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Wurbus

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Everything posted by Wurbus

  1. Wurbus
    I think the December 20th-22nd timeframe looks interesting. The GFS & GEFS have had some sort of storm during that time period for a couple days now. I don't know if anything will pan out, but that seems like our next best chance of snow from the models and ensembles.
  2. Wurbus
    Looks like I'm under a dry slot right now. I would say I have close to an inch on my deck.
  3. Wurbus
    I was trying to post a video, but no idea how to compress it. Anyways, snowing pretty good near Karns area. I'd say I'm at about half an inch on the deck so far.
  4. Wurbus
    Pretty big jump on the SREF plumes for Knoxville from the 9am. Average went from 1 inch to 1.8 inches.
  5. Wurbus
    This is a full weenie post, but I'm not sure I've ever seen a member show such high snow totals for east TN as member 41 on the Euro last night. I just wanted to post it as it is likely we won't see another weenie run like this for a long time.
  6. Wurbus
    00z HRRR was pretty pathetic on the snow totals. 2-4 inches in NE TN and nothing to a trace everywhere else.
  7. Wurbus
    Ensembles have some support. I counted 7-8 that had something. Member #13 just goes absolutely bonkers.
  8. Wurbus
    I had some thunder and lightning about 15 mins ago near Karns in Knoxville.
  9. Wurbus
    I wound up with about 1 1/4 inches near the Karns area in Knoxville. Nothing on the roads or driveways, but it's a beautiful sight! Not too shabby this early in the season!
  10. Wurbus
    21z Plume backed down to 2.5 average and 3 members with close to nothing at TYS.
  11. Wurbus
    For reference to look back later. Greater than 1 inch probability :
  12. Wurbus
    03z RAP doesn't look bad either.
  13. Wurbus
    That's insane lol. It does seem like someone has the potential to see some over performing action based on some of the heavy bands the models are showing though.
  14. Wurbus
    Looks like the 00z NAM picked up totals compared to the 18z. It looked like it had some heavy bands setting up for an hour or two. I can see why the MRX is being cautious on their totals though, usually the cold chasing the moisture doesn't work out too well for the valley. Hopefully, it works out for a good chunk of the area this time though.
  15. Wurbus
    Not much change in the 18z RGEM. A little less totals on the plateau compared to the 12z run. It's just going to depend on how fast the cold arrives and where those heavy bands setup I believe.
  16. Wurbus
    GFS looks like it has a heavy burst of snow for the eastern valley and totals picked up to 2-3 inches across most of TN on the CMC tonight.
  17. Wurbus
    Thanks. I thought it might be a higher resolution than the other members, but obviously not as high as the main. I guess that explains why it went bonkers on the latest run.
  18. Wurbus
    What is the difference between the Euro Control and one of the 50 members in the Euro ensemble?
  19. Wurbus
    Go look at the Euro control for some eye candy. I counted 3-4 "big dogs" on the EPS. Most of the members didn't have much, so we need more support, but something to keep an eye on for sure.
  20. Wurbus
    Pivotal Maps has a close up of the Nashville area for the Euro.
  21. Wurbus
    That low pressure is something to watch next Thursday/Friday. I'm guessing it's going to be a cold rain based on climatology and it being mid-November, but I hope I'm wrong.
  22. Wurbus
    Picking up on Holston's post earlier, the 12z GFS is a little wetter for the valley and East TN in general. I still think a dusting to half an inch on the grass isn't out of the question for a good portion of the area. Maybe we can score some fatties for 15-30mins at least. Anything this early in November is a bonus anyways. Almost in NAM range!
  23. Wurbus
    18z GFS looks a little more like reality. Low forms a little more south than 12z and not as much moisture available. Looks like a quick changeover from rain to snow along the backside of the front, which is what normally happens around here so much more believable to me.
  24. Wurbus
    I typically don't like the rain changing to snow scenario here in the valley. Usually doesn't work out 9 out of 10 times. With that said, this cold, at least for now, seems rather impressive so I'm holding out a little hope right now. This is also the first real test for the GFS this winter, so we will see how it does.
  25. Wurbus
    I agree. Statewide back side snow for everyone! Still 6-7 days out. Weenie map below
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