Frog Town

This! Whether is comes to fruition is another question but this is where we need the cold to get real action in sub..

Said it 1000x's already, we NEED the mean trough to be anchored in the upper Midwest/Plains for use to get what we want. Anything over the Great lakes is thread the needle hybrids and clippers, or what we've had the past two winters. Arctic air hitting the great lakes is what we want to happen after a big dog.. There is light at the end of the tunnel if the ENSO/Pacific can transition to a neutral as the it appears to be doing towards the middle of January. Question is, will it be too late??

If this works out, it will be a repeat of last year. I've said it a 1000x's before, the cold needs to be centered to our west for this sub to be in any kind of action other than the nickel and diming we've been experiencing.

I can be patient and wait 10 days for this pattern flip that seems to be modeled pretty well on just about everything, but I'm hoping it lasts for a few weeks. Hate to wait 10 days for something that lasts 5...

Seems like that's been progged pretty well and is apparently part of the pattern change mid-January that everyone is banking on.

Appreciate you. Thanks!

Does NW Ohio live in a radar gap or does the system truly depend that much on lake enhancement that the returns weaken that dramatically in our area? Seeking the expertise of an actual met. I mean, it's still snowing, but has nowhere near the returns it had 10 miles before entering NW Ohio.. Thanks!!

Exactly!

AKA the Irish Hills, yes. I believe it affects our storms in the Summer and snow in the Winter. More anecdotal, but other Mets have commented on it.

Where I sit in Sylvania, I believe we’re affected by subtle orographic descent off the glacial ridge to our northwest. I’ve seen it too many times to ignore—it often produces a noticeable drying effect, especially when systems approach from the NW.

Just need to keep that -NAO in check so we don't end of CAD...In this pattern, a weaker -NAO(with all other things being equal) is a what we want. I know the east coasters hate this but what's good for them is not necessarily good for us. -NAO is good for us when it comes to maintaining a winter like pattern locally, but ideally after we have a deep snow pack.

.5" here in Toledo metro so heavy stuff must of went just south of here.

I think there’s some wisdom in this. Kids growing up in today’s climate will, 20+ years from now, look back with snowy nostalgia on winters that followed this general pattern across much of the region. We bring this up often, and this is a good example of how fickle our memories can be when it comes to how things actually unfolded in the past.

If there's a place that's prepared for this last minute, it's your neck of the woods. Congrats!

This couldn't be more true. Southern 1/3 of DTX is in the rip-off zone between cutters and Miller b's.. May be why I get high anxiety is storms even when we have a Winter Storm Warning and 6+ forecasted. Seem it bust too many times.