eddygeeme

Correction meant fall as deep in the 20s as they can get. I'm in Germantown exit 16 literally 2-3 minutes from Clarksburg my forecast low is 26.

Every little bit helps. Likely picking up and modeling the current conditions we are seeing and discussing. Will be interesting to see if other models pick up. There will be some with the dreaded white rain but likely some surprises if the front end thump comes in heavy.

This. Temps will drop but slow rise a cpl degrees. Which is why getting some good rational cooling effect tonight will be key I don't think you want to be at ex 34-35 at Sun rise means clouds rapidly move in and your low was around freezing. Even with a good front end in that scenario places will like have a quick initial burst of snow to sleet before changing over to rain. Get the temps as deep in the 20s and hope for favorable track conditions even if it's the slightest.

Yup sunset is in less than a hour, cold ground fresh cold air mass they should drop. The battle won't be the airmass we have but the low track which is why if your a winter weather lover you need it as cold as you can possibly get it and you want some cooperation with the low. That said there should be a good initial thump with the moisture available. The earlier it moves in the better. -Keep clear to partyly cloudy skies so temps drop like a rock after sunset. -Get clouds to roll in before sunrise -Pray for decent front end thump. Have seen situations where a decent surprising front end thump along with a slightly favorable LP track holds more places over to the wintry precip side longer before any changeover occurs. There have been worse set ups.

The more hours we can get of clear skies the better. Sunset is in a hour best solution is to have clear skies for good part of the at least up to midnight get those temps to drop and hold off a slow rise until the precip moves in.

That's what I'm thinking it's about 90% clear skies with only thin wispy high cirrus clouds. Ideal for some good radiational cooling with sunset approaching in a hour and change. I like the temperature set up along with the frozen ground. We've had far worse setups and have gotten accumulating snow ex the surprise 2 in a few weeks ago.

Something I've noticed IMBY in Germantown the ground is frozen solid. Every little bit helps. The main thing to watch is the overnight temps. Forecast is for mid 20s 26 here IMBY. I'm at 38/21 mostly clear skies with some high cirrus clouds. With sunset approaching in a cpl hours I like temps to drop quickly. It will all come down to how much temps can drop overnight and the front end thump.

24/17 Germantown

This will come down to a game of watching temps Friday Night with lows in the mid to upper 20s with clear skies giving way to increasing clouds across much the forecast area sw to ne. Where temps drop enough before the cloud cover comes in will help greatly. Check your temps if you're low to mid 30s overnight Friday..... I'm expecting the typical slop across the area from heavy rain to heavy snow and everything in between. EDIT-High IMBY Saturday is 35 low 31 Saturday night. Temps running 2-3 degrees colder Friday night and holding thru Sat early afternoon changes a lot.

Always assumed it was.

You always want to be on the gradient line I always heard someone will get the thump or the shaft. Hopefully with rates there is more thump for a lot more areas. Pray for chillier temps to hold. Watching the thermals with this will be key. I'll be watching like a hawk starting Friday afternoon to see how cool temps get and how fast cloud cover rolls in Saturday morning.

Hey man I had a account here a while ago. It sucks having the crew scattered from over there. The thing I'll miss is the banter and tracking every ones opinions and winter IMBY stories and tracking mods up until the bog storm. The only thing I don't like here is the sub categories you won't get that here.

Indeed the last change over event here in Germantown we overperformed I live off exit 16 by Clarksburg and heading up to Damascus. We got 2inches out of what was suppose to be just over a trace. Been living at this location for 8 yrs and it "feels" like one of those situations.