The way things look man, I would side with the lower end of things... The Euro has been very stubborn and consistent... Just to much dry air and to much positive tilt as well.
The trough continues to trend more positive and the dry air is shearing out the moisture. It still has enough for light amounts but if this keeps trending like it's going, it's gonna be a dud unfortunately
I hate to say it but this thing is meeting up with that dry air over head. That's what the EURO has been showing for a while now... Still a decent storm for some but you can see when it's so amped and then it runs into a brick drywall in the Carolinas and VA
Definitely still a decent run of the NAM. However, that Graf Model does not look good. It looks very very light like the EURO. Unfortunately the euro could be on to something. It has stuck to it's guns.
Finally catching up on the posts and the model runs.... Been real busy today..... Everything is looking great so far. Love the trends! Still going in the right direction!