Frog Town

Sorry for you all of you in the Western sub, but for us to score(outside of a bowling ball), the 12Z is what we would need for the Eastern Sub to score. Postively-tilted/east/weak-er.

watch how irony plays out with this one.....

Dude must have been abducted by aliens. I think everyone is once( or 10) bitten twice shy around here.

Anyone else taking up drinking to deal with this weather pattern? The struggle is real.

Yup....about 2 hours earlier than most guidance saw. Oh well, such is this winter....no back bone.

HRRR was picking up on that but it seems to be filling in

Not much noise from the Ohio crew but we are on the fringes of our first legit snow fall of the season. Not what I pictured for our first snow storm but I'll take it. I like how things are looking upstream. My guess is we end up with 6"+ in NW Ohio.

On the door step of this, the King, and we are complaining?? LOL. Man, what a bunch of spoiled brats. Pertaining to the Northern Sub folks of course. I"m at the southern edge of this and would gladly take half of it.

I feel like he said it last year 18-19 also

So with it bumping east and taking a track towards Cleveland, wouldn't the Axis of snow shift more towards SE MI/NW Ohio? Or is this a situation where there is just a lack of cold air for that to occure

Just a matter of perspective then? Only get an argument like this on a weather forum, LOL. We are just a bunch of nerds(Never.Ending.Radical.Dudes)

Agreed. Weird, it's almost like it mimicked part of the run.

Definitely some serious changes coming in the next 7-10 days.

Seasonal trends would take this thing south and east, as every other pan handle hooker has done since early November. While it's current track is favorable for the heart of the sub, seems too good to be true with how this season has gone. But I guess it's gotta change, and go against the grain at some point.....

Agreed dude! What gives Zzzz man??

Approaching an Inch here in Toledo. More than I expected.

We're all jealous of your plowing issues. Poor guy.

with the trough centered more west, the storm track should be more north imho

Seriously looking like 11-12' redux. Now that the warm blob in the NE pacific has cooled and the polar vortex has tightened up, the writing is on the wall. Just goes to show how many things went right for 13-14' and how rare that set up was.

Yeah, but it's finally starting to show some cold at the end of it's run. That's a first.

Perhaps this is the "Calm" before the storm??

but better than this...

Is it just me, or has the 12Z Euro totally change it's town from Christmas on??

A slight glimmer of hope from some nice DTX analysis this Sunday am.........I know, I know....I'm grabbing on straws. So far, the satellite representation (including a decent look from GOES-15 in this fairly data void satellite area) of the lead vorticity spokes pivoting around northern upper low suggest this energy may be digging a bit sharper southwest into the Northwest Territories. If the trend were to persist, a slightly deeper mean upper trough would result and the odds that some light deformation snow from the southern system would lift into southern parts of the forecast area would increase. Given this, will not abandon the idea of some light accumulating snow over far southern areas completely despite a definite consolidation of most model solutions in that direction.

I can't tell you how many times I sat in the bulls eye of a snow storm, only to watch it trend north at the last minute. Hmmm...Curious??