Wurbus
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Everything posted by Wurbus
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GFS went back to the wonky 12z run. Low bouncing all over the place.
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That was a cold GFS run. It was below normal temps from 180 to the end of the run.
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Won't let me post a screenshot for some reason, but the GEFS mean was 6-10 inches for almost all of East TN, plateau, Nashville, and most of North TN.
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GEFS looks pretty good. Definitely some warm nose issues at the beginning of the event for the greater valley, but that is nothing new.
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I'll cash that NAV/GEM in now!
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For what it's worth (not much), NAM has the Low near Mobile at the end of it's run.
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I just created a topic for this storm since it seems we will be tracking it for the next few days and we would stop cluttering this thread.
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We have 2 camps at this moment. GFS/CMC is showing the low meandering across TN while it transfers to NC/VA and most everyone in TN gets mostly rain. The other scenario is Euro/UKmet/GEFS showing the low further south into mid-Mississippi and then transferring to around Myrtle Beach and brings all types of wintry precip from Memphis to Kingsport across the state. GFS Euro
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So Dr. No and UKMet are the only ones saying yes at this point?
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CMC is running and it doesn't look good. Low is over Memphis at 102. Looks similar to other OP models at this point
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I'll say there are more big dogs for East TN on the GEFS that I thought there was going to be. I feel like this system is truly a boom or bust system though and will likely be more of a bust for most of us.
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GFS was a mess. Mostly cold rain for everyone while the low meandered around TN for 24 hours while transferring to the coast. Extreme NE TN is about the only winners around here.
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Lots of big DAWGS (GA fan, couldn't resist) on there for someone. Should be an interesting week ahead of us again!
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Best I could do while working. Euro rolling
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Would have been perfect if that pesky warm nose would stay out of the valley! Would be nice to have 1 system to not worry about the warm nose.
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I went from a dusting to about 1/2 inch after that band went through Knoxville. We should start a petition for MRX to just issue special weather statements and no WWA or WSW.
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Been insanely busy with work today, but quick update from my location between Karns & Cedar Bluff. I have stayed all snow since it started around 1. We had a heavy burst of now for about 15 minutes earlier that turned the grass white. Then it stopped for about 10 minutes and has been a flurry/light snow since about 2pm.
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Maybe it is confusing total QPF with Snow accumulation!
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I remember a couple February's ago when this happened with rain and Knoxville got 5+ inches of rain, but can't remember this ever happening with snow. If this happens, great for mby, but hopefully we all score on this one!
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Never seen KNX get the most snow before, but Euro just hammers the greater valley.
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Not sure why Pivotal is running so slow for the GFS, but below is the TT snowfall map for the event.
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I wound up with about 2 inches on the deck. Road was slushy and lightly covered earlier, but has mostly melted once it tapered off. Still enough to cause a tree to fall somewhere in the neighborhood and shook the house this morning.
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Mostly snow with some mixing issues now. Deck is starting to get white.
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Finally just started mixing with sleet where I'm at in Knoxville.
