KeenerWx

IEM is such a fun little rabbit hole to sink into. Especially when things are quiet. Looked at tornado warning counts over the past nearing 20 years (2005-2025). A few things stood out to me in particular right away. There was one small area in Illinois that has had 0 tornado warnings in the past 20 years, near Dalzell (NNW of Peru) in LaSalle County. Similarly, two small areas in Iowa that have had 0 tornado warnings in same period. One in W Winneshiek County, around/east of Protivin. The other in Ida County around Battle Creek. Indiana appeared to have full coverage over the period, which is what I’d expected from IL/IA. MN/WI/MI/OH had several gaps, but again expected given areas reaching further outside the core climatological favored areas for svr/tor. One interesting part for MN, though, was the boundary between Grand Forks & Duluth CWA. Particularly pronounced between Wadena & Cass Counties. You’ll see it immediately. There’s definitely more county boundary differences that become noticeable but that one jumped out to me quite a bit compared to the rest of the field I looked at.

While the possibility existed, no grand finale of aurora tonight. Ingredients just did not coexist simultaneously to produce a notable show. There were some eye visible periods of reds. But compared to last night, well, it didn’t compare. Still riding the high of the past week. Quite a treat to get slammed by terrestrial and space weather in short succession. Now to settle back into a slumber and wait. Can’t get too greedy.

Just some more compressed iPhone pics. Possibly at risk of spamming, but this event was incredible. First was ~10:37P when things were really starting to dance. Quick movements of pillars and bleeding of vibrant reds/greens. View is to the north. Second picture is at ~10:43P and looking to the SE. The contrast of the vibrant green “snake” leader was…something. Spook-and-awe.

Another impact will happen from the X5 flare earlier. The impact from the X5 flare was actually forecasted to be the strongest. From the two CME’s that led to tonight’s show, forecast was for G3 @ 7+ KPI. We got to G4 @ what looks like at this point 8+/9-. Tomorrow had been forecast G4 at 8/8+. All to say, some thought is that tomorrow will end up being even more extraordinary. The downside is that (1) peak is projected during daylight hours, (2) clouds will be a problem for many in the sub during the nighttime hours.

Directly overhead now in NW Indiana.

Aurora now naked eye visible on the horizon. Washed out haze of green and red at the moment, but we’ll see if we get any substorms that help put on a more vivid display.

Quite the middle finger pointed right into extreme SW La Porte & W Starke County. Cruel.

For those interested in space weather, G3 conditions possible late Tuesday night into early morning Wednesday with KP index forecasted as 7+. Not unlike the most recent snow event, a lot of variables at play. And we won’t really know a lot until game time. But nonetheless, potential is there to see aurora across parts of the sub.

Band dropped another 1.2” on its march back east. Three day total now at 8.3”. Most significant November event, locally, in my lifetime. Top tier lake event, too, but I don’t immediately know where it lands. Crazy that we’re already like 60-70% of the total seasonal snowfall for each 23-24 and 24-25. Hope the curse is lifted and there’s more fun to be had this winter.

100%. Especially as you are outside of the typical zone to cash in on lake snow. This was pretty much the perfect scenario and outcome for your area. Absolutely incredible.

Yeah. Lowell in Lake County (IN) has reported 10” and the best returns seemed to have been slotted west of them towards the Momence area. Wild event nonetheless. Even with the localized totals, quite a spread the wealth scenario across the southern Lake Michigan region. Now up to 5” overnight with event total at 7.1”. Seem to be about finished at this point. We’ll see what else the lake will provide as the primary moves back east over the next few hours.

What have you grabbed so far?

Hot damn. Report of 12” from Momence in Kankakee County. Not surprising giving radar presentation. Still going. At this point basically sealed as an all time lake event for them.