Frog Town

Anyone thinking there could be a secondary low development further south?? Could explain why less moisture is making it north.

You referring to the incoming Euro?

I notice the NAM is a bit slower with the SLP at 84 hours. Would this argue towards a further East solution?

Again, you can't let the Operational(especially the GoFuS) get you down. The ENS of that model actually has the SLP going over CLE. This would still provide the Sub with an awesome storm. This should start to tighten up in about 36 hours. Patience.. Last night 18Z GFS had it over PIT

Good point, but a counter point is this is NOT a typical pattern we are entering so CLIMO is off the table so to speak.

I may be mistaken, but wasn't that 2002? I only remember cause I just bought a new house and was up all night painting.

Basically you should be happy if your state is covered in blue at this juncture.

This is still the only thing we should be looking at right now....patience, or you'll be disappointed. Carry on.

Thought this one might draw you out!

Final call time, huh? 11" imby with 50+ wind gusts along with temps crashing to single digits. Krampus is coming...

Great perspective, and insight, thank you!

Nice to have a local met rooting my area. 2017 was a cold pattern starting in early December so the robust clipper that dropped 5" in our area Christmas was nice, but to have this bigger threat a few days out this year is pretty cool as well.

Hard to argue with these stats. https://www.wtol.com/article/weather/climate-friday/white-christmas-chances-on-the-rise-for-2022-climate-change-impacts/512-6776cb3a-ea20-4fd5-bc12-b25b19c6b080

What? That looks totally normal to me....

Still think the low ends up a bit further east looking at the EPS Low cluster. Regardless we all cash in for some pre-christmas magic

The mid Ohio folks are always stuck between an aps runner or a cutter. Ya'll need a west to east bowling ball patter. This one is a nail biter for you.

I know I speak for most here when I say I don't want to see this solution hold day after day only to have it fall apart within 2 days. Not saying it will, but I feel like that has been the trend over the years.

CAD will also = Sun Shine which has been absent lately.

If we can just get something special to come in on the front end of this, we'll be golden!

Agreed! The professional insight, and pause, these guys offer is greatly appreciated.

I can't believe how depressed I get with this crappy pattern. It's like part of me is still a kid.

The only way I'll forgive this cluster #$%@ of a pattern is if we get buried Christmas Week, otherwise I'm giving up on this shitty start to the Winter.... One month down 2 to go I guess. Where the hell is the banter thread! It's never been needed more sub forum wide.

Holy crap! You weren't kidding. If I recall correctly, 2013-2014 started in a similar way. Cold was forecast then it kind of took it's time a bit, and then WHAM! November of that year had a few cold out breaks around Thanksgiving, then It was up and down with a descent snow in early December before it got epic around the holidays. We shall see..

I always thought it was cool how Grand Rapids does an extended prelude! Actually starting to get a bit excited, considering my state of mind at this time last year, staring down the barrel of december torch. "Change to colder follow next big storm This is where it gets interesting. Due to the MJO going into Phase 8, which is cold for a large part of the central and northern CONUS we are likely to get back into the deep freeze after the 6th of December. This is well supported by the ensembles of both the GFS and ECWMF. In fact the latest model runs show part of the northern Midwest into Montana with a 5 day departure from normal over 20 degrees below normal! We will need to watch this closely, this could have significant impacts on our area."