Wurbus

The temp difference between the RGEM & NAM at 48 hours is massive. Just looking at Knoxville, the temp is 13 degrees on the RGEM and 30 degrees on the NAM.

Happy hour has arrived on the GFS for the Jan 10th-11th storm

Looked like it was amped and cut through TN. A little ice in East TN, but it warms up into the 40s as it cuts. I'll take that over the inch of ice.

Wild that we have 20 pages on the Jan thread before it even begins!

Might have to go buy that indoor propane heater I saw at Lowe's earlier today if this comes to fruition.

Holy smokes this is some really cold air. Widespread -10 to -15 temps with wind chills in the -30 to -40 range

CMC is showing about .5" of ice for most of East TN as Carver mentioned

Ice and Kuchera maps for your viewing pleasure

So we basically have CMC/UKIE vs GFS/GEFS for the system around the 6th?

ICON blankets the whole state on the 1st system around the 6th. We'll see if GFS is still cutter city here shortly.

Wow.....This is the "warm" nose I can get behind!

From MRX: After yesterday's climate data, Knoxville has confirmed a 7th consecutive day with 4" or more of snow depth. This now breaks the record of 6 consecutive days during February 2-7, 1996 with data for snow depth going back to January of 1910.

What a week. I still have 4-6" in shaded places a week after the storm. My road is just a sheet of ice and my average outdoor temp was 18.5 degrees for an entire week! Also, the weight of the snow/ice has knocked a lot of my shrubs to the ground. I knocked it off yesterday, but I believe I was too late.

I've had flurries since about 9am here in Knoxville. Not really accumulating much, but it is nice to see them flying around outside. Temp has been hovering around 31.

I have a question on how temp is reported at the main stations. For example, if the temp reaches 32.6 as the high for the day, do they round up to 33?

Unsurprisingly, the SREF did not handle the snow pack temps well for Knoxville.

I recorded -4 at my house in Knoxville.

Someone updated the snow depth on the GFS to show a lot less than what is on the ground. Probably because of the feedback issues. 18z had Knoxville around -15 tonight and 00z is showing 3 tonight.

MRX Discussion this afternoon: As the sun sets Wednesday night, temperatures will quickly fall into the teens and into the single digits by Thursday morning. Hazardous driving conditions remain possible across areas that have lingering moisture/snow on roadways as they will see refreezing. Heights rise on Thursday ahead of our next system and temperatures climb back into the mid 30s to low 40s. Precip chances increase Thursday afternoon into Thursday night areawide. This is in response to a weak shortwave moving across the area. QPF hasn`t changed too much since the previous forecast. QPF is still generally around 0.25 inches. Rain is still expected south of I-40, with mixed precip along and north of I-40 and the Cumberland Plateau, and all snow across northeast TN, southwest VA, and the east TN mountains. The predominate precip type still looks like it will be rain/snow but some light freezing rain can`t be ruled either based on sounding data. Any freezing rain should be relatively light with ice accretion averaging a few hundredths of an inch. Precip exits the central TN valley by late Friday morning but will remain across northeast TN and southwest VA into Friday evening. This is due to an upper level trough moving through the Ohio River Valley that brings additional moisture across the aforementioned areas. Storm total snow still similar, with 1 to 2 inches possible across the east TN mountains and southwest VA. Lighter accumulations up to half an inch possible north of I-40 and along the I-81 corridor. NBM prob data shows around a 40 to 50% probability of 1" of snow or more across the east TN mountains and southwest VA. Another bout of Arctic air moves in Friday night and lasts through the weekend but no measurable precip is expected during this time. Overnight lows on Friday and Saturday will be in the single digits areawide. With low temperatures in the single digits, and breezy northwest winds, windchill values below zero are likely across all areas. In these conditions frostbite can begin in as little as 30 minutes with outdoor exposure. By Monday we are back into the low to mid 40s as high pressure develops to our southeast behind the departing trough. Our next shot of precip is on Tuesday but all rain is expected for this round as temps will be in the upper 40s to low 50s during the day.

Gotta say the models did well on the "bullseye" area from 3-4 days out they were honking the Knoxville area and most never wavered.

GFS could be overdoing the cold, but I noticed it starts with an 12" snow depth in Knoxville while the other models start with 4-6" so I think that could be a major difference in the temp profiles.

Nothing on the radar, but getting a nice light snow this morning. Temp is 14 degrees, this cold air is really squeezing all the moisture out of the air that it can.

Kinda crazy I have 10 inches of snow, sitting at 23 degrees, and now it has been sleeting/icing for the past 30 mins.

Almost looks like some freezing rain now after about 10" snow and temp at 23.

Just went outside to shovel some snow for a path for the dogs and measured just over 9" in a few different spots. Also sitting at 23.4 degrees at the house.