dj3

Thursday into Friday looks ALOT better on the GFS. Almost more of a miller A look.

JWilson had a good post from yesterday several pages back showing the trend on the GFS to weaken confluence up north and pump the SE ridge. The -NAO forecast from last week (top image) basically evaporated if you look at the image from this morning. I don't think we have seen really much of the north shifts that we are used to on the models this year up until this event. Probably a testament to how strong the blocking has been for much of the winter. Even with this storm it isn't our classic WTOD fail scenario where the mid atlantic has a cad wedge and snowing while we get slop. Anyway, as I type this it is pouring snow outside and I will gladly take any snow that comes our way . Frustrating that we had the rug pulled out from under us so close in, but at least we still have another chance to track on Thursday.

18z euro looked more north with 2-4 inches across Allegheny county.

Looks like the mix line stays south of pa border on that run

lock it up?

It’s about to hit it us with the second wave also. This could be a run to save LOL. ETA: probably still going to be messy on the second one but trending in the right direction

0z gfs run is probably the peak for mon/Tuesday. Overrunning and a perfectly squeezed primary into a coastal transfer.

Seasonal trend has been to de-amplify things so I think we are in a pretty good spot for Mon-Tues for mainly snow. Even the late week storm next week I would think we are still in the game, although high pressure looks like its departing so maybe more cutter risk with that one. Moisture doesn't look to be a problem for the next 10 days at least.

Couldn't agree more, most active tracking period in a while. I don't expect to get a flush hit from any particular wave but nice to see some appetizers for bigger potential next week.

With the Euro never really biting on the big storm the GFS had been showing for sunday, I think you could be right.

Yep, at least it would be a pack maintainer since we avoid plain rain. Also it looks like its loading up a storm for the 16th-17th like the Euro

GFS looks like it made a move toward the European on the weekend event. Gives a colder outcome but the system looks more disorganized.

Yep, I was surprised how much we had when I woke up this morning. I think we must have been under a nice band for quite a while last night. My sister lives more north towards freeport and didn't measure quite as much.

I agree, the Wednesday night into Thursday wave looks like it has trended south. I have noticed that the euro and gfs are developing snow again into the region again late Thursday night into Friday, almost like it has separated into 3 smaller separate waves now. Something to keep an eye on and nice to not be sweating any p-type concerns.

The Nam has a really narrow max precip band and you couldn't draw it up more perfect for Allegheny County. With cold temperatures and most of this falling overnight I wonder if this overperforms.

The Euro keys on a different wave than the GFS and develops a more significant coastal early next week instead of Sunday. Don't recall seeing that shade of pink over us before for snow haha.

Looks like a wintry week setting up. Will be interesting to see if we can get better than 10:1 ratios with either of the waves this week.

Looks to be a quick mover but I would take any snow to refresh what gets washed away later tonight.

Looks like there is potential for something bigger from around Feb 12-15th time frame.

Trend is our friend?

Don't forget the ICON model which gives us the MOST snow for Sunday.

Definitely. The next 2 weeks look to be plenty cold and active.

Looks like the trend for Sunday is less phasing and more late blooming coastal. Either way it looks frigid for Sunday night-Monday.