Frog Town

I guess the 12Z Euro is the nail, or the last straw, for us Northern hopefuls! Ohio and Indiana deserves this though.

I was just gonna post that DTX Discussion. I thought it was an in-depth analysis vs. GRR's one or two sentences, LOL.

Is the screaming pacific Jet(similar to last year at this time) really expected to flood the country with pacific air until early January?

An exact repeat of that is what it looks like.

I'm getting this weird feeling that things are shaping up exactly like last year. It's almost a Deja Vu feeling. Ripping pacific jet, signs of Strong El nino, etc.... Many Winter Forecasts are identical to last year at this time. .....Anyone else getting that feeling?

Soooo, what you're saying is this cool November will flip a warm DEC-JAN-FEB, like what typically happens with a strong El NiNO??

Do tell!

Not quite in the Nam's wheel house yet.

I truly believe that Winter (13-14') was a once in 50 year event. I would be amazed to see something like that come together again, in my lifetime.

Not gonna lie, I've been hoping for this thread to started as well! Way too early to get excited about any particular prognostication, but the CDC's outlook gets me excited about my first Great Lakes Christmas Ale during the first flakes!!

From an anomaly standpoint, does this heat wave extreme compare to the Arctic Outbreak with had this past January?? It's a windchill vs. Heat Indices thing but I was curious to see what everyone else thinks?? Also, interesting to note that this heat wave will come and go in three days much like the Arctic Outbreak did. Went from a high of -10's to a high of 58 in 3 days.

Well, DTX pretty much much sums it up for much of the sub forum......talk about a rock and hard spot, lol. Relentless pattern of anticyclonic wave breaking over the NPAC & CWB over the NATL domain will continue for the duration of the extended period courtesy of a retracted Pacific jet and active STJ extending across the USA. This will, at least, result in stagnation of the current pattern but will more likely favor some degree of longwave amplification accompanied by a tendency for retrogression of the mean storm track when energy occasionally ejects from the western US trough. The forecast is therefore one that migrates toward increasingly mild outcomes with time. The best chances for snow will require suppression from the polar jet which will in turn limit amplification potential and subsequent impact potential while deeper cyclones will be far more likely to track west of the area and bring snow-mix-ra transitions. The first manifestations of this tendency are Sunday`s suppressed low-impact snow potential (discussed above) followed by 12z NWP depictions of a warmer STJ-influenced system lifting west of the CWA mid-week next week.

The take away here as we transition into a favorable MJO postilion is the storm track will be favorable for many in the sub. With the Cold being a big part of Phase 8, i'd bet on the suppressed storm track vs. a wild cutter IMHO.

Seems a little premature to me. I don't doubt a little warm up coming next week, but that has Zero support accept those two wishy-washy indicators.

Up in Toledo we averaged about 8". I really feel for you guys down south. I can't tell you how many times I was sitting in the same position as you, only to watch the whole thing fall apart and hit Michigan. It's a crappy feeling.

12Z NAM still has a good shot for the mid Ohio crew. If anything, it's bumped north a skosh, to get NW Ohio/ SE MI into a little more Deformation snows.

I remember hearing someone say "If you can smell the rain, you'll get the heavy snow" Seems to be the case in Franklin County.

Careful what you wish for, LOL. That's when you really get screwed.

February was the real torcher that winter. Referring to '11/'12

Did you happen to eat green brownies??