downeastnc

Well if the GFS is right the eye will go right over me..........at noon..........on Monday lol.

Pretty big NW wobble currently......

Its all about the blend.......some models will be to far right, some will be to far left, that's why the NHC etc use a consensus and go down more pr less down the middle....so far the FV3 has been pretty good at being in the middle of the spread

where did you get 12Z alreadyy weather.us and meteo havent updated for me yet

Yeah if there is a bigger turn north than modeled it wont probably show up till very late in the game....which is why hurricanes suck.....though in this range you expect smaller corrections....I expect the outliers to meet in the middle so I still say Kure Beach up to Emerald Isle is still IMO the best bet for landfall....

A lot of people are reading to much into the wobbles right now,the last few frames show a more WNW motion.....the storm is suppose to still be mostly W right now and its right on the GFS track which doesnt get it to 26N until 63W so thats mostly WNW from here....but the Euro and GFS tracks dont differ that much in the short term so its not favoring the Euro by staying west right now...

Depends on where they live, if they have a well built home away from water with no trees near the house then they will be ok, though they may have to deal with a extended period of no water/power etc....also if they have medical needs etc they may want to leave.....if they live in flood prone areas of have tons of trees around the house then they need to leave. Hotels and such will fill up if they havent already in all the inland towns....most people inland die from trees falling on them in homes or vehicles and trying to cross flooded roadways....

Yeah a Cape Lookout landfall moving NW would put the absolute worse conditions over very low populated areas...versus ILM to Emerald Isle which is the opposite....

Thats the WPC consensus forecast, not Brad P's....they like the NHC blend all the tracks to get the most likely path which currently is apparently landfall over Jacksonville then up to around Wilson then Roanoke Rapids....very likely this is what happens based on current modeling....

Euro way off on intensity with its OP runs which is probably why its so south and flat compared to the others....

The blend is still the way to go.....the Euro is the southern outlier the GFS is the eastern outlier ( ICON is if we count it ) the Ukie and FV3 and CMC are all in between......so this means ILM to maybe MHX is the sweet spot. The angle is also pretty different with the Euro flat and almost WNW, where as the others weaken the ridge a bit more and are more NW...if the Ukie is similar at 12Z today to its 00Z run last night then I think the Euro will be the one to adjust closer to the others. It would end up looking like a Fran track or even right up 95 if you blended them all together.....with a stall somewhere around the NC/VA border in central NC, south central VA

GFS landfall Cape Lookout/Drum inlet then inland....honestly thats the best place for a Cat 4 to come in...least populated section of OBX and IBX there is....

yeah the almost west motion at landfall some models have it pretty odd..totally possible but if its slowing down like the NHC has usually that means its turning north, I mean it wouldnt slow down to turn more west right? West would mean more ridging and should maintain the speed not slow it down....or maybe I am just overthinking it. The ICON which was the last hold out with the OTS solution came back to a landfall and stall this run though its out over the sounds/IBX.....

Yeah the potential area that could see hurricane force gust from this storm is ridiculous.....

yeah that was kinda odd at first glance with the difference in strength....but then look at the timing change and how slow it moves right at landfall.....also keep in mind there is gonna be a strong 1030 mb ridge off NE and a 950-970 mb tropical low in SE NC that should mean the N and E sides quite far from the center are gonna have winds a lot stronger than you would typically in a rotting system...and that will persist for hrs and hrs if the storm stalls.....

GFS coming west a bit might be a landfall should at least get Hatteras....

That 140 is practically onshore thats rough right there.....we are talking Hugo/Andrew/Charley type territory there.....seriously rare company.

yeah I meant inland more so than the coast as places all over the Cape Fear region gusted over 110-120 in Fran.....there was a few 130+ on some weather stations down there and even a 140 something as well I think right? I know they are not counted in the official gust.....

Yep this is the most often overlooked thing the center is just that the center, TS force winds will be 150-200 miles or more even from the center......by Wed night the beaches will already be pushing TS conditions....

The thing with these tracks like this is the gradient between the strong ridge and the cane really beef up the NE side well away from the center.....the peak wind gust in Fran were 50-100 miles northeast of track...i went thru the same mess with Fran we gusted 100+ and we really were not expecting more than 50-60 due to the track being farther away. Then when you consider Fran was "only" 115 mph cane when she hit and this thing has the potential to be 125-140ish......ugh......then it stalls and rots...ugh again...its almost like it has to end up OTS because this is like the worst case scenario we always talk about happening one day....... and now it looks like that day is this Thursday and that cant really be happening cause this is what we always talk about but never believe will actually happen....

FV3 has actuaslly been crazy consistent the last 5 runs

The Euro ens are conditional to the strength of the storm though.....all the ens that take her to central SC have her as a Cat 1/2 for the next 2-3 days. The Euro ens that take her to Cat 3/4 over the next day end up Myrtle to Morehead....the Ukie shifted north considerably over the last day....CMC came back north for what its worth and the FV3 version of the GFS has hit basically the same spot in NC 5 runs in a row.....the only misses are the GFS and Icon and they are both east offshore barely.... At this point there is tons of agreement that the center will cross between the SC/NC border and MHX moving WNW or NW into interior NC....the ridge to the NE will also make the NE side brutal...reminds me a lot of Fran the center was 75-80 miles SW of us and we still gusted 100+ and she was a 115 mph cane...this one is liable to be 125-140.....seriously and without trying to sound all alarmist as it stands this is about as worse case a scenario NC has seen ever. A large steady state Cat 3/4 with 20-30 mile wide eye slamming into the south beaches headed NW towards Triangle and Triad....doesnt get much worse that that for NC. Still though there could be enough variance in the strength and location of the ridge to move the landfall point around but probably not more than 50 or so miles either way.....the models just probably dont have a large scale feature that wrong in the 2-3 day range....

Ukie 12Z today headed WNW comes in goes between Fayetteville and Goldsboro, wouldnt matter though that kind of hit would give 100 mph gust or better for almost all of eastern NC inland to RDU and the coast well ....especially with the strong ridge to the NE.....

Its not really 5 days out since hurricanes are not single dots on a map, by dawn Thurs conditions at the coast would be nearing TS force and going down hill dramatically and by Thurs evening the entire eastern half of NC would be experiencing TS conditions with cane conditions moving ashore.....that means folks along the coast have less than 4 days at this point assuming the timing is correct....

where are you?