Frog Town

Why did we remove MI from the thread name? Watch this thing nail MI just to spite it, lol.

Assuming this is why the Winter Storm Watches extended NW a bit into Toledo. Imagine some will be added to SE michigan..

Difference between what we have beginning to unfold and what occurred in 2013-2014 is the amount of snow we had on the ground. 2013-14 started in early January with 15" otg. Also occurring 3 weeks later, which would argue for better results with climo.

Everything was just upped here from 1" to 2-3". Phasing earlier??

Great Met out of Toledo who would of satisfied the kid in all if we had social media back in the 80's and 90's, when I was a kid. Anyways, he does an awesome of job of getting into the science and behind the scenes stuff that most don't bother with. Great guy as well. He delves into the possibilities over the next few weeks. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1B3hupyCAs/

This! Whether is comes to fruition is another question but this is where we need the cold to get real action in sub..

Said it 1000x's already, we NEED the mean trough to be anchored in the upper Midwest/Plains for use to get what we want. Anything over the Great lakes is thread the needle hybrids and clippers, or what we've had the past two winters. Arctic air hitting the great lakes is what we want to happen after a big dog.. There is light at the end of the tunnel if the ENSO/Pacific can transition to a neutral as the it appears to be doing towards the middle of January. Question is, will it be too late??

If this works out, it will be a repeat of last year. I've said it a 1000x's before, the cold needs to be centered to our west for this sub to be in any kind of action other than the nickel and diming we've been experiencing.

I can be patient and wait 10 days for this pattern flip that seems to be modeled pretty well on just about everything, but I'm hoping it lasts for a few weeks. Hate to wait 10 days for something that lasts 5...

Seems like that's been progged pretty well and is apparently part of the pattern change mid-January that everyone is banking on.

Appreciate you. Thanks!

Does NW Ohio live in a radar gap or does the system truly depend that much on lake enhancement that the returns weaken that dramatically in our area? Seeking the expertise of an actual met. I mean, it's still snowing, but has nowhere near the returns it had 10 miles before entering NW Ohio.. Thanks!!

Exactly!

AKA the Irish Hills, yes. I believe it affects our storms in the Summer and snow in the Winter. More anecdotal, but other Mets have commented on it.

Where I sit in Sylvania, I believe we’re affected by subtle orographic descent off the glacial ridge to our northwest. I’ve seen it too many times to ignore—it often produces a noticeable drying effect, especially when systems approach from the NW.