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dj3

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Everything posted by dj3

  1. dj3
    @RitualOfTheTrout That looks pretty similar to Jan 1994 right? That was high on the CIPS analogs. The low goes due north from myrtle beach and strengthening on the way. Extremely rare track but would be great for us if it can hold.
  2. dj3
    So how do we get this to hold for 96ish more hours?
  3. dj3
  4. dj3
    Yea that is way west from 00z. GEFS look like they took a big jump for us. Mean over 6 inches regionwide with several members over a foot.
  5. dj3
    Thanks. Yea I'd gladly take what it is showing regardless, especially with the cold look afterwards any significant accumulations will be awesome.
  6. dj3
    I am only settling for the top 3 GEFS ensemble members @MikeB_01 posted this morning due to them being higher than the spread of the Steeler game on Sunday night. I will adjust my expectations accordingly if we are winning at halftime
  7. dj3
    Cut back on precip totals some, especially east of the city. Still a nice run for now.
  8. dj3
    A lot of the western tracks on the ensembles (GFS and EURO only ones I looked at this morning) are actually pretty big hits for us. The mean isn't higher because there are still a decent number of suppressed solutions and misses east.
  9. dj3
    Looks like this would be a pretty nice hit on the ICON.
  10. dj3
    UKMET and EURO are still east enough that I think ground truth ending up between the GFS and other models would leave us happy. We are always walking a fine line, 24 hours ago we needed a huge west shift to even be in the game. We get it, and now we're already worrying about mixing haha.
  11. dj3
    CIPS analogs has 1/94 pretty high up there along with PD2 and Feb 2010 a little lower. GFS is starting to have the look of a hybrid miller A/B with a primary running up west and then transferring. That can certainly be good for us provided it doesn't hang on too long and we have a strong enough HP. A blend of the GFS and EURO at this point would be pretty solid for us I would think.
  12. dj3
    Interesting that the GFS OP doesn't seem to be caving at all with the western track for the last several runs. Euro did take us from nothing to at least a few inches, although on the western fringe like you said. I am sorta liking where we sit at this point.
  13. dj3
    18z eps looks east slightly from 12z. Lots of time on this and there will be some waffling back and forth. I just don’t want to see the ops start spitting out any really suppressed solutions again.
  14. dj3
    18z gefs still looks west of 12z correct or am I missing something?
  15. dj3
    Man, there are some deep solutions on the EPS. With GFS/EURO/CMC all shifted massively in the same direction it really makes me wonder if they are catching on to a big storm for someone. Not necessarily meaning us, just interesting to see such a big jump in lock step like that.
  16. dj3
    That is about as drastic shift in our direction we could hope for in one run on the EURO. Still time for things to trend more in our direction and I wonder with a low pressure that strong if we wouldn't see more qpf thrown back west.
  17. dj3
    12z 6z
  18. dj3
    Looks like a pretty substantial shift west in the tracks on the 12z GEFS. Most of them are hits for VA/MD/south of us but this looks to be trending away from a fish storm hopefully.
  19. dj3
    I would be perfectly fine with us being on the northern fringe of a bigger storm for even a light to moderate event. I just don't want to waste a decent week of cold with no precipitation or storm.
  20. dj3
    That's a run I'll be saving. Approaching 2 inches of liquid equivalent region wide so Kuchera wouldn't even be that far fetched.
  21. dj3
    Hope this trend is real that the op GFS seems to be picking up on the last few runs.
  22. dj3
    Where do we sign? I'm not sure how likely the evolution in getting to this frame is but I prefer this over the storm digging too far south from the midwest and heading out to sea.
  23. dj3
    After watching the first half and eliminating the possibility of a kneeling 70 minute game I went to bed thinking no chance it would organically make it into overtime. I am shocked that once in overtime it did not end up in a tie. I agree with both you and @RitualOfTheTroutthat it would be too complex to fix that type of result. But I do find it funny that multiple sportsbooks had liabilities in the millions for that game ending in a tie after the Jags moneyline hit.
  24. dj3
    Very light snow here currently. Will be tough to make 2-4 if rates don’t pick up. Nice to see the ground white and snow in there at least.
  25. dj3
    I would probably half as* the summer discussions and go all out for Dec-Mar ones because I am a snow .
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