dj3
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Everything posted by dj3
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It is crazy that people way smarter than me don’t see what’s happening. Last cutter was modeled to have some snow behind. Maybe we get what we got last night. That’s a huge disappointment -
Good luck with the wrap around
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Yea that works out almost never with snow on the back end. Christmas a few years ago is the only one that comes to mind recently where there was actually appreciable snow when the front moved through and I believe there was a wave moving along the boundary which helped. I’d bet on brown ground unless this shifts significantly east.
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That was predictable. The optimist in me says this won’t be a coastal but maybe won’t be a huge cutter so I think we’re in better shape than I-95
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Don't worry at 18z the GFS will probably jackpot us as it begins to cave to the other models.
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I'm thinking that low that moves through the lakes Monday/Tuesday on the GFS is important in keeping the heights lower out ahead of our storm?
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CMC looks like the ICON.
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I think it is viewed as worse than the other models. GFS looks like its gonna be a beatdown.
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Euro Verbatim is pretty good for us. What we don't want is the Euro to show that frontal passage look it was a few days ago.. which the ICON just did lol.
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Depends on the angle it approaches. If it is negatively tilted and backs into eastern pa on a nw trajectory I doubt we’d mix. The Euro shows something similar to this. Gfs is more progressive and further off shore moving ne.
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@Rd9108bunch of acceptable hits in there for us.
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The snow mean actually looks decent so there must be some solutions with a track more inland than the op.
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Yep still a big storm signal but that particular solution would leave us with nothing to show for with the cold front coming through. Northern stream digs so far south that we miss out on even light accumulation and coastal pops too far east.
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Progressive GFS bias maybe at play?
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Looks way better than yesterday at least. Late phasing miller B probably isn't our wheelhouse but definitely better looking today.
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I know this map includes sleet but let's remember this for our first actual threat when we have to look at the NAM haha.
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Alarming and incredibly annoying even though it is only an OP run. Guidance continues to want to dump trough after trough into the west in what was supposedly our cold and active period.
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Euro OP says book the tee times in that period.
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Dry as a bone after the storm rolls through Thursday but don't worry it looks like it may try to cut the system on 22/23!
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At this point I’d settle for some lake effect snow showers behind the system Fri/sat but looks like we’ve lost that look as well.
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6z is still a moderate his as well. The trend has been to get the secondary low developing further south so hopefully the euro follows.
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Yea the pattern is finally moving forward I think we should be in for an active last half of December. Maybe delayed but not denied?
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Looking like we're pushing things back until the big cutter shown on 13/14th moves through. Frustrating wasting the first half of December.
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The Euro and CMC look better but both still a bit too warm for us.
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The GFS continues to drop the trough out west run after run.
