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Posts posted by BornAgain13
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To bad its the long range NAM. It actually looks pretty good. The vort is not flat or strung out, almost neutral tilt... who knows where it would have went...
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Just now, olafminesaw said:
Columbia to Charlotte to Fayetville could be in for a big time storm for their standards
That would actually be funny to me cause Brad Panovich this morning pretty much Said it just isn't much there.
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GFS is on its own right now unfortunately. Unless things shift today or tomorrow, the Euro will have had the right idea...
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It does seem like this winter that we usually have 1 or 2 models show a good hit between 5-7 days out. And then it goes poof... I guess it's to progressive of a pattern and the systems just stay to far south and have no chance to kreep northward.
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I guess the GFS isn't the King after all.... the Euro has been showing a suppressed look the whole time....
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Most guidance shows a flat and suppressed system. Even the GFS is trending that way..
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By my untrained eye, the 18z Euro was setting good for Sunday. Someone else with more experience can elaborate.
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Would love for the GFS to be right but I really hate the Euro isn't on board.
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13 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:
for which day night?
Sunday/Sunday night
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6z GFS still has a major ice storm this morning... 0z euro jumped on board with a little more snow/ice. We will see how this continues to go. UK still has it. The cmc is still not there...
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Guessing the EPS wasn't hitting on much?
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What's encouraging, and the take away from 12z, is most guidance is showing something wintry around Sunday/Monday time frame... 12z CMC is more suppressed but we will see...
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12z EURO has a similar set up as GFS, just not near the moisture and it's not amped. BUT... their is a signal there
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I put a lot more stock in the GFS since the upgrade.... whether it shows winter weather or not... its clearly better than it used to be...
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23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:
The long range overall is looking warmer and warmer
And just like this time, as it gets closer, it probably won't be as warm as modeled.
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Yep. 6z gfs is a Major ice storm next Sunday for the piedmont.
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Taken verbatim, the 0z ICON is a Major Winter Storm for the Carolinas on up into Virginia. Snow to the north and ICE to the south.
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Anybody who has the precip type maps or totals for the icon can show that better.
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0z ICON with another run of a Major Winter Storm next Sunday for the Carolinas and Virginia. Snow on the northern fringe changing to ICE
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022
in Southeastern States
Posted
The NAM was on its way to being a decent storm somewhere... ending the run on a neutral tilt plowing east...