Frog Town

If I’m remembering correctly, we had a super El Niño during the winter of 2015–2016. That November brought an unusually cold outbreak, with highs in the teens around midmonth, before a more typical El Niño pattern took hold for the rest of winter. With a recurving typhoon, Ural blocking, a weakening polar vortex, and other factors potentially lining up, I’m wondering whether we could see a similar November this year. Thoughts or rebuttals?

I think this includes all of us..

Goofus says what torch..

Concerned that convection over Tennessee is robbing moisture transport into the back end of the storm...

Wow! With 8" already you guys have a legit chance at hitting 20"

Just measured 4" here in Toledo. I think everyone in Ohio, outside of the snowbelt, had their guard up after years of dry slot, virga, wtod, etc., and then to wake up to this! We are all in shock, lol.

Phasing looks to be happening quicker leading to a slower coastal transfer. Hi -Res should be the first to see this.

I suspect at least Monroe and Lenawee will be added once all the hi-res 12Z data is in.

Nice trends overnight! This is all because MI was removed from the thread. Mother Nature's humor..

Why did we remove MI from the thread name? Watch this thing nail MI just to spite it, lol.

Assuming this is why the Winter Storm Watches extended NW a bit into Toledo. Imagine some will be added to SE michigan..

Difference between what we have beginning to unfold and what occurred in 2013-2014 is the amount of snow we had on the ground. 2013-14 started in early January with 15" otg. Also occurring 3 weeks later, which would argue for better results with climo.

Everything was just upped here from 1" to 2-3". Phasing earlier??

Great Met out of Toledo who would of satisfied the kid in all if we had social media back in the 80's and 90's, when I was a kid. Anyways, he does an awesome of job of getting into the science and behind the scenes stuff that most don't bother with. Great guy as well. He delves into the possibilities over the next few weeks. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1B3hupyCAs/

This! Whether is comes to fruition is another question but this is where we need the cold to get real action in sub..