA WESTERN ILLINOIS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SUMMARY...INTENSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

it's an old dead thunderstorm anvil that is thinning and moving fast so not much

They connected the MOD risk areas

Convection firing in SE Kansas with the first wave new SPC ..MIDWEST AND THE MID-MS TO OH VALLEYS A 992-MB CYCLONE OVER EASTERN NE WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MATURES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BEFORE OCCLUDING THIS EVENING. A PLUME OF SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY SUPPORTED BY MID 50S TO 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN THE OZARKS VICINITY BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN GRADIENT OF THE DEEPER BUOYANCY PLUME AS A LOBE OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT SPREADS NORTHEAST DOWNSTREAM OF THE VIGOROUS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE THIS LEAD ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL THREAT, HOW THE OTHER HAZARDS EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO IL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY, ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION OCCURS TO THE EAST. THE PRIMARY SEVERE EVOLUTION REMAINS LIKELY TO EVOLVE BEGINNING AROUND 19Z TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS CENTRAL IA AND BROADENING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MO. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPH WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT A BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. AS ACTIVITY RAPIDLY SPREADS INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SRH ENVIRONMENT IN EASTERN IA AND THE MS VALLEY, SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED. THERE SHOULD BE AN ADEQUATE GAP BETWEEN THE LEAD AND PRIMARY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SUPERCELLS THROUGH AT LEAST EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO MOST OF IL INTO EARLY EVENING. WITHIN A 3-6 STP ENVIRONMENT AND THE CORE OF THE 500-700 MB JETS UPSTREAM THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE, LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES.

Shades of big Dixie Alley outbreaks with 2 waves with the lead wave having winds backed more ahead of it

ILX pulled the trigger INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GALESBURG, TOULON, PEORIA, LACON, EUREKA, CANTON, PEKIN, BLOOMINGTON, NORMAL, RUSHVILLE, HAVANA, LINCOLN, CLINTON, BEARDSTOWN, PETERSBURG, WINCHESTER, JACKSONVILLE, SPRINGFIELD, TAYLORVILLE, AND DECATUR 332 PM CST MON DEC 19 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 304 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2022 DAY 1 VALID 1745Z SAT JUL 23 2022 - 12Z SUN JUL 24 2022 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER... ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN WHICH HAS DROPPED A GROWING FOOTPRINT OF 3-6" OF RAINFALL LED TO A TARGETED MODERATE RISK NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER, WHERE ONGOING RAINFALL AND RAINFALL LATER TODAY COULD EXACERBATE ISSUES. THE GAP BETWEEN THE BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY IN IL/IN AND WHAT'S INCOMING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHWEST IA IS NARROWING -- THERE'S INCREASING CONCERN THAT ANY GAP IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL, IF AT ALL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED TRAINING IN EITHER A GENERALLY WEST TO EAST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF AT LEAST THREE CONVECTIVE ROUNDS --

IF the current storms over NE IL become the WAA wing of that MN complex ..get your boats ready you can perhaps see weak signs of this starting on the visible (connecting clouds back into MN)

MOD risk coming today edit: Chicago lucked out the other day, really thought that storm was going to drop a strong tornado as it moved SE along that front

I still don't get where they determine the official total is from for years(decades) it was the spotter just SW of the airport if you type in the coordinates in the LSR 40.76N 89.60W it says Donavon Park this time but other times it has been the Health department and once even Peoria Heights Tower Park among others they seem to jump around

got to be 2 inch per hour rates here in that last intense band..huge flakes won't last long though

For some reason I foresee an overachieving sleet storm for us

LOT talks about the fire causing more snow downwind and plane exhaust from O'Hare doing the same thing also there seems to be a band of weak returns downwind of the Gary IND plant into eastern will county all day SOME OF THESE SHOWERS IN MAINLY DUPAGE COUNTY HAVE APPEARED TO BE SPAWNED FROM AIRCRAFT EXHAUST WITH THE ADDED NUCLEI SUPPORTING SNOW CRYSTAL FORMATION. WE SEE THIS AT TIMES WHEN CLOUDS ARE AT THE COLD END OF THE SUPERCOOLED LIQUID ZONE (-7 TO -11C) AND THAT'S WHAT AMDAR SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING RIGHT NOW. THESE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED BRIEF MODEST RATES PER SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS, BUT LAST FOR A VERY QUICK DURATION DUE TO THE RAPID ADVECTION OF THE SHOWERS IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING UNDER THESE THOUGH. ALSO OF NOTE, IF LOOKING AT OUR RADAR ONE WILL NOTICE A PLUME EMANATING FROM NORTHWEST DUPAGE COUNTY, AND THAT IS CONCENTRATED SMOKE FROM A FIRE AT A LARGE RECORDS STORAGE FACILITY NEAR BARTLETT, PER REPORTS FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ANALYZING THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND CORRELATION COEFFICIENT, IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS IS ALSO CREATING NUCLEI FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS IT RISES INTO THE CLOUD LAYER. THIS LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN KANE AND NORTHERN KENDALL COUNTIES.