Frog Town

You mean like in the Northern Hemisphere??

The models will be behind as the EPO crashes creating a lag. Thinking this baroclinic zone ends up more near Chicago or even DTW.

Euro basically caves to more progressive GFS.

It's the catch 22 cross we bare here in NW OH. Too strong, NW trend and dry slot...Weaker and rides to our south. That track of the 12Z Euro is almost too perfect for us. Never seems to work out. Ya never do know though.

I'm out. See you all in February! I'll probably be a much more effective person without the distraction that exciting winter weather is to me.

I'm out. See you all in February! I'll probably be a much more effective person without the distraction that exciting winter weather is to me.

I feel like last year, at about this time, everyone was in the Acceptance stage of grief (Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance). Then, low and behold, February comes.

Good news at this point is the news can't get any worse...

I remember having thunderstorms Christmas Eve 1982 coming out of midnight mass, but didn't remember the temps on Christmas day that year....I was 7

The Euro seems to think that Winter will come back Mid-January and beyond...

That lead to 70's in February in 98'!! Not good...

Most models have MJO in entering phase 8 by January 10-ish, albeit low amplitude so don't expect it to last long.

Of course, the cold is gone and the Euro sends a storm to Cleveland putting my area in the perfect spot for a snow storm if there was any cold around. Good lord!

Nail in the coffin for the NW Ohio/SE Mich peeps...sorry. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Latest radar, 0z model guidance, and surface observations suggest that we are perhaps entering a perceived "lull" in the precipitation along the arctic front, especially across NW OH this evening as the upper-jet energy begins to arrive across the Lower OH Valley which will lead to explosive cyclogenesis late tonight into Friday. This may lead to lower snowfall totals and overall impacts across NW OH. However, we are currently watching an area of precipitation across SW OH that continues to strengthen, noted by multiple surface observations of moderate to heavy snow at times. This area of precipitation will work its way north and east into the region later tonight in conjunction with the strong, arctic front. This will be the area to watch for any significant impacts with regards to snowfall rates and/or blowing snow overnight and into the morning hours.

Nail in the coffin for the NW Ohio/SE Mich peeps...sorry. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Latest radar, 0z model guidance, and surface observations suggest that we are perhaps entering a perceived "lull" in the precipitation along the arctic front, especially across NW OH this evening as the upper-jet energy begins to arrive across the Lower OH Valley which will lead to explosive cyclogenesis late tonight into Friday. This may lead to lower snowfall totals and overall impacts across NW OH. However, we are currently watching an area of precipitation across SW OH that continues to strengthen, noted by multiple surface observations of moderate to heavy snow at times. This area of precipitation will work its way north and east into the region later tonight in conjunction with the strong, arctic front. This will be the area to watch for any significant impacts with regards to snowfall rates and/or blowing snow overnight and into the morning hours.

Despite this thing falling apart all around me, I will see i've never seen my barometer drop like this as I sit directly underneath the bombing cyclone here in Toledo..

All Hi-Res models are seriously drying things out for SE MI. Could just be me, but lots of wholes. Globals aren't doing this. Curious?

HRR seems like it's trying to strengthen the low in Western Ohio. That would slow things down a bit and increase snow a bit for the western Ohio and SE MI crew.

I would typically by more disappointed with the amount of snow forecasted, but considering it's gonna torch by next weekend, I really could care less.

Well said! May set my alarm as well. Got lots of gifts to wrap anyways.

The December and January prior to the Blizzard of 78 was mild

For those in NW Ohio and SE Michigan, the 18Z Euro is the answer to your prayers. Thet's the track that this storm needs to take for all of Michigan to cash in.

That's the best model run i've seen all day, lol. I guess it's better it's at the end of the day vs. the beginning...

One hell of a cut off in SEMI though. Drive 20 miles and you go from 2-4" to 12". I'm on the 2-4" side.

I'll be brutally honest. BAM nailed this potential of a secondary low development yesterday and really stuck to their guns of a snow field that is now being projected by all the models.