dj3

Yea much better look from the op this run

It would be nice to see an op run show something other than cutter after cutter despite what the ensembles say.

From what I'm reading in the NE forum highly anomalous blocking events can lead to trouble with modeling while the block is getting established. Also I think we are so starved to track something we have to realize this storm is still over a week out lol so not that unreasonable to expect big shifts.

Yea I agree I wouldn't mind pushing it back if we have a wintry Christmas week.

Wild swings from run to run so maybe too early to write if off completely. It is looking like the good pattern is getting pushed more into mid month though.

You can already see the block making a big difference on the storm early next week that was a massive cutter into Wisconsin a few days ago. I think we're headed in the right direction come mid Dec.

Interested in hearing your or anyone else's thoughts on what is more important for our area (PNA/NAO) since it is looking boring for a little while. 2009/2010 was our last BIG storm and Jan 2016 being a narrow miss both had the massive -NAO. It seems like the last few times we've seen a decent blocking event materialize we waste a large chunk of it trying to get the airmass underneath the block cold enough. I know bigger events tend to occur during NAO phase changes so I'm guessing NAO is important for a big storm and +PNA/-EPO gives more chances at moderate events. Just curious if we are rooting for the same thing as the MA/NE since we don't quite fit into either region.

Boring week coming up. Maybe tracking this time next week?

Always in the mood to track snow haha. The models have been pretty consistent with showing some sort of storm Thanksgiving weekend and have moved away from the idea of a massive cutter. Also wondering if we could pick up some light snow tomorrow afternoon with a disturbance rolling through.

From Blizz in CPA thread.. What I wouldn't give lol....

Dynamic cooling for the win with the heavy rates.

It was really ripping from about 1:00-2:00. Over half an inch on top of the car and nice coating on the grass. Definitely makes me want to track something soon.

Starting as snowflakes in Robinson. Not expecting much, although the mountains look like they could pick up a few inches. I was hoping a disturbance would pop up in the short range so it wouldn't be cold/dry this weekend but not seeing anything at this point.

The distribution would be great during winter. I think the track would still be too close for comfort even in winter, it brings the low in pretty close to home. Check out the wintry 12z GFS extended

Can you imagine the dryslot/p-type concerns we'd be worrying about if the rain storm happening this Friday was happening a month from now?

Just had a brief burst of rain/snow/graupel move through Robinson.

Right on cue haha

Amazing how tolerable 90 with a dewpoint of 56 is compared to last Wednesday/Thursday.

What a mess with the train derailment. Just read an article that said boat traffic will be closed from the accident site all the way down to the point. This has to be one of the bigger boating weekends of the year I’d imagine.

Huge flakes driving in to work today for probably a good 30 minutes. Still snowing nicely now. This was a nice surprise event, hoping for one more fun trackable event Saturday.

Question for you guys since I haven't been following this storm at all since PA is warm sectored. I have a connecting flight leaving Midway tomorrow night at 10:15PM. Is the worst of the storm expected Thursday AM meaning we should be OK for take off? I see some wind and rain in the point and click forecast but it doesn't look like the changeover happens until after midnight? Thanks for any help or info you can provide and hope you guys cash in on some snow!

We were pretty spoiled in January as far as tracking goes. Feels like this week is dragging by with not much time to waste looking at models lol.

Roads were fine through the city

Back home and it’s 34. Turns out moderate rain at 34 is looking the same as moderate rain at 30 did.

Trying not to think about how much we would have with an all snow event. Moisture still stretched all the way back into Texas.