To bad its the long range NAM. It actually looks pretty good. The vort is not flat or strung out, almost neutral tilt... who knows where it would have went...
It does seem like this winter that we usually have 1 or 2 models show a good hit between 5-7 days out. And then it goes poof... I guess it's to progressive of a pattern and the systems just stay to far south and have no chance to kreep northward.
6z GFS still has a major ice storm this morning... 0z euro jumped on board with a little more snow/ice. We will see how this continues to go. UK still has it. The cmc is still not there...
What's encouraging, and the take away from 12z, is most guidance is showing something wintry around Sunday/Monday time frame... 12z CMC is more suppressed but we will see...