downeastnc

Pretty big eye and looks to be strengthening on the front side as it hits, Josh was in Hualien City not sure if he moved north or not, the last obs had gust to 89 mph there , pressure was 968mb and the worse of it is still a hr or two away....just gusted to 100

The number of tornados we had this year from Jan 1 to June 1st indicated that we would be very likely to have a landfalling TC this season in NC. The total number of tornados in 2014 is still not confirmed but several tornados I know occurred are not listed as official but the total was around 30 which would put 2014 in the top tier so after last night we have had a landfalling TC in 6 of the 7 years we have had 30 or more tornados by June 1st....

Since we are officially at the cut off point we used to make these list I thought I would give a update, based on the numbers out there the number of tornados so far is in the mid to upper 20's and possibly right at 30 but a lot of these are unconfirmed reports of tornados etc. so a firm working number is hard to find ATM. That said with the above numbers of 25-30 tornados so far this year means we fall into the above average chance of seeing a landfalling TC in NC. If we have had 30 (unofficially we have had 28 ) then 5 out of 6 years with that many ended with a landfalling TC in NC......however and interestingly the one year we had 30+ tornados and no landfall we were in a EL Nino which we are apparently in or heading into now...... If you take all years that had a landfalling TC in NC and average all of them the average number of tornados in a year with a landfall is 28 which is again right about where we are for the year. So again all indicators strongly suggest a higher than normal chance of a landfalling TC in NC this year.....with the El Nino being the only caveat. the last few years have proven pretty reliable since this thread first started 2011 had a insanely high number of tornados well over 30 and we had Irene 2012 had 17 and Beryl was technically a depression then a post tropical system with winds of 40mph over the NC coast so that's iffy and we haven't been counting depressions and haven't really considered post/sub/extra tropical systems and how they factor in especially since the criteria used to determine these things has evolved and gotten more precise over the last 20 years or so. 2013 we had 8 tornados and that matches the average of tornados we have for years without landfalls so that is exactly what we would have expected last year.

Going to bump this thread to make it easier to keep track of how many tornados we have this year, since we do pretty good about listing confirmed ones in threads I was hoping folks would also include any confirmed tornados this year in this thread. The numbers in 2011 pointed to us getting hit and we had Irene , last year we barely had any tornados and obviously no hits from last years putrid TC season. This year we have had 3 confirmed that I know of all yesterday 2 in Roberson and 1 in Wayne, there was also the Beaufort hit but I checked and it was Dec 26th so it wont count on this years cycle....if there was another one I missed this year let me know here thanks.

Cant say we didnt warn ya........

In the main Atlantic hurricane thread on the main forum I had seen several years thrown out there as analogs for this years cane season......two of the more common ones were 1996 and 1999 which if you lived in NC are years we got smacked about quite a bit. So the other day Shaggy looked up those years and searched for severe weather to see if they had active severe weather springs or not and to see what those years had. Interestingly enough 4-15-96 had a tornado outbreak in NC then strangely enough 4-15-99 also had a small outbreak then of course we all know what happened 4-16-2011 So while I dont really hold to much faith in analogs I was surprised to see this and overall both 96 and 99 were very good severe years with lots of springtime storm activity all across the SE and North Carolina. I will however be a believer if NC gets hit by several hurricanes this year lol......