downeastnc

Meh I am suppose to be out of town that weekend so it will tease a hit so I have to stay home or come home early then curve OTS and miss.....

I bet I got more rain in the last 30 mins than I have gotten in the last 30 days.....

Had a tor warned cell pass north of me by 10 miles or so, couplet was decent but not hearing any reports yet of ground truth, sky is insane though lots of fast moving low swirly scud etc......

94L isnt looking horrible this afternoon, still with the big front ( for July anyways ) coming there is little threat of anything too major happening, if it somehow made it far enough north or even inshore over SC/MC it could bump rainfall totals quite a bit though.....

last few days under the excessive heat warming have not been as hot as Tues/Wed were......a bit lower dews have held the heat index to "only" 105"ish this weekend versus 110+ earlier in the week.....we have only had one sub 90 high day since June 24th and that was a 87, so almost a month straight of 90 or better for the high......however 90-91 is the average high here this time of year so we are only running +3.4 for the month.....and that will drop some after next week's below normal stretch.

Once again it died right on my doorstep.......still I will take a 10 min heavy shower over nothing and the breeze made sitting on the porch to watch the few bolts I saw worth it.

my least favorite kind of weather is the nasty crap outside right now..... 17 13:15 SW 7 10.00 Fair CLR 95 77 56% NA 110 30.07 NA

Managed to get the heat index to 100 by 9:55 this morning...... 09:55 SW 8 10.00 Fair CLR 88 77 70% NA 100 30.09 NA

Got a few showers nothing to exciting everything very pulsey and I always seem to get them on the down side of the pulses lol....

Today makes the "heatwaves" we had earlier this year look silly, give me 98/60 any day compared to this crap..heat index of 104 before 11 am currently 90/77 just brutal out there.....the upside is if the storms can fire up there could be some pretty decent storms. Surface cape pushing 6k here already lol....

Got between 2-2.5" yesterday and last night, and close to 5" for the week....I had less than a .25" the previous 20 or so days though so it averages out lol.

I dunno about less humid but highs in the upper 80's is actually below normal for MBY this time of year,so the next 3 days technically will be below normal with highs only forecasted to get to 88-89....average high is 90 here until late July when it eases back down to 89 lol....

Yeah the rain was insane, we had 9-10" in just 3 hrs at one point, my parents house is on a hill and the rain was flooding the sub level due to water running down on the back of the hill putting 2-3" of water in parts of the downstairs. The wind was only bad for 2-3 hrs with gust to the low 70 mph range. Almost all the roads and bridges where washed out, we were stuck at my parents for 2 days before being able to get home 7 miles away, when we got home we actually had power there unlike my parents. It was only the 3rd day after the storm that the water in the river reached a level that caused the entire county to lose power, then there was no power for 4-5 days....no power, no water, temps pushing 95 it sucked. The one memory that sticks with me is how the grocery stores smelled after being without power for 4 days in 90 degree heat, they where allowing people in small groups in to food and the smell of all the meats and other stuff spoiling was gag worthy.....put me off grocery stores for months.

Low level cape is pushing 3500-4000 over eastern NC and SE SC.....

Soundings are a bit worrisome for NC tomorrow......latest 3k NAM suggest some discrete supercells and then a few MCS type bowing segments over central and eastern NC.......

Again it depends on where you are plenty of severe weather all over North Carolina today, easily verified the enhanced risk....

Maybe a CC drop with that tornado warning west of Grifton for several frames....

I am going to see Hootie and the Blowfish Friday night at Walnut Creek so of course now there is storms on the Hi-Res for Friday night.....figures the first rain in a month will be the one night I dont want it....

This makes this the 5th season in a row with a named STS or TS before June 1

Make it a 5 year streak, that has to be a record number of consecutive years with a named system before June 1......

From Frazdaddy he can give better details to the where....

The first name storm has happened in April or May in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 so we have a 4 year streak of a named storm before the official start date of the season to keep alive.

Tornado damage reported in Swan Quarter....question is whether it was a waterspout or true tornado....what say you?

There are a ton of reasons to not buy in totally to the NAM, but even if its over done by half thats still a rough day.....really I think its a safe bet that at the minimum we see several broken line segments all of which will produce severe criteria wind gust over a fairly large area, it should not be hard to get some impressive winds to the surface given the wind field aloft......the real question is do we get enough instability to fire those semi discrete supes with a leeside surface low.....