downeastnc

This is the control run and there were still at least 10 ens with warning criteria events in MBY and over half the ens had a trace or better

I wouldn't put to much stock in any individual snow map in this range they are going to be all over the place the next 3-4 days.....personally if this thing is going to trend away or get to warm etc I need it to go ahead and do that now....what will suck is it showing significant snow till 72 hrs out then trending away that would be typical though.

I guarantee that snow map and Euro solution is gonna change many times over the next 6-10 days.....same with the GFS, no point in worrying about where a R/S line might setup in this range, hell I am happy just to see a storm.....lets just hope the models keep slamming that cold in here, thats the key, we need good cold in place and reinforcements to keep the storm track to the south.

Really its right where we want it in this time frame, weak and suppressed....that last thing you want this far out is to be the bullseye, especially if you live in central or eastern NC....Euro had 9-10 warning criteria panels for central and eastern NC.....like this one, just need it to shift another 75 miles SE

Video from Columbus MS looks pretty bad

James Spann saying debris up to 14k.......

There is a tornado doing damage in and around Columbus, very strong TDS now.....

TDS over Columbus, MS .....

GFS is just suppressed which is kinda where you want it this far out....really need the Euro to pick up on it though to think this is gonna be a legit threat

Yeah was in the 60-70's the week leading up to it too.....we couldn't stick a yard stick anywhere and not get 20-25" on it and the Ford Maverick my dad drove was completely covered...we also couldn't leave out the front door the snow was drifted 5-6 ft deep on that side of the house....probably never see anything like it again....PGV officially had 16" but I feel that is way to low.... Models do seem to like Mar 3-5ish.....and there seems to be some agreement that it will be colder too....

Late Feb and early March snows are rare here in eastern NC but the #1 and #2 snowfalls of my life have been Feb 24-25th and Mar 1-2......the fact the airmass could be very cold is interesting as the thing about Mar 1980 that sticks out as much as the insane snow totals was the fact it the temps were in the mid teens during the day while snow just dumped....obviously the chances of such a event this year are slim, but I always get a tiny bit more amped for something when it pops up for this timeframe.....

He also had a 2 months medical leave early in 2018, he also mentions "personal challenges" which many times means some kind of substance or alcohol issues maybe....either way its his business and he will be missed. Now we have lost Skip Waters and Greg is leaving so there are not many old timers left.

Master peak snow totals its all a front end thump totals.....still a big jump from the 00Z Then there is the #1 Euro Ens panel at least thats how its numbered on Weather.US that I linked before it holds the big dog and obviously has the low moving east and buries almost all of NC...would love to see this pan out....actually it didn't it looked like the above but a bit better....

Still running only have through the 13th so far.... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019021212/799-w-396-n/temperature-f/20190212-1600z.html

The Euro ens have a few big hits for NC and several for VA, hopefully we see more and more ens panels showing bigger hits going forward...I am sure 99% of the NC/VA folks would lock this panel in lol.....

Now this is cold....Staples WI right now.... wind chill -64 lol eff that..... Fair -33°F -36°C Humidity 60% Wind Speed NW 18 G 23 mph Barometer 30.14 in Dewpoint -42°F (-41°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Wind Chill -64°F (-53°C) Last update 29 Jan 8:16 pm CST

Yeah any other time that batch of precip would slide right up over us here in eastern NC.....instead it will stay 50-100 miles east of us......

This is really really close to being something special....just need .25-.50" more QPF could easily end up being a fairly widespread 3-6" type event for east central NC especially east of I-95...

12Z nam sounding is close enough that I will take my chances and this is without better rates, what we need is this thing to shift west another 100 miles.....or amp up and get that NW precip shield growth...

06Z Rgem looks good temps in the mid 30's has the low much closer and moving more NNE has precip way further inland.....starting to think this could happen.....

This is how it happens for us though.....hinted at in the long range, poorly modeled in the mid term then comes back in the 1-2 day range....still need some big changes in the models today, need it a bit cooler at the surface but honestly if we can get heavy enough precip we should do ok this far inland....

temps are 35-40 at the surface....but its plenty cold aloft.....would need rates to be high enough to overcome.....light precip wont do it....

Feb 2014 there was a sound enhanced band more or less, the snowfall was pretty widespread but the heavy band was localized, I had right at 5" with that one....

Depends on where you live I suppose the Euro was great for all of us eastern SC/NC folks.......

I would rather the models be wishy washy with the storms etc, 9/10 times if the models consistently run a storm for MBY for days and days in a row especially in the 5-10 day range once we get inside 2-3 days it goes to hell......but if they don't pick up on it good till inside 5 days they tend to actually pan out much better.....I am pretty confident there will be several legit threats for many places in the SE after mid next week......