Frog Town

It's back and 12Z was a juicy run.

0Z and 12Z Euro's are almost carbon copy's, weird.

Must be the new upgrade! I'll take it.

More like whatever drug the GFS is on. 11 days out...lock it in.

If I'm not mistaken, the following Winter was epic, I believe. I know 76'-77' was one of the coldest, but I can't remember is 75'-76' was as cold.

Hmmm, so logically, if we are in a cool phase but warm, then we will cool when we head into a warm phase. Sounds pretty straight forward. In all seriousness though, a few years back, maybe 2019-20 or '18/'19, all the local Mets sounded the alarm that things were lining up for a very cold and snowy Winter. I think it was end of November/early December which is a pretty safe time to make a Winter call. I've never seen Toledo Mets put it all on the line like this and it was pretty unanimous. Which ever winter it was, it ended being a bust. All this to say, I'm not overly concerned with the warm signals we are getting. If anything, it brings comfort knowing that I won't be disappointed.

Looking at the pacific currently, November is gonna be chilly. Almost a complete replication of November 2013. Not saying it's gonna stick like 2013-2014, but that sure would be nice.

I know it's early but it's hard to ignore how similar the pacific is currently, along with the recurving typhoons, to the fall of 2013....Just sayin.

It's starting to get very frustrating as we enter another neutral ENSO during the wrong time of the year. Here in the Midwest we've had a cooler than normal Summer only for it to flip during the fall/Winter and average above average with La Nina. It's been since the 2013-2014 that this has been the case. Here's your shitty Winter Forecast, early and for free.

~2" here in Toledo..so far

Same! Really indescribable and surreal.

Yup

Storms and Cold back on the docket for the last week in March with potential big dog stuff. Curious if it will stick, or just smoke and mirrors...

I remember reading and researching climate change/global warming as a kid. The one thing that has stuck with me was the talk of drastic/wild temperature swings much like we are seeing. Is it really even a debate anymore?? I think the wild extremists that talked of oceans rising 10ft and ridiculous temps muddled the waters and created a bunch of skeptics and conspiracy theorists. Which are now grown adults with very loud Social Media speakers.. Probably the wrong thread but Winter's is over for the foreseeable future.

Was it late '16 or '17 that had the late Feb really warm spell. I thought it was '16

Late February is looking very late '98ish, another very strong Nino year.

Quick and efficient transfer I guess. Does seem kind of odd as that is our bench mark..

Considering starting a thread...JK. But this would be amazing.

Same

See you guys mid Fall 2024. Been real but now I gotta focus on my taxes and other less interesting things.

That HUGE ridge that try's to torch the middle of the country first week of FEB get's crushed by what looks like a west based -NAO forming. Kind of weird set up but seems to suppress everything south but no much cold air to work with.

I traversed Mt. Whitney in the Sierra Nevada last August and we were dealing with a ton of left over snow from the previous event the Sierra Nevada last winter. A lot of the locals had some crazy stories of being buried for days.

Sure enough surface temps of 30-31 did us all in. Glazed up everywhere and was an easy call with schools this morning. Just so different than the normal ice storm set-up(NE dry feed, 3M temps below freezing, etc.) Really made me second guess the eventual outcome. Thanks for chiming in though.

If my temp is 34 in Toledo and dewpoint is at 32, we've essentially hit our wet bulb max, correct. Not much more room for evaporational cooling is there? HRRR seems to be verifying too cold.

In Toledo and the temp is pushing 37. Not sure if there is warmer push than modeled, but it's gonna need to cool off significantly.