Frog Town

No such thing!

The fly in the ointment... Nice analysis from GRR: Impact of Tropical Storm Rai (west Pacific) on our weather for next week As it turns out, Tropical Storm Rai, in the western Pacific is heading due west toward the Philippine Islands. It should become a typhoon by this evening. Why to we care about this in Michigan? As it turns out, it will have a major impact our weather for the next week. What this does is it stalls the MJO on the edge of phase 6 to phase 7 since in phase 7. In phase 7 the area near the Philippines should be dry. That changes the entire northern hemispheric wave train. It will delay the arrives of the really cold air till after Christmas (we need a solid phase 7 for that cold air to get here). This means largely zonal flow for our area for the next week. That will prevent any strong pushes of cold air and also not allow the much phasing with the next two storm systems that follow the Thursday event.

It's out there but I love that look. Not gonna get too excited yet.

Too early to make that call. Not saying it won't, just too early. I'll put a Christmas Ale on it that that the pattern next week makes a massive adjustment towards cold by this Thursday.

Cold and dry to you is totally different for them with the Lake to their Left... Plus, Cold and dry is a step in the right direction.

True statement right there. My point is, it's the first time I've read a NWS discussion that was optimistic about a pattern change. That's enough for me to get excited at least.

Man! C'mon people. It's gonna get cold an snowy in time for the holidays which is the opposite of what we've been dealing with and you all sound like a bunch of whinners, lol. "This is the jolliest bunch of A-holes this side of the nut house."

Finally!! Grand Rapids goes all in: - Winter makes a comeback As I wrote about yesterday the MJO goes into phase 7 later this week. That will force it to get colder and stay colder late this week and more so next week. While the models are not forecasting much snow, it has been my experience that when we stay below freezing for more than a week, it finds a way to snow. So I am thinking it will snow the week leading to Christmas. If nothing less a lot of lake effect. The ensemble means for the Canadian, GFS and ECMWF all show highs below freezing from the 20th through the 28th. Winter weather will come back.

Look at it like this. In order for most of us here to experience the Winters of Yore, we may have had to participate in World War 2?? Having the winters get warmer and more frustrating may be a small price to pay, if you know what I mean. This is how I cope.

It's happening! Finally, something to get excited about on the 12Z. That would make this current shitty December pattern worth it. I think we all suffer from Seasonal Affectiveness Disorder, but in the reverse sense.

A lot of foreshadowing going on here... Hopefully the conversation here in about 3 weeks is one where I'll crack open a Christmas Ale and hunker down for a long night of tracking something special.

Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression....and Acceptance. I'm still in the Depression stage.

I'm sure a lot our minds on this forum work this way, but here's my hope... I feel like when we are in a great snowy cold snap, there is always that background noise of pattern change and "enjoy it while it last, it's gonna warm up.." What I'm hoping to hear soon is, -EPO is coming, WPO is setting up perfectly, MJO is moving towards a great position. These are the things that I hope set us up for a nice wintry stretch to end December and last through the new year. Then it can torch all it wants.

I don't have access to the Euro sans the step up at 850, which looks interesting for much of our sub next week. Can anyone add some insight to this??

I know, I know, but what else do we have?? Hope is like water sometimes...

For all the out there.....which is all of us. Accuweather giving part of the sub some love. Thinking a lot of Colorado lows are in our future, with a tight gradient. Kind of seems like a thread the needle White Christmas, doesn't it??

Just when we've all about given up and written Winter Off, he will show up. I think we just about there so I'm getting excited.

Anyone happen to know if the Euro jumped north like all the American models did with the system early next week?

Those are amazing. Last time I saw a legit one in Toledo was during the winter of 13-14.

There are years where it just seems so easy for it to warm up and torch in the East. This year seems different, and watching the ridge continually fail to come east and mature is a good sign for us, IMHO. For whatever interconnected reason, the eastern trough doesn't want to budge, and I like it!

This thread has gone dry and lonely lately but some serious changes goin on that look mighty cold and interesting for December. Would be nice if the trough of interest shifted about 500 miles to the west but I';; take the cold and wintery feel vs. the torch that was rearing it's head previously.

12Z Euro has some serious eye candy at the end of it's run! That would be cool!

At least in the short term, the Euro keeps reloading the cold in the East. It's the trough that keeps on giving. That would be a great trend for the Winter if it kept up.

It's funny you mention that because I was banking on us getting dry slotted as we typically do. I was shocked to see us get that high as well. The sweet spot was actually progged 45 miles to our SE but ended up over us, shockingly.