downeastnc

the stalling crap is the worst as it makes it hard to know what to expect .....timing is everything if that stall happens 50-150 miles later she plows right on in as a Cat 3/4 and gets well inland.....I mean do the models really have the skill to be that precise with the timing of the stall?

stalling out east of ILM and south of Lookout....would be so bad for the beaches....

Its pretty darn east so far thru 42 gonna have to stall and take a real hard left to get ILM.....

Yeah the angle is interesting, and the eye is going to be huge so that pretty much puts Emerald Isle to Topsail under the gun.....and that's why even small changes will matter to many of us.....if it goes 50 miles further north before the turn then that a big deal for me....if it turns 50 miles sooner that would put Myrtle/ILM much more in play...there will be no way the models can get that right so it will be now casting time as the eye gets inshore....

Sometimes the models wanna do these stall or loops and they just get it wrong.....remember this gem during Matthew, where for several days the models had him looping back the Bahamas then 24 hrs out they dropped it and by 8am Sun he was just east of Hatteras moving NE OTS...that a big track change for inside of 24 hrs lol......not saying that's the case here at all but I always get cautious when they do stalls/loops and course reverses etc....

no.....the majority of models all landfall on or north of ILM

That was a decent NE jump at 48 hrs...honestly surprised me thought it might be going to end up Jacksonville/MHX

Euro a good bit east at 48......close to the 12Z ukie track

Ukie landfall and two plots 12hrs or so apart after landfall...... 12 hrs after landfall 24 hrs after landfall

Ukie hardly moves right after landfall...this would be worse IBX sound/river surge ever if it verifies....

yeah they are jumping all over now...its frustrating they were all so nice and clustered 24 hrs ago lol......

yep.....real issue is going to be speed though......stalling systems are the worst...but the chances a strong Cat 3 low 4 hitting keep going down as the storm slows in the approach....the approach angle will matter to....with a large eye its gonna be a big impact for a lot of coast....then the angle and speed it moves inland will impact who gets what winds.....the only thing I am sure of at this point is to much rain.

when the models run the ridging stronger its gonna be a bit faster.....exactly how the ridge is aligned matters too....gonna be one of those cases were short term wobbles and such can change the LF spot by 20-30 miles especially with a large eye....still shows the stall and rot over central/eastern NC....

Its frustrating cause now this stupid stall is gonna make getting this right hard on the models.....when and how fast it stalls will matter a lot obviously....the models dont have the skill to pinpoint it at all either at least not to within 50-75 miles....its going to come down to nowcasting the center as it approaches.....

ICON still stubbornly east of the rest ( well except GFS ) in over Cape Lookout moving NNW slowly....

Not much change on 12Z guidance.....still has the stall/turn

Meh she will be fine thats not that far from me....as long as she has no trees near the house.....if it does stall and turn west she might not even get winds to hurricane force in gust....if it doesnt stall though it will be rough lol....

The thing is this stall and hard west turn is one of those things where the models really struggle....Flo is gonna come charging up from the SE and its gonna take a heck of a ridge to stop and turn her....where, when and even if the stall/turn happens is something they will struggle with which sucks...if its 6-10 hrs later than currently forecast it will have huge implications...its never easy here in NC when it comes to these damn storms....why cant the models get a solution and just stick with it.

The NHC uses the TVCN for their forecast track its a consensus of the models.....below is the consensus track and verification so far....this is why the NHC has its cone and ath where it does....obviously as the models move around this will too but I doubt we see them move the landfall spot more than 50 miles either way at this point.....there landfall point will shift west 10-15 miles at 11am.....

yeah I cant help but think back to Matthew and how ALL the models had him stalling and looping in this range and then he didnt.....

The storm needs to come to the Euro then cause so far the track is north of all the recent Euro runs and the Euro is performing worse than most the others....so far...also the storm appears to be moving more NW than anything right now though its tough to tell with the ugly eye but i imagine the separation to the Euro runs is just getting bigger...the FV3 has been very consistent its landfall point hasnt moved more than 10-20 miles run to run for the last 6-8 runs at least.....GFS doing very well so far with track verification...surprisingly enough....still gotta take the blend of the two and thats about where the NHC has it.....the models are doing a bit of back and forth the last day and that probably will continue but overall ILM to MHX is where this likely ends up....

Its right over Jacksonville.....this is about as bad as it get as it gives the entire coast between Cape Lookout and Cape Fear inner core conditions though ILM would not get any surge really since the flow would be offshore....this is a horrible run for Jacksonville to Bogue Banks...it would also put 10-12 ft of water way up the Neuse and Tar.....

hard to say....on the current NHC track the center goes 50-60 miles SW of MBY so it will close to that for you as well....and thats the center of the center if its a 20-30 mile wide eye we are talking more like 40 miles to the inner eyewall....I have a hard time believing I only get 56 mph wind gust when a Cat 3 is sitting over Jacksonville with us within 50 miles of the core..... it depends on the structure of the storm too, also the gradient between the cane and the ridge will be a player on the NE side.....every storm is different though....Fran's center was 75-80 miles SW of us here and we gusted to 100 in that one, and I was in the SW eyewall of Isabel and never gusted over 55.

Yeah figures the closer we get the more cloudy the forecast gets.....just need it to not stall so much get in and get out do not need a rotting tropical low sitting over eastern and central NC for 2-3 days ugh....

Not really...the 18Z and 00Z are almost the same landfall spot 00Z maybe 20 miles more SW...it probably landfall in North Topsail within 20-25 miles of the official NHC track....its moving a bit more north though than the official track...the 18Z was more right into Jville... 18Z 00Z