Frog Town

And this means??

The pattern yells cold, not the models. Look at analogs with this set up in the past. '77, '94, '14...

That's what I'd typically think, but with the TPV heading this way, I think things end up a bit more suppressed/pressure gradient/windier than normal. Every storm in 2013-14 ended up this way and we will have a very similar set-up(big picture wise) next weekend.

You definitely don't want to be in the jackpot at this time frame.

Starting a thread is like buying a lottery ticket. You just never really know what you're gunna get! However, with the Lottery currently over a Billion, a thread this January could be a big payout!

Just give it time! We've got the cold within 7 days now and it looks to last. The storms will do what they do but it looks better than it did in early DEC. Things are gonna look A LOT different around here come mid January.

It's nice to see our local offices mentioning what's been in LaLa land for weeks now. Beginning of a colder pattern change late in the period The entire long wave trough will lift out of the region on Sunday, cooling things down some. The cooldown for Sunday and Monday does not look to be too significant for this time of the year, except coming off of the 50 degree temps for the weekend. This is because we will be in between the two branches of the upper jet. We are looking at a more significant cool down that may begin as early as next Tuesday, and more likely just beyond. This is something that the long term model ensembles have been showing for quite a while. We will see another active southern stream system come out of the desert SW, and a stronger northern stream system diving in from the NW. Lots of details to be ironed out yet how the two branches will interact and phase with each other. The net result though looks to be a colder pattern as we enter the New Year. &&

It doesn't get good until hour 330...LOL. What is wrong with us.

No ZZZzzzzz's yet from you know who so we got that going for us.

This was yesterday's 12Z Euro eye candy for the east coast, lol. That would be reeaally nice!

Teleconnections say No to Upper Midwest cutters and SE ridge. I'd imagine the models will smooth out but I wouldn't trust the runs that far out at this point.

Great memory! For some reason I can't recall this one very well and Christmas Eve 2002 keeps coming to mind, which was a bit NW of this one.

More light for us to enjoy the Winter landscape that hopefully unfolds..

Much appreciated. I'm a Math/Physics teacher and can piece together a lot of the microphysics at it relates to your craft. You are very good and teaching this stuff. You ever consider it?

Awesome insight! Thanks. Is this MJO dependent?

These were my college years in SE Michigan and it sucked! I remember it all ending in January of '99 with the Blizzard.

Definitely happing just east of here on radar but maybe it's below the reflectivity locally.

I would argue this is more of an MJO and teleconnection thing.

This is all good stuff...

I have a few Dr. acquaintances that think M.D. stands for Major Deity, so I see where you're coming from...

Good to have you back Stebo! Nice changes in the ENS regarding Winters return around the new year, no?

Fingers crossed in the vanishing zone! Models have been back and forth with said confluence. Today's 12Z Euro says less of it!

Back on topic... Pretty big shifts in the MJO today, for the better.

Face value, yes, but haven't they been missing the cold more than 7-10 out??

12Z Euro is a step in the right direction for wintry type weather through christmas for the majority of the sub. Again, the warm keeps getting pushed down the road.