Frog Town

Pattern looks pretty sweet for the OV late next week. Always worry about too much suppression in these set ups, but not sure about the SE Ridge flexing in these set ups. Would love to see a spread the wealth system but it's a weird time of year to get something like that..

Not often you see a dry slot and warm tongue with this orientation!!

It's back and 12Z was a juicy run.

0Z and 12Z Euro's are almost carbon copy's, weird.

Must be the new upgrade! I'll take it.

More like whatever drug the GFS is on. 11 days out...lock it in.

If I'm not mistaken, the following Winter was epic, I believe. I know 76'-77' was one of the coldest, but I can't remember is 75'-76' was as cold.

Hmmm, so logically, if we are in a cool phase but warm, then we will cool when we head into a warm phase. Sounds pretty straight forward. In all seriousness though, a few years back, maybe 2019-20 or '18/'19, all the local Mets sounded the alarm that things were lining up for a very cold and snowy Winter. I think it was end of November/early December which is a pretty safe time to make a Winter call. I've never seen Toledo Mets put it all on the line like this and it was pretty unanimous. Which ever winter it was, it ended being a bust. All this to say, I'm not overly concerned with the warm signals we are getting. If anything, it brings comfort knowing that I won't be disappointed.

Looking at the pacific currently, November is gonna be chilly. Almost a complete replication of November 2013. Not saying it's gonna stick like 2013-2014, but that sure would be nice.

I know it's early but it's hard to ignore how similar the pacific is currently, along with the recurving typhoons, to the fall of 2013....Just sayin.

It's starting to get very frustrating as we enter another neutral ENSO during the wrong time of the year. Here in the Midwest we've had a cooler than normal Summer only for it to flip during the fall/Winter and average above average with La Nina. It's been since the 2013-2014 that this has been the case. Here's your shitty Winter Forecast, early and for free.

~2" here in Toledo..so far

Same! Really indescribable and surreal.

Yup

Storms and Cold back on the docket for the last week in March with potential big dog stuff. Curious if it will stick, or just smoke and mirrors...